Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI

USA Today

19 hours ago

Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI
The 2025 Big Ten football season continues to draw closer. As of June 7, only 82 days remain until Rutgers, Minnesota and Wisconsin kick off their Week 1 games on Thursday, August 28.
We continue to pass important offseason milestones as we count down the days until the season begins. The latest milestone is the release of season power rating metrics, specifically ESPN's SP+ and Football Power Index. Once those numbers are released and updated through the spring, the countdown to the upcoming season can truly begin.
This topic is timely because ESPN released its FPI for the 2025 season earlier this week. With SP+ already out, we now have a full picture of what to expect when the games kick off.
As a reminder, here is how ESPN describes the methodology behind its Football Power Index.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
That picture is both sport-wide and conference-specific. While it's valuable to compare the Big Ten's best to the top teams in the SEC, Big 12 and ACC, it's also important to focus on how the 18 Big Ten members line up.
For that specific lineup, here are ESPN's FPI's record predictions for every Big Ten football team in 2025, ordered from lowest to highest. They're also compared with our recent win-loss projections for each team after spring practice.
Purdue Boilermakers
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 3.2 - 8.8
FPI Rating: -6.9 (No. 92 overall)
Purdue enters 2025 with low expectations. New coach Barry Odom won't have much trouble improving on the team's 1-11 2024 campaign. But anything more than three wins would be surprising. The FPI gives the Boilermakers only a 6.3% chance to make a bowl game
Northwestern Wildcats
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.1 - 7.9
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 3-9
FPI Rating: -3.6 (No. 74 overall)
Northwestern forms the Big Ten's bottom tier with Purdue. David Braun was the conference's coach of the year just two years ago after leading the Wildcats to an 8-5 record in his first year in charge. 2024's 4-8 output created questions about the sustainability of that success. The FPI sees a repeat of that performance in 2025.
Michigan State Spartans
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.2 - 6.8
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 6-6
FPI Rating: 2.3 (No. 59 overall)
Michigan State needs to build momentum somehow, whether on the field or the recruiting trail. Since the latter is not happening at the moment, Jonathan Smith will need to show significant improvement when the team takes the field for his second year in charge. The FPI gives the Spartans a 42.4% chance to reach a bowl game and quiet the outside noise.
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire
UCLA Bruins
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 8-4
FPI Rating: 4.6 (No. 47 overall)
UCLA is one of our breakthrough picks in 2025. The FPI disagrees, forecasting another fringe-bowl season for the program. Tennessee transfer QB Nico Iamaleava will have a significant say in the season's result.
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
Wisconsin Badgers
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6 - 6.5
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 6-6
FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 38 overall)
Wisconsin is not far down this list due to a lack of quality -- the team holds a top-40 ranking entering the year. It is instead due to a gauntlet schedule that includes games against the FPI's No. 3 (Alabama), No. 4 (Ohio State), No. 6 (Oregon), No. 17 (Michigan), No. 27 (Washington), No. 31 (Indiana) and No. 39 (Iowa) teams. The Badgers would do extremely well to make a bowl game, something the FPI gives them a 51.1% chance to do.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 4-8
FPI Rating: 3.5 (No. 55 overall)
The FPI gives Rutgers a 57.1% chance to extend its bowl streak to three seasons. We're less optimistic about the team's chances after it lost numerous defensive starters and contributors to the portal or graduation.
Maryland Terrapins
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 5-7
FPI Rating: 1.9 (No. 61 overall)
Mike Locksley might need a bowl-eligible season to keep his job. Maryland just hired a new athletic director, which only heightens questions surrounding the program after its 4-8 record last season. The FPI gives it a 59% chance to reach the postseason, thanks in part to an easy nonconference slate.
Iowa Hawkeyes
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 7-5
FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 39 overall)
Iowa can be projected as a fringe-six-win team entering 2025, but history matters. The Hawkeyes haven't won fewer than seven games in any non-COVID season since 2012, and only once since 2000. Given that trend, I'll comfortably predict another seven or eight-win campaign.
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
Illinois Fighting Illini
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 10-2
FPI Rating: 5.0 (No. 44 overall)
Unlike most other metrics and ranking systems, the FPI is low on Illinois entering 2025. A mid-40s ranking leads to a 7-5 record projection. We see a breakthrough season for the program, potentially leading to a College Football Playoff appearance.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9 - 5.2
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 7-5
FPI Rating: 5.2 (No. 43 overall)
Minnesota is beginning to enter the Iowa tier of the conference, where seven wins feels like an annual occurrence. The FPI gives the Golden Gophers a 79.2% chance to reach a bowl game and a longshot 4.3% chance to reach the CFP.
Washington Huskies
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 8-4
FPI Rating: 8.8 (No. 27 overall)
Washington is another of our breakthrough picks in 2025, especially if young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. pans out. The FPI agrees, slotting the Huskies as a fringe-top-25 team. The schedule is a challenge, but don't be surprised if Washington threatens a playoff spot this season.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
Indiana Hoosiers
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 6-6
FPI Rating: 8.3 (No. 31 overall)
Indiana is an interesting test case entering 2025. The team lost significant production off a stellar 2024 team. However, coach Curt Cignetti proved last year that he doesn't need years of continuity to win at a high level. The FPI gives the Hoosiers an 87.5% chance to reach a bowl game and an 8.9% shot to return to the CFP.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 8-4
FPI Rating: 9.3 (No. 25 overall)
Projections are high on Nebraska entering the season. The Cornhuskers are the FPI's sixth-highest-ranked Big Ten team, with a 1.5% chance to win the conference title. The team's success, or lack thereof, will come down to the development of sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola, who showed flashes during his true freshman season.
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
USC Trojans
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.3 - 3.9
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 8-4
FPI Rating: 13.0 (No. 19 overall)
USC always finds itself near the top of the FPI. The metric gives the Trojans a whopping 21% chance to make the CFP and a 4.2% shot to win the Big Ten. Remember, those numbers are for a program that is just 15-11 over the last two seasons.
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
Michigan Wolverines
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.4 - 3.7
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 9-3
FPI Rating: 14.6 (No. 17 overall)
The question surrounding Michigan entering 2025 isn't whether the team will be good. The question is whether it is good enough to contend for the Big Ten and reach the CFP. The FPI's prediction is a bit measured, giving the Wolverines a 25.3% chance to reach the CFP and 6% shot to win the conference.
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
Oregon Ducks
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.0 - 2.4
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 9-3
FPI Rating: 20.5 (No. 6 overall)
Oregon begins the Big Ten's top tier entering 2025. That tier mirrors the 2024 standings, which doesn't come as a surprise. The Ducks are an odds-on favorite to return to the CFP (57.5%), with a 4.3% shot to win the national title.
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
Penn State Nittany Lions
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.2 - 2.2
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 11-1
FPI Rating: 21.5 (No. 5 overall)
Penn State finally broke through in 2024. With it returning its starting quarterback and its two star running backs, expectations are even higher entering 2025. The FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 25.1% shot to win the Big Ten, a 63.8% chance to return to the CFP, a 14.4% chance to, unlike last season, reach the national title game and a 7% chance to win it.
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.4 - 2.2
Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 10-2
FPI Rating: 23.8 (No. 4 overall)
The only numbers that matter for Ohio State are its win-loss result against Michigan, which it hasn't defeated in a half-decade, and its chance to win the national title. The FPI has the latter at 10.8% entering the year, tied for the third-shortest with Alabama. Only Texas (24.1%) and Georgia (17.9%) have better odds.
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
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