Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Stream José Soriano, add Alex Vesia and other THE BAT X insights

New York Times

04-08-2025

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly rundown to inform fantasy managers about the road ahead.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
If you're looking for a starting pitcher, THE BAT X suggests adding Dodgers lefty Alex Vesia, who is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and some enticing Statcast metrics. His Whiff% is in the 87th percentile, and he boasts an incredible 35.8 K% (98th percentile).
As for streamers, THE BAT X thinks Angels' righty José Soriano, still available in shallower leagues, could have a 3.15 ERA against the Tampa Bay Rays. He uses a mix of pitches but relies on his sinker and forces ground balls.
As for hitters, Tyler Freeman is on the 'Waiver Targets: Hitters' list and has a .306 average on the season. He doesn't hit for power but has great plate discipline and 13 stolen bases on the season.
The trade deadline is nearing, and if you believe Mookie Betts can turn his season around as the leadoff man for the hard-hitting Dodgers (and THE BAT X does), he could be available for a good price. Betts has struggled this season with a .233 batting average, but he still has 11 home runs and 8 stolen bases. His plate discipline is still stellar, and he's waiting for good pitches. If he can get his swing figured out and you get him at a good price, he could help you as the season closes.
Another trade target, Corey Seager, had a terrible June but a phenomenal July. He's started slowly in August, but that could mean getting him at a good value. Even though his Whiff% is in the 21st percentile, his BB% is in the 92nd, and he can give you power. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% are all 93rd percentile or above. Look to the fades list to see who you could swap for the Rangers shortstop, who THE BAT X predicts will finish strong.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. However, the point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their worth for the remainder of the season.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. The projections indicate that you might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above to see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven't yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire a player on the come-up for a good value.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. The 'Fantasy $Value' indicates a player's value in the matchup listed, while the 'Underlying $Value' refers to the skill level or expected performance of the player based on THE BAT X's advanced metrics and context-neutral data outside of the specific matchup listed. It's the player's value without external conditions like ballpark, the opponent, weather and their position in the lineup. It helps to separate a player's raw core ability from the value in a given matchup.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Some of that underperformance can be chalked up to luck, and they're likely to rebound to numbers closer to their xwOBA.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. Based on matchups, these five teams are projected to score the most runs this week, meaning the individual players on each team could have fantasy values that exceed their underlying values. This list could help you identify streamers or make tough decisions in weekly lineups.
The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Because these players are more available, you may find a streamer worthy of a start in a competitive league if you need help in pitching categories. Otherwise, the list can aid in making tough roster calls.
Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value. Two-start pitchers are valuable in weekly lineups, and these projections can help you find a plug-and-play option. The projected stats can also help you decide who to start, who to bench and who to replace.
The pitchers on the following list may be aces or above average, but they are projected to be in tough matchups that could hurt category stats or points in daily and weekly lineups.
Based on matchups, the following bullpens are ripe with relievers to stream this week. If you have RP spots to fill or improve, this is the list for you.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of José Soriano: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)