Is Xi Jinping attempting to secure his grip on power?
Chairman Xi Jinping secured a constitution-busting third five-year term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022. The normal process of selecting his replacement, due to take office in 2027, would usually begin next month.
But Xi has overseen the removal of more than 20 senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) commanders from the navy, army, air force and nuclear rocket force.
'The fact that these high-profile purges are occurring now is not lost on outside observers,' argues Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) political scientist Professor Taylor Fravel.
'In 2027, the PLA will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding. It is also the year by which Xi expects China's armed forces to have made significant strides in their modernisation.'
It's also the year former CIA director Bill Burns warned had been set as a deadline 'to conduct a successful invasion' of Taiwan.
Is the purge of generals a sign that Xi is doubling down on his plans to seize Taiwan?
Or does it demonstrate a behind-the-scenes struggle for power?
'We do not have any clear, unequivocal signs of a political crisis. We have the echoes of something happening in the depths of CCP politics,' observes Jamestown Foundation president Peter Mattis.
Concentration of power
The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) leading military oversight committee, the Central Military Commission (CMC), has had three of its six military commanders removed.
Defence Minister Li Shangfu disappeared in 2023, several months before the Party issued a notice announcing his expulsion.
Admiral Miao Hua, Director of the Political Work Department, was dismissed for 'serious disciplinary violations' last month.
And Vice Chair General He Weidong, who is also a member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee, has not been seen in public for nearly six months.
'Never before has half the CMC been dismissed in such a short period,' Professor Fravel states. 'Even stranger is the fact that all three generals had previously been promoted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.'
The Commission had 11 members when Xi took power in 2013. It was reduced to seven in 2022. Now, it's down to just four. And one of these – its chairman – is Xi.
' Xi's opinions are unlikely to be questioned, creating a lack of intellectual diversity and fostering a potential echo chamber,' argues Singapore analyst Dr Zi Yang.
However, Professor Fravel warns that internal disarray may not necessarily mean any intention to invade Taiwan, and the South and East China Seas have been deferred.
'If the recent purges harm the PLA's readiness and reflect Xi's confidence in the PLA, then opportunistic uses of force may be less likely in the near to medium term,' he states. 'But if Xi views military action against Taiwan as necessary, he will still order the PLA into battle.'
Military dominance
The gutting of the Central Military Commission is just the highest profile part of Chairman Xi's purge.
For example, two of Admiral Miao's naval colleagues – Admirals Li Hanjun and Li Pengcheng – were also dismissed earlier this month.
Pinning down the extent of the clear out is proving difficult for Western analysts.
'The CCP rarely announces them, and even when they are publicised, the charges leading to dismissal are often vaguely described only as violations of discipline,' says Professor Fravel.
One cause may be corruption. Especially in light of the massive graft within President Vladimir Putin's oligarch-governed military that led to the failure of his invasion of Ukraine. A recent Chinese incident, according to US intelligence, involved rocket force troops syphoning off fuel from nuclear missiles to use in cooking as their kitchens were not being maintained.
'CMC members and other senior officers may also have been removed if they were deemed to be using personnel appointments to create their own power centres, or 'mountaintops,' within the PLA,' the professor adds.
This would challenge Chairman Xi's core demand: Loyalty.
But their removal could come at a price – in competence.
'The tense atmosphere of fear and conformity, conditioned by the recent purges, certainly gives Xi the strongest voice in defence affairs, despite lacking a strong military resumé,' argues Dr Zi. 'Xi's directives override all others, and professional officers are unlikely to challenge him.'
'The Party directs the gun'
The Communist Party's core Politburo last month announced the creation of a new 'Central Committee decision-making and co-ordination body'. The role of its 205 Party members is to 'enhance the centralised and unified leadership of the CCP Central Committee over major initiatives'.
The announcement took pains to warn all members against 'taking over others' functions or overstepping boundaries'.
The creation of this new governing body has prompted some to question Chairman Xi's grip on power. Why was he made a simple member, and not named as its 'core' component? Will the body wield any real power?
The Communist Party has no obvious successor for Xi.
And that indicates the 'Great Navigator' intends to remain at the helm for life.
A key test would be whether the traditional Plenum – a meeting of central committee members to discuss policy and leadership appointments – takes place as scheduled next month.
It's traditionally the point at which the next leader is selected.
'They all agree on restoring their version of China to a forgotten glory, and they largely agree how that should be done,' says Mattis. 'The party's elite, however, do not agree on whose hand should guide the party-state'.
But Chairman Xi has ensured that his finger rests firmly on the trigger of his military.
'Following the principle of 'the party directs the gun,' orders from the CMC shape decisions on all military matters … reassuring the CCP's control over the armed forces,' Dr Zi argues.
'While Xi may find comfort operating within a close-knit group of loyalists, the repercussions of a hollowed-out CMC could significantly impair the PLA's warfighting capabilities.'
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