Amundi on what the U.S. wants from the China trade talks
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Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
5 Reasons Trump's Trade Deal With China Is Bad News for the Middle Class
President Donald Trump's latest trade deal with China may look like a diplomatic win, but for the American middle class, it comes with hidden costs. Trending Now: Find Out: While tariffs are being reduced in exchange for promises from Beijing, households could still face higher prices, disrupted supply chains and reduced job growth. Here are four reasons Trump's trade deal with China is bad news for the middle class and what families can do to protect their finances. Higher Consumer Prices Despite Tariff Relief Even as the U.S. and China approach an August trade deal deadline, prices on many consumer goods remain elevated, and middle-class households continue to feel the strain. Some experts argue that the new tariffs may not drastically shift average import prices. However, middle-class families are more likely to feel the impact in specific categories, such as electronics, tools and household goods. 'U.S. companies scrambled to import as many goods as possible to stockpile before new tariffs were fully implemented, mitigating the immediate impact of tariffs on prices,' said Bryan Riley, Director of the Free Trade Initiative at the National Taxpayers Union. Riley said that since imports from China account for just 13.2% of total U.S. imports, increases in the price of specific Chinese goods may not push up the overall import average. However, they can still significantly affect middle-class budgets for everyday items. Read More: Erosion of Real Incomes and Job Losses An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco warned that Trump's trade measures could cut national real income by around 0.4%, while losses in services and agriculture might offset job gains in manufacturing. 'What's pitched as economic growth is actually a slow bleed: Manufacturing jobs won't magically return, and small businesses relying on predictable import costs are about to face more whiplash,' said Patrice Williams Lindo, CEO of Career Nomad. 'Wages stay stagnant while everyday costs climb. And here's the kicker — there's no workforce investment baked into this deal. That means your job security, benefits and opportunities to grow could evaporate, especially if your industry leans heavily on exports or global sourcing.' Volatile Markets and Supply Chain Instability Although the China deal eased recession fears, experts said that uncertainty around ongoing tariffs still disrupts manufacturing and logistics. Businesses may hold back investment or retool supply chains, raising costs for middle-class consumers and slowing hiring. For example, uncertainty remains one of the most significant threats to economic momentum, particularly for businesses making long-term decisions. 'The real issue is that this deal doesn't create clarity. It reinforces an environment of 'wait and see,' Robert Khachatryan, CEO and founder of Freight Right. 'That's not how you build confidence in the economy.' Khachatryan added, 'You can't expect small and midsize businesses, who employ a huge portion of America's middle class, to plan for the future when they're stuck playing defense against the next round of tariffs.' Missed Middle-Class Priorities in the Deal While the latest Trump-China deal touts manufacturing wins, some economists warn it overlooks the broader economic trade-offs that directly affect the middle class. 'We have an experiment,' said Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, in a recent interview on Conversations with Jim Zirin. 'In 2018, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel. Seven years later, we have 1,000 more steelworkers, but 75,000 fewer workers in manufacturing sectors that relied on steel, and a 30% drop in steel sector productivity.' This kind of trade-off may deliver political wins, but it overlooks how tariff-driven policies ripple into everyday life for the middle class. 'Over time, reduced job stability in trade-sensitive sectors and a slowdown in wage growth may exacerbate economic insecurity for families already stretched thin by inflation and debt servicing costs,' said Jean-Baptiste Wautier, a private equity CIO and World Economic Forum speaker. How To Protect Your Budget Middle-class families can shield themselves by using rewards or rebate programs and strategically stockpiling essentials before potential tariff increases. Julian Merrick, founder and CEO of Supertrader, a fintech firm focused on global markets, recommends starting with a small emergency fund, even setting aside $200 to $300, which can help families avoid debt when unexpected expenses arise. 'It also helps to cut back on spending in categories where prices are rising — things like tech, clothes or imported goods,' Merrick said. 'Families should avoid taking on new high-interest debt right now, especially for non-essentials. And for those with investments, make sure the money is spread out across different industries.' Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates 6 Hybrid Vehicles To Stay Away From in Retirement This article originally appeared on 5 Reasons Trump's Trade Deal With China Is Bad News for the Middle Class Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
27 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
US, China Negotiators Conclude Stockholm Trade Talks Round
US and Chinese negotiators have concluded their latest round of trade talks, conducted in Stockholm. The talks followed previous rounds in Geneva in May and in London in June.
Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
IMF upgrades outlook for global economy, citing less-than-expected damage from Trump's trade wars
WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund is upgrading the economic outlook for the United States and the world this year and next because President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies have so far proven less damaging than expected. The IMF now forecasts 3% growth for the global economy this year. That is down from 3.3% in 2024 but an improvement on the 2.8% it had forecast for 2025 back in April. The 191-country lender, which works to promote growth, stabilize the world financial system and reduce poverty, expects world growth to come in at 3.1% next year, up a tick from the 3% it had forecast three months ago. Trump's decision on April 2 – 'Liberation Day,'' the president called it -- to impose taxes of 10% or more on U.S. imports from most of the world's countries had been expected to be a bigger drag on global growth. But the damage was limited, the IMF said, partly because many U.S. importers scrambled to bring in foreign goods before Trump's tariffs took effect and partly because Trump ended up suspending his biggest levies (including a 145% duty on Chinese goods). 'This modest decline in trade tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far,' IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a press conference Tuesday. 'This resilience is welcome, but it is also tenuous. While the trade shock could turn out to be less severe than initially feared, it is still sizeable, and evidence is mounting that it is hurting the global economy.'' Tariffs raised $108 billion for the U.S. Treasury from October through June, nearly double the $55.6 billion they brought during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Global growth of around 3% is below pre-pandemic average and the world economy would be growing faster without Trump's trade wars. The IMF modestly upped its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% this year and 2% in 2026 when the big tax cuts Trump signed into law July 4 are expected to provide 'a near-term boost.'' The Chinese economy, the world's second biggest, is expected to grow 4.8% this year, a hefty upgrade from the 4% the IMF had forecast in April. China is getting a boost from lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs and from government spending. The 20 economies that share the euro currency are collectively expected to expand 1%, up from the 0.8% the IMF had forecast in April. But a big chunk of that growth is coming from a surge of pharmaceutical exports from Ireland, which were timed to beat Trump's expected tariffs on drugs. Japan remains in a slow-growth rut and is expected to eke an expansion of just 0.7% this year and 0.5% next. India is once again expected to be the world's fastest-growing major economy, expanding a forecast 6.4% this year and next. Trump has pressured Japan and the European Union to accept 15% U.S. tariffs on their exports. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines also agreed to accept stiff U.S. tariffs. More such deals are expected before Friday when Trump will slap even higher tariffs on countries that don't agree make concessions. Trump's protectionism is buffeting global commerce. The IMF upgraded its forecast for growth in world trade, measured by volume, to 2.6% this year. That is up from the 1.7% it had predicted in April and reflects a surge in shipments as exporters tried to beat the tariff crunch. But eventually the higher U.S. levies are expected to take a toll. The IMF sees trade growing just 1.9% next year, down from the 2.5% it had forecast in April. Trump has also unsettled financial markets by openly and repeatedly criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed's reluctance to cut American interest rates. Powell has said that the central bank must wait to better understands the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. That same message was delivered last week by the European Central Bank, which is also holding off on rate calls to measure the impact of Trump's tariffs. At the press conference Tuesday, IMF chief economist Gourinchas spoke up in favor of keeping central banks like the Fed independent from political pressure. 'The evidence is overwhelming that independent central banks, with a narrow mandate to pursue price and economic stability, are essential'' to containing inflationary pressure, he said. The Fed and other central banks raised rates after inflation flared up in 2021 and 2022. They managed a so-called soft landing — bringing inflation down without causing a recession. 'That central banks around the world achieved a successful 'soft landing' despite the recent surge in inflation owes a great deal to their independence and hard-earned credibility,' Gourinchas said.
