Numbers have to add up when deciding on closure of Hong Kong schools

South China Morning Post

12-06-2025

Hong Kong's dwindling school-age population and low birth rate continue to put the education sector to the test. This is reflected in a growing number of schools losing government subsidies and having to be merged or axed because of insufficient enrolment. Given the trend is unlikely to turn around any time soon, more institutions may well shut in the coming years. Therefore, authorities should work with stakeholders to ensure a soft landing for the schools and students affected.
Critics fear the new class-size regulations may well accelerate the demise of some disadvantaged schools. The Education Bureau has also raised the minimum number of students required to operate a class and scrapped alternative options that may give struggling schools a reprieve.
As a result, the pupil threshold for a secondary school operating a Form One class will be raised from 25 to 27 starting in September. The requirement will be further tightened to 29 in 2026-27. Currently, secondary schools need to have at least two Form One classes, or a total of 26 students, to continue operating. With the changes, a school will have to enrol at least 28 students to run two classes to survive the coming academic year, and 30 pupils in 2026-27.
Class sizes will also be subject to closer monitoring. Instead of a so-called annual headcount to ascertain numbers for Form One and Form Four every September, the exercise will be conducted in two other junior grades from September 2027-28, when the minimum two-class requirement for Form One will be extended to Form Two and Form Three.
With the number of 12-year-olds estimated to drop from 58,800 this year to 49,800 in 2031, the challenges facing schools are unavoidable. The Education Bureau said the new rules aimed to offer quality education and address the needs of parents. But the shrinking population and higher threshold are also bound to make enrolment more difficult for some schools, especially those that are already struggling.
Schools already on the brink of closure or merger may be excused for feeling dismayed and perplexed as to why the authorities are seemingly making it more difficult for them to survive. There are also concerns that popular schools will be able to enrol additional students and run extra classes, while even more schools for those not so good academically will be axed or merged at a quicker pace.