Saudi Shockwave, Russian Sanctions, and a Crude Comeback--Is $60 Oil Just the Calm Before the Storm?
Brent crude is clawing its way back. After dipping below $60 earlier in the week, the benchmark rebounded 0.7% as US tech earnings lit a fire under equity markets and whispers of Trump easing tariff threats lifted investor sentiment. But let's not confuse a bounce with a breakthrough. The bigger story is the undercurrent of supply pressureApril's selloff was no fluke. With both the US economy contracting and Chinese factory activity hitting its worst levels since 2023, the demand backdrop remains fragile.
And yet supply is about to get interesting. OPEC+ jolted markets last month with an unexpected production boost, and the Saudis may not be done. Reuters reports that Riyadh is signaling it can stomach lower pricespotentially setting the stage for another output surge at the May 5 meeting. Add in new barrels from Guyana, and you've got a market bracing for oversupply. Traders are pulling back ahead of OPEC, said Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. Translation: the risk-on trade is pausing while everyone waits to see if Saudi Arabia is about to flood the zone.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical backdrop is anything but calm. Senator Lindsey Graham says he has 72 votes lined up for a bill to slap bone-crushing sanctions on Russia and impose tariffs on nations still buying its oil. The US is also cracking down harder on Iranian and Venezuelan crude. So while inventory data showed tighter US fuel supplies, macro risks continue to build. For energy-exposed names like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), this isn't just about priceit's about navigating the sharp turns ahead.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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