The poisons of power balances

Arab News

2 days ago

https://arab.news/pyhta
The first component of wisdom is a precise assessment of the balance of power. It is indispensable in war, revolution or a coup d'etat. The balance of power is an almost inescapable consideration that cannot easily be written out of the equation. Ignoring it usually leads to catastrophic consequences, but while force wins wars, it does not necessarily guarantee durable stability.
Vladimir Putin read the balance of power. He knew that the West would yell after waking up to see Russian tanks erasing what it called an international border with Ukraine. However, NATO would not risk sending troops to defend a country that is not a member of the alliance. The US would impose sanctions and make threats, but it would not send its forces and risk raising the specter of a third world war. He calculated correctly and now his army is continuing to devour more territory, having already secured control over the lands annexed by Russia. However, history shows that coercion and subjugation cannot become the basis for lasting stability.
The people of the Middle East have their own long and painful history with the balance of power. In 1967, Gamal Abdel Nasser did not dwell on the regional balance of power or its equations. His announcement of the closure of the Straits of Tiran and decision to mobilize Egypt's army drove Israel to launch the war that led to the occupation of Sinai, the West Bank and the Golan Heights — a war that only deepened the glaring imbalance of power in the region.
Anwar Sadat concluded that Egypt could not tolerate the occupation of Sinai. He coordinated with Hafez Assad and waged the war of 1973. Despite the achievements of the Egyptian army, the course of the war ended up being a stark reminder of the balance of power's painful dictates. Sadat realized that Sinai could not be taken back by force; accordingly, he chose to accept the facts on the ground, eventually recovering the land through the Camp David Accords.
Assad launched a vicious campaign against Sadat, but he too quietly accepted the harsh logic of the balance of power and understood that forcefully reclaiming the Golan Heights was impossible. Instead, he opted to compensate for this loss. 'Recovering' Lebanon was within reach and he managed the country and consolidated the presence of his forces.
This is what makes the two-state solution, a cause that Saudi Arabia has played an active and influential role in pursuing, so important.
Ghassan Charbel
When Fatah fired its first shot on the first day of January 1965, Yasser Arafat was dreaming of reclaiming all his people's occupied land with the barrel of his gun. His long and bitter battles taught him cruel lessons about the realities of the balance of power from Tel Aviv to Washington. That is how we got the scene of Arafat shaking hands with Yitzhak Rabin in the Rose Garden of the White House, and why we saw him accept the dream of a state on part of this land and the painful concession of the rest.
From his residence in France, Ayatollah Khomeini spoke candidly to Saddam Hussein's envoy. He told him that the overthrow of the 'infidel Baath regime' was the second item on his agenda, after toppling the shah's regime. Khomeini's dream was to take down Saddam's regime, especially when Iran gained the upper hand in the war with Iraq. However, the balance of international power did not allow Khomeini to realize his dream and he was ultimately forced to swallow the bitter poison and accept a ceasefire.
Saddam, for his part, ignored the realities of the balance of power when he ordered his forces to invade Kuwait. He did not consider the need to avoid an American invasion of Iraq, framing the event as 'a battle for the dignity of the nation,' as Yemen's former foreign minister Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi told our newspaper.
Let us leave the past and turn to the present. When the Israeli air force began destroying the weapons of 'Assad's army,' President Ahmad Al-Sharaa had no choice but to accept the constraints of the balance of power. This imbalance only deepened after Israel succeeded in driving Iran out of Syria and dealt a painful blow to Hezbollah and its leadership in Lebanon. When the crisis erupted in Sweida, Al-Sharaa found himself with no option but to heed the balance of power's dictates once again.
President Joseph Aoun, along with his government, is now experiencing the bitterness of this power balance and its shifts following 'the flood.' Israeli drones continue to violate Lebanese airspace, carrying out targeted assassinations. The president knows that disarming Hezbollah is the condition that the US and international community have demanded of Lebanon for reconstruction and aid.
We must not forget the poisons of the balance of power and the constraints they have imposed on the Palestinian Authority. Since Hamas' attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has been in a frenzy of vengeance and the pursuit of victory. There is no denying that its war machine, with backing from the US, succeeded in crushing Gaza, asserting control over multiple regions' airspace and carrying out incursions into Syrian and Lebanese territory.
The current balance of power is clear: the Palestinians are not well placed to reclaim their rights by force, neither now nor in the foreseeable future. The same can be said of Syria, which must prioritize building a state of institutions that preserves unity and coexistence, opening the door to stability and prosperity. Lebanon's Hezbollah is similarly incapable of launching a new war against Israel, neither now nor in the foreseeable future.
Faced with imbalances of this magnitude, the weaker side has no real options. It can only turn to international legitimacy. The principles of international legitimacy offer protection from the injustices currently imposed by the balance of power. It is also essential for addressing the key issue: the injustice inflicted on the Palestinian people, which has been the root cause of instability across the Middle East.
The poisons of the balance of power can only be remedied by returning to the principles of international legitimacy. Only these principles can guarantee a just peace. That is what makes the two-state solution, a cause that Saudi Arabia has played an active and influential role in pursuing, so important. The most recent fruit of this diplomatic momentum was the French president's announcement that his country would recognize the state of Palestine.
Brutality, domination and erasure can only leave the Middle East sleeping over barrels of gunpowder. Its nations need a moment to catch their breath, fight poverty, allow the displaced to return, pursue development and join the modern world. The solution is not to surrender to the dictates of the balance of power. The solution is to do everything possible to empower international legitimacy.
• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel
This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.