Russian oil price in roubles has stayed below the 2025 budget target
The weakness is largely the result of a stronger rouble, which has risen around 45% since the start of the year on the basis of an easing in geopolitical tensions and the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank.
International oil prices priced in dollars, at the same time have lost about 10% of their value.
According to the estimations, the average price of Russia's oil blend, calculated for taxation purposes, reached 4,701 roubles per barrel in the first two weeks of July, around steady with June's level but 11.1% below the updated budget's target.
The finance ministry said last week the budget deficit reached 3.69 trillion roubles ($47.31 billion), or 1.7% of gross domestic product, in the first half of the year, the same as expected for the full year.
Russia raised the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of GDP in April from 0.5% after reducing the energy revenue forecast by 24% in anticipation of a prolonged period of lower oil prices.
State spending on national defence was hiked by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, the highest since the Cold War, as the country continued its war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Economic uncertainty and increased output from OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, has weighed on oil markets.
The rouble oil price is calculated on the basis of a Russian currency rate of 78.39 per $1 in the first two weeks of July and an average price of $59.97 per barrel.
The government targets an oil rouble price of 5,281 roubles per barrel and a rouble rate of 94.3 per $1, while the dollar denominated price is set at $56 per barrel.
($1 = 78.0000 roubles)
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