Reds vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks

Fox Sports

19 hours ago

Data Skrive
The Cincinnati Reds and TJ Friedl head into the first of a two-game series against Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres on Saturday at Great American Ball Park. The favored Reds have -156 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Padres, who are listed at +130. Cincinnati is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total is 9.5 runs for the matchup (with -120 odds on the over and -101 odds on the under).
Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Reds-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.
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Check out the best moments between the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres. Reds vs. Padres Game Information & Odds When: Saturday, June 28, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
How to watch on TV: FDSOH and SDPA Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds Reds -156 +130 9.5 -120 -101 -1.5 +133 -157 Reds vs. Padres Prediction Score Prediction: Reds 4, Padres 3
Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Reds 53%, Padres 47% Reds vs. Padres Betting Insights This season, the Reds have been favored 34 times and won 17, or 50%, of those games.
Cincinnati has entered nine games this season favored by -156 or more and is 6-3 in those contests.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.9% chance of a victory for the Reds.
The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 38 games this year and have walked away with the win 18 times (47.4%) in those games.
This season, San Diego has come away with a win six times in 16 chances when named as an underdog of at least +130 or longer on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 43.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. Reds Recent Betting Performance The Reds went 3-1 across the four games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Reds and their opponents combined to hit the over four times.
The Reds have gone 6-4-0 against the spread over their past 10 games. Reds Recent Stats Stat Avg/Total Record 6-4 Runs Per Game 4.5 HR 7 ERA 3.93 K/9 9.6 Reds Player Insights Elly De La Cruz is the Reds best power option, crushing 18 home runs this season in addition to delivering 55 RBI, both team highs.
Including all MLB batters, De La Cruz ranks 44th in batting average, 47th in on-base percentage, and 18th in slugging.
De La Cruz carries a six-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is hitting .341 with a double, two triples, three home runs, two walks and eight RBIs.
TJ Friedl is hitting .287 to pace his team.
Friedl ranks 123rd in homers and 123rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
Gavin Lux is hitting .266 with 14 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 32 walks.
Lux will look to build on his two-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .133 with a home run, a walk and four RBIs.
Spencer Steer is batting .243 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 20 walks.
Steer is riding a five-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is batting .450 with a double, a triple and two RBIs. Padres Recent Betting Performance The Padres have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and have gone 1-3 in those contests.
The Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times in their last 10 games with a total.
Over their last 10 games, the Padres are 4-6-0 against the spread. Padres Recent Stats Stat Avg/Total Record 5-5 Runs Per Game 4.1 HR 9 ERA 4.34 K/9 8.4 Padres Player Insights Manny Machado paces the Padres with 47 runs batted in while putting up a team-best batting average of .298.
Among all hitters in the big leagues, Machado ranks 39th in homers and 30th in RBI.
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 15 home runs are a team-high total.
Tatis is 27th overall in home runs and 80th in RBI this year.
Luis Arraez is batting .288 with 16 doubles, four triples, three home runs and 13 walks.
Gavin Sheets has 12 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 22 walks while batting .263.
Check out the best moments between the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres.
FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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