Five Signs of Growing Risk of US War With Iran

Newsweek

09-05-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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The relationship between the United States and Iran has become increasingly volatile in recent weeks, marked by a series of military provocations, stalled nuclear talks, and shifting diplomatic dynamics.
Both nations continue to face off over issues ranging from Iran's nuclear ambitions to its expanding military capabilities and influence in the Middle East. While both sides have expressed a desire to avoid full-scale war, several developments suggest the risk of direct conflict is rising.
Newsweek has reached out to the State Department and Iran's foreign ministry for comment.
Why it Matters
The growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are largely due to the strain on nuclear negotiations, escalating military developments, and proxy conflicts. As both nations brace for potential confrontation, Iran's military advancements are seen as significant steps in its strategy to counter U.S. influence. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions have shown little sign of progress, with the latest round of talks between Washington and Tehran expected in the coming days. Deadlock increases the likelihood that both sides could turn to military action as a means to resolve their disagreements.
Soldiers march during a military parade to mark Iran's annual Army Day in Tehran on April 18, 2025.
Soldiers march during a military parade to mark Iran's annual Army Day in Tehran on April 18, 2025.
Atta Kenare/AP Photo
What To Know
The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has taken a hardline "maximum pressure" approach toward Iran, while Iran's leadership has consistently stated its readiness to defend the country against any military aggression. Tensions have also been exacerbated by Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. allies and military assets in the region.
Here are five signs that the risk of conflict is increasing:
1. U.S. Deployments
The U.S. has significantly bolstered its military presence in the region in a clear signal of growing concern over Iran's regional ambitions. In May 2025, four B-52 bombers were deployed to Diego Garcia, a U.S. base in the Indian Ocean roughly 2,000 miles (3,218 kilometers) from Iran. The base also houses six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers as part of an ongoing Bomber Task Force mission. Meanwhile, two aircraft carriers—the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Carl Vinson—have been operating in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, respectively. These deployments underscore Washington's increased state of readiness and serve as a forceful message of deterrence aimed at Tehran.
This photograph captured on May 8, 2025, by the U.S.'s Landsat 8 satellite shows U.S. Air Force bombers and other support aircraft parked at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, a joint British-American air base in...
This photograph captured on May 8, 2025, by the U.S.'s Landsat 8 satellite shows U.S. Air Force bombers and other support aircraft parked at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, a joint British-American air base in the British Indian Ocean Territory, or Chagos Islands. More
U.S. Geological Survey
2. Iran's Military Advancements
Iran, in turn, has responded with notable enhancements to its own military posture, particularly in asymmetric warfare capabilities. As U.S. forces expand their footprint, Iran recently unveiled an underground drone base. This facility, built to house reconnaissance drones such as the Mohajer-6, enables Iran to monitor U.S. naval movements in the Persian Gulf. The base's fortified, subterranean design signals Tehran's intent to survive potential airstrikes and prepare for sustained conflict.
At the same time, Iran has introduced the Qassem Basir missile, a medium-range ballistic system with a 750 mile (1,200 kilometer) reach. Engineered to evade interception by U.S. defenses such as THAAD, the missile presents a direct challenge to Western military dominance and poses a potential threat to regional allies like Israel.
3. The Israel Factor
Israel's role in the confrontation is growing increasingly pronounced. Long wary of Iran's expanding military reach, Israel has signaled its readiness to act unilaterally if needed. The recent explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port has fueled suspicions of Israeli involvement, reinforcing concerns about covert operations — although Iranian authorities said it was due to negligence. In a pointed warning, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated, "Whoever harms us – we will strike back sevenfold," directly linking Iran to proxy attacks and vowing full retaliation. Katz also emphasized Israel's right to act independently: "Israel must be able to defend itself on its own against any threat and any enemy."
A Russian-made S-300 air defense system is carried on a truck during a parade commemorating Iran's National Army Day in front of the shrine of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, just outside Tehran, Iran,...
A Russian-made S-300 air defense system is carried on a truck during a parade commemorating Iran's National Army Day in front of the shrine of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, just outside Tehran, Iran, Friday, April 18, 2025. More
Vahid Salemi/AP Photo
4. Trump's Middle East Visit
Adding to the geopolitical backdrop, Trump is set to embark on a regional diplomatic tour with visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The trip is intended to reinforce alliances and confront growing security challenges, particularly those posed by Iran's rising military assertiveness. However, the omission of Israel from the itinerary is striking, given its strategic importance to U.S. policy in the region. Whether this reflects a tactical shift or a move to de-escalate tensions with Iran remains uncertain.
5. Nuclear Talks
Parallel to military maneuvers, diplomatic efforts continue but remain precarious. The fourth round of nuclear talks—originally delayed—is now scheduled for Sunday in Oman. However, fundamental disagreements persist: the U.S. demands a halt to uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, while Iran maintains its right to peaceful nuclear development and says it has no intention of buiding nuclear weapons. With trust eroding and little progress made, the diplomatic window appears to be narrowing, heightening the risk that regional tensions could tip into open conflict.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters outside the West Wing of the White House, Thursday, May 8, 2025, in Washington.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters outside the West Wing of the White House, Thursday, May 8, 2025, in Washington.
Evan Vucci/AP Photo
What Happens Next
As military tensions rise and diplomacy struggles, the U.S. and Iran stand at a pivotal moment. A breakdown in nuclear talks could lead to more sanctions or military action from Washington, while Tehran is likely to keep expanding its arsenal and using proxy forces to pressure U.S. allies. With both sides hardening their positions, the risk of open conflict is growing, and the coming weeks may determine whether de-escalation is possible—or if confrontation becomes inevitable.