Dollar nudges higher ahead of Jackson Hole meeting and war talks
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The Journal
2 hours ago
- The Journal
What parts of Ukraine could Vladimir Putin ask for in exchange for an end to the war?
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR Zelenskyy held talks with his US counterpart Donald Trump in Washington last night aimed at bringing about an end to Russia's war in his country. The meeting, which took place alongside several European leaders, was worlds apart from the disastrous scenes seen in February, when Trump and his vice president JD Vance rounded on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. Despite assurances from Trump that Russian president Vladimir Putin accepted Western security guarantees for Ukraine at a summit in Alaska last week, there was little mention of any potential ceding of land by Ukraine. It is believed that Putin wants Ukraine to give up some of its territory in the east of the country in order for Russia to end the conflict. It's understood that in exchange for this, Moscow would agree to 'freeze' the front line in regions where Russian forces hold swathes of territory, but not the regional capitals. But what land is Moscow seeking, and how likely is it that Zelenskyy would even consider conceding territory? What territory does Russia want? Putin is understood to have told Trump last week that he wants Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, also known as the Donbas. These areas have seen the deadliest battles of the war so far. The regions run from Mariupol in the south all the way up to the northern border with Russia. Before the invasion, they were home to over six million people, but the remaining population is now difficult to determine due to millions having left since the start of the war. During the Soviet era, the regions had a heavily industrialised industry, particularly for coal and steel production. They also have a significant proportion of farmland. A map of Ukraine marking the disputed territories in red, including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and parts of Zaporizhzhia. Shutterstock Shutterstock In September 2022, Russia held 'referendums' and illegally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – the same thing it did in Crimea in 2014. It has been trying to capture all of the Donbas since then, but it has never had any of the four regions fully under its control. Why does Putin want the Donbas? Donnacha Ó Beacháin, Professor of Politics at DCU who has worked and researched in the post-Soviet region for over two decades, told The Journal that Russia controls almost all of Luhansk and the majority of Donetsk. 'But there are important cities which they don't hold and haven't been able to take, despite the three-and-a-half years of full-scale invasion,' he said. He said that while both regions are predominantly Russian-speaking, they do not have an ethnic Russian majority. Advertisement 'There is this attempt by the Kremlin always to conflate Russian speaking with ethnic Russian. When I was there giving lectures for over a number of periods in Donetsk, the students I met there were Russian-speaking Ukrainians,' he said. 'That's borne out by census figures, it's borne out by opinion polls in terms of self-identification. Of course, there are people who identify as Russian as well, but the demographics have shifted a lot since the war. A lot of people have left.' Given their locations, Ukraine fears that Russia taking control of Donetsk and Luhansk would be detrimental to its defence and would allow Moscow to regroup and begin attacks deeper into the country. 'It's a substantial piece of territory, and it's very well fortified,' Ó Beacháin said. 'It includes cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which, if the Ukrainians were to hand them over to the Russians, it would mean that Ukraine would be much easier to attack in the future.' What are the conditions like under Russian occupation? For those still living in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, the regions are treated as parts of Russia. The Russian constitution recognises them as Russian territories, and has forced Ukrainians in the regions to adopt Russian passports. Weather forecasts shown on Russian television will include those regions as part of Russia, even though they don't control all of the territory. Moscow has been encouraging people to move to some cities in the region in order to rebuild them, including Mariupol. The city was taken by Russian forces after a brutal siege three months into Russia's invasion. Ukraine estimates over 25,000 people were killed. Recently, Russian influencers have shared content from Mariupol suggesting that life there is normal, something that has been disputed by Ukrainian residents . Other recent reports show there are acute water shortages in some parts of Donetsk, with residents pleading with Russia for help . The brutality of what happened in Mariupol serves as a warning to others living in the occupied regions not to act out. 'As in any regime, some will cooperate. Some will keep their heads down. They won't resist, but they don't want the current situation,' Ó Beacháin said. 'Some will be actively trying to resist. But the difficulty in resisting, of course, is the punishment can often be death, so you don't get really active acts of defiance if people can avoid it.' Along with encouraging Russians to populate the regions, the educational curriculum has been completely changed to a Russian one, with the Ukrainian language banned. 'It's only recently acquired and they don't know how long they will hold it for, because the battle lines shift as time goes on. Some parts, like Kherson, were captured and then had to be handed back to the Ukrainians because of their military advances.' How likely is it that Zelenskyy will give up territory? Almost impossible, according to Ó Beacháin. The Ukrainian president has repeatedly said that he would not be willing to hand over any of his country to Putin. Ukraine's constitution outlines that changes to its territory can only be made through referendums. 'The Ukrainian constitution is quite clear in the territorial definition. You couldn't possibly have a situation where a President could sign over territory. It would be unconstitutional,' Ó Beacháin said. Related Reads Trump tells Zelenskyy and European leaders that Putin 'accepts' security guarantees for Ukraine Opinion: For Ukraine, it's a case of 'if you're not at the table, you're probably on the menu' 'It would be impossible in the foreseeable future to have a referendum of any legitimacy, because millions of people have left Ukraine. Many people are under occupation. How would you have a referendum that would be recognised and legitimate?' The chance that Russia would abide by a 'land for peace' agreement is low. The Budapest Memorandum in 1994 saw Russia agree to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders in return for Kyiv giving up its nuclear arsenal. It went on to invade Crimea. The subsequent Minsk agreements were also broken when Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say you would have something approaching civil war in Ukraine, were any Ukrainian government just to hand over territory that was in Ukrainian hands now. Ó Beacháin added that doing this would also be 'political suicide' for Zelenskyy. 'I can't see him doing it, unless he feels that he could do it almost like an act of personal self sacrifice, recognising that his political career is over… but he doesn't strike me as somebody who would avoid responsibility at critical moments.' What happens next? Putin and Zelenskyy have both said they are prepared to meet each other after the meeting in the US yesterday – but whether a territorial swap is on the cards remains to be seen. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed that such a decision would potentially send the wrong message, even though it would be for Ukraine to make. Addressing whether Zelenskyy would be forced to give up territory to Russia, Macron said it was 'up to Ukraine'. 'Ukraine will make the concessions it deems just and right,' he said, but added: 'Let's be very careful when we talk about legal recognition.' 'If countries… can say, 'we can take territory by force', that opens a Pandora's box.' Part of the problem for Zelenskyy and Ukraine is a potential lack of American support from this point onwards. Ó Beacháin said the US 'already have one foot out the door' when it comes to supporting Ukraine. 'Essentially, Trump's big threat is 'we'll walk away', but it's clear that they're walking away anyway,' he said. 'To use Trump's terminology, [Zelenskyy] doesn't really have many cards with Putin or the Europeans or the Ukrainians.' Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... Our Explainer articles bring context and explanations in plain language to help make sense of complex issues. We're asking readers like you to support us so we can continue to provide helpful context to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay. Learn More Support The Journal
Irish Examiner
3 hours ago
- Irish Examiner
Four key takeaways from Trump's White House summit on Ukraine
Donald Trump has hosted leaders from across Europe as part of a flurry of diplomacy to find a path to peace in Ukraine. Coming just days after a disappointing summit with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in Alaska, the pressure was on to make headway in a years-long conflict that the US president once said he could solve in 24 hours. Below are some key points arising from the US president's range of bilateral and multilateral talks with the leaders of Ukraine, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Finland, the European Union and Nato. Read More Putin and Zelenskyy to meet, Donald Trump says following European leaders summit 1. A meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin ... could it finally happen? A bilateral meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin is something the Russian president has always resisted, urging for a list of conditions to be met first, but the possibility may now be nearer than ever. Donald Trump said after the White House talks: 'I called President Putin, and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy. After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two presidents, plus myself.' European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, from left, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finland's President Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump, France's President Emmanuel Macron, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pose for a group photo in the Grand Foyer of the White House, Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) According to the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, Mr Putin told Mr Trump in a call during Monday's White House meeting that he was ready to meet Zelenskyy 'within the next two weeks'. For his part, Zelenskyy reiterated on Monday that he was ready for talks with Putin. Mr Merz and the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, both offered some pointed language on the topic, saying in separate press conferences that it remained to be seen if the Russian president had the 'courage' to go ahead with the meeting. Mr Stubb said: 'Putin is rarely to be trusted.' So far, the Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov has said only that Putin and Trump discussed the idea of 'raising the level of representatives' at Ukraine talks. Ushakov, in his comments late on Monday, did not specify what he meant by raising the level at meetings, and did not address the possibility of a trilateral meeting between the leaders. 2. Need for security guarantees agreed – but details unclear Although Trump poured cold water on the importance of a ceasefire, he did offer hope on US involvement in helping guarantee Ukraine's future security. After welcoming Mr Zelenskyy to the White House, he said: 'When it comes to security, there's going to be a lot of help,' even if European countries need to be 'a first line of defence'. Later, Mr Trump said in a post that these guarantees would be 'coordinated' with the US. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks in Lafayette Park, across from the White House, after meeting with President Donald Trump and European leaders Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) On Monday morning, Mr Zelenskyy described security guarantees as 'a key issue, a starting point towards ending the war' and appreciated Trump's indication that the US was ready to be part of that guarantee. Mr Zelenskyy said those guarantees would be 'formalised in some way in the next week or 10 days', which can prove to be a long time when it comes to diplomacy involving Trump's White House. In a social media post late on Monday, Mr Trump said the White House talks included plans for European countries to provide security assurances to Ukraine, with the US acting as 'coordinator'. As western leaders discussed security guarantees at the White House, Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement rejecting any prospect of Nato personnel being deployed in Ukraine. 'We reaffirm our categorical opposition to any scenarios involving the stationing of a Nato contingent in Ukraine,' the ministry said. 3. Trump believes he is very good at solving conflicts The US president's desire for a Nobel peace prize is well known – who can forget the 'Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity' established as part of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan this month – and it seemed clearly in his mind during his Oval Office meeting with Mr Zelenskyy. United States President Donald J Trump leads President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom, President Alexander Stubb of Finland President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the Italian Republic Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US. Picture date: Monday August 18, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Aaron Schwartz/PA Wire The 'peacemaker-in-chief' said he had ended six wars since he became president, with his administration claiming to have helped settle the conflicts between Israel and Iran, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, and Egypt and Ethiopia. But, as Andrew Roth explains, it is a claim that stretches the realities on the ground. 4. A potential boost for the US arms industry Mr Trump's approach to foreign crises is peppered with efforts to find a way to establish economic opportunity for US industry, and Ukraine may be no different if a deal is finalised. Mr Zelenskyy has, after all, previously had to negotiate the US president's desire for Ukraine's critical minerals as part of his rivalry with China. President Donald Trump, seated center, speaks during a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, seated from left, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the East Room of the White House, Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy indicated that the price of obtaining security guarantees from the US included a pledge to buy $90bn of US weapons, primarily aircraft and air defence systems. He added that the US would also buy into Ukraine's drone program, an area in which it has made significant strides since Russia's full-scale invasion began. Earlier, the Financial Times reported that the drone deal was worth $50bn.
Irish Post
3 hours ago
- Irish Post
Energy cable linking Ireland to France breaks ground with Celtic Interconnector
A CRITICAL phase of the €1.6 billion Celtic Interconnector project is now underway, with the start of subsea cable installation marking a key step toward creating Ireland's first electricity link to mainland Europe. The project, developed by Ireland's EirGrid and France's Réseau de Transport d'Électricité, aims to support renewable energy integration and stabilise electricity prices by enabling the flow of up to 700 megawatts (MW) of electricity between Ireland and France. This is enough energy to power nearly half a million homes. Cable laying began earlier this week off the coast of East Cork using the Norwegian specialist marine vessel Calypso. The vessel is currently installing an 84 km stretch of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable along a carefully mapped route on the seabed. Two additional vessels are handling the burial of the cable to protect it from marine activity and environmental impacts. The full interconnector will span 575 km, with 500 km of undersea cable, linking Claycastle Beach in Co. Cork to the northwest coast of Brittany, France. Once operational, it will serve as the only direct energy link between Ireland and continental Europe. The Calypso, equipped with both deck and below-deck carousels capable of carrying up to 8,000 tonnes of cable, is performing the summer cable-laying operation during optimal weather conditions. Marine survey teams had previously mapped the seabed to determine the safest and most efficient route. Onshore, construction efforts continue at pace. Extensive ducting and trenching have been carried out between Claycastle and the Ballyadam converter station near Carrigtwohill. Civil works at the 11-acre Ballyadam site, led by Siemens Energy, are nearly finished. This station will convert HVDC electricity arriving from France into high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) for integration into the Irish grid via the Knockraha substation. So far, 97% of trenching and ducting between Youghal and Ballyadam is complete, and three 200-tonne transformers are expected to arrive at the converter station later this month. Meanwhile, HVAC cable installation between Ballyadam and Knockraha has been finalised, with road reinstatement works underway in collaboration with Cork County Council. EirGrid's Project Manager Shane Cooney said the interconnector has been in development for more than a decade and is now at a critical implementation stage. 'This project is of national significance and also holds importance at a European level,' said Cooney. 'It has secured over €500 million in EU funding, based on its potential to connect Ireland to the wider EU electricity market, balance power prices, and support the integration of renewable energy.' EirGrid Chief Infrastructure Officer Michael Mahon echoed the sentiment, attributing the project's smooth progression to strong collaboration between Irish and French teams, as well as local community support. 'This is a feat of engineering made possible by years of collaboration, innovation, and commitment,' Mahon said. 'It's a pivotal step in ensuring the future resilience of our energy system.' Initially expected to be operational by spring 2028, recent updates suggest the Celtic Interconnector could be live as soon as next year, pending the timely completion of marine and onshore works. Beyond reducing reliance on emergency electricity measures, EirGrid reports that the interconnector is expected to fill Ireland's forecasted electricity capacity gap in 2027 and 2028. However, further reinforcements may still be necessary to meet longer-term demand. The Celtic Interconnector is being co-funded by the EU's Connecting Europe Facility and forms a cornerstone of Ireland's broader strategy to decarbonise its power system and integrate with the EU energy market. See More: Celtic Interconnector, EU, Energy, Undersea Cables
