Tropical Storm Erin expected to become season's first hurricane by Friday
Sweeping through the Atlantic Ocean, Erin is heading toward Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. It is forecast to become a 'large and formidable major hurricane' as soon as Friday, the National Hurricane Center said in a Thursday night advisory.
The tropical storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane on Friday and then 'rapidly intensify' into a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday afternoon, Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, said in a statement Thursday.
'There is a window of opportunity where Erin could explode into a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic,' DaSilva warned.
Heavy rains and flash floods could ravage the islands this weekend and into next week, the National Hurricane Center predicted.
On Thursday night, Erin was 690 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds whipping at 70 mph.
NOAA aircraft data indicates Erin is 'near hurricane strength,' the hurricane center warned Thursday evening.
A tropical storm watch was in effect for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.
The storm killed at least nine people this week in Cape Verde's island of Sao Vicente, where torrential rains, strong winds, and flash floods slammed the area, according to a report from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Five people were missing and 1,500 people were displaced due to the storm. The government declared a state of emergency.
In preparation for when the hurricane makes landfall, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced he was deploying resources from his home state to Puerto Rico.
'I just approved the deployment of California resources to Puerto Rico ahead of Tropical Storm Erin,' he wrote in a statement shared to social media on Thursday evening. 'We're glad to help coordinate life-saving response to Americans in harm's way.'
The Federal Emergency Management Agency also said it 'stands ready to support local officials in Puerto Rico & the U.S.V.I. who are leading the preparation & response efforts as Tropical Storm #Erin threatens to impact the islands.'
The agency wrote in a statement: 'Our teams are on the ground and staging resources, including generators ahead of the storm.'
Erin is the fifth storm named this hurricane season, which spans from June 1 through November 30.
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Scientific American
20 minutes ago
- Scientific American
How to Decode a Hurricane Forecast
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Above is an example of what you might see if you visit the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) website during a storm in progress—in this case it's an archived forecast from 2024's Hurricane Milton. Various broadcasters, news sites and other groups that cover the weather often have their own versions of this map. There's a lot happening here, so let's break things down piece by piece. Timeline First off, because the cone-of-uncertainty graphic is a depiction of a forecast, it's looking into the future. Each update to the map shows the storm's current location, then roughly where the center of the storm will be over the next three to five days (depending on which version you are looking at). Cone of Uncertainty This is the centerpiece of the graphic—the actual cone of uncertainty—so called because it is an indicator of the possible error range in that forecast of where a tropical storm or hurricane is headed. The first key point in understanding the cone is that the error isn't based on the specific storm forecast; rather, it's an average of the overall forecast error over the past five years. So the more forecasts improve, the narrower the cone gets. The cone gets its shape because 'the uncertainty increases with time,' says Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. It's easier to forecast the near future than several days out. And because the error is based on that long-term forecast average, 'you get the exact same cone all year long for every storm,' McNoldy says. It can appear different—for example, more squat or elongated—because of how fast or slow the storm is going. The cone is meant to encompass where a storm actually goes two thirds of the time, so 'the cone is designed to fail one third of the time,' says James Franklin, former chief of the NHC's Hurricane Specialist Unit. 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The letters show whether a storm will be a tropical depression (D), tropical storm (S), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (M). (A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.) A black circle means the storm is a tropical cyclone, or one that derives its strength from heat-driven convection at its core. A white circle denotes a potential tropical cyclone (one that could become a tropical cyclone) or a former one—often a storm that is now extratropical, meaning it is driven more by a temperature difference across a weather front than by convection. There are also color-coded indicators of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. But these indicators are only based on a storm's wind speeds—they don't suggest anything about potential storm surge, rainfall or tornadoes, all of which can be threats from tropical cyclones. 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The cone graphic as it exists now can still be useful when looking out four or more days before a storm might arrive to get a general sense of where it is now and where it is going—for example, if a storm in the Gulf of Mexico looks likely to curve into Florida, people in New Orleans may not need to be as alert. 'It can be a decent starting point in just getting oriented into what the threat might be,' Franklin says. 'It's a good place to start, but you don't want to stop there.' Other Sources of Hurricane Information So where should you go for more useful hurricane information? Paying attention to a trusted local weather source, such as your local National Weather Service office, is generally the best bet for keeping up with impacts specific to your area and what steps need to be taken, such as whether to evacuate. The NHC also has maps that show when tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds are likely to arrive at given locations and detailed maps showing expected storm surge levels. Much of this information is pulled together on the National Weather Service's Hurricane Threats and Impacts Tool, as well. This interactive map overlays the cone of a storm on top of wind, tornado, storm surge and rain threat information. You can click a given location and it will tell you what hazards you need to be concerned about. One of the most important things to remember no matter what forecast you're looking at is that forecasts change. Small variations in the storm itself or the larger atmospheric patterns can shift a storm's path or intensity. Human brains can naturally fall prey to the 'anchoring effect'—we can become mentally rooted in one specific forecast and base our decisions on it rather than updating our thinking as conditions change. 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Yahoo
an hour ago
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Hurricane Erin tracker: Storm surge warning issued in North Carolina as Category 2 storm starts to head northeast — see the latest path
Beachgoers are being urged not to swim at most East Coast beaches due to dangerous surf conditions. While Hurricane Erin is beginning to turn toward the northeast, a storm surge warning has been issued in North Carolina because "large and dangerous waves" could cause "surge-related flooding" along the coast, the National Hurricane Center said. Erin is currently a Category 2 storm, and rip currents and high tides are expected to occur later today, with waves expected to peak between 2 and 4 feet along the Outer Banks, N.C. The rough surf conditions from Erin could affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and beaches up and down the East Coast over the next several days. "Beachgoers are cautioned against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents," the hurricane center said. Officials in North Carolina have already declared states of emergency in Dare and Hyde Counties and ordered mandatory evacuations of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, even though the storm isn't forecast to make landfall. But tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to make an impact on the barrier islands. North Carolina Highway 12 is the primary road that connects the islands in the Outer Banks and separates the Sound side from the Atlantic Ocean side. It's expected to be torn up and washed out in several places from the impacts of Erin, which could isolate villages for days or even weeks. Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path? As of 8 a.m. ET Thursday: Erin was located 440 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and about 210 miles east of Cape Hatteras, N.C. 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Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles. How is hurricane season shaping up? The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), of which up to five could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph). A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
Yahoo
an hour ago
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Hurricane Erin moves away from North Carolina after battering outer banks
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