New Jersey's ‘choose-your-own-adventure' primary for governor: Crowded field of Democrats makes it anyone's guess

Yahoo

19 hours ago

The final days of the primary for New Jersey governor have, at times, looked more like a general election.
The Democrats' perceived frontrunner, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, has been attacked by her primary opponents over old stock trades and prior donations from Elon Musk's company's PAC. But rather than responding, she has largely trained her focus on Republican Jack Ciattarelli, President Donald Trump's preferred choice in the race.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are the favorites to win their respective primaries Tuesday, but this race — particularly the Democratic side — is the most uncertain that New Jersey has seen in recent history. Without the so-called county line, which gave party-backed candidates a leg up in the primary with a better spot on the ballot, the strength of the political establishment will be tested.
Although Sherrill does have a significant amount of support from party insiders, each of the six Democratic hopefuls have struggled to run away from the crowd and scarce public polling shows them within striking distance of each other. By comparison, Ciattarelli has seen a more significant lead over his closest primary competitor, Bill Spadea.
Each of the Democrats do have a conceivable path to victory on June 10. But in order to overcome Sherrill, many of them are counting on unusually high turnout and traditionally unreliable primary voters. In an election year without the county line, her primary opponents argue that past turnouts are not indicative of what could happen this time around. But many of these contenders have overlapping constituencies, further complicating the calculus.
'We have no idea who's going to vote,' said Dan Cassino, director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. 'So it really is a choose-your-own-adventure.'
In a race that's expected to have a low turnout, the nomination could be clinched by just a couple of thousand votes — and a small percentage of the overall electorate.
As the only woman in the race, Sherrill appears to have an advantage with female voters, who generally tend to turn out at higher rates than men. In an interview with the Breakfast Club last month, Sherrill said she's the best candidate 'Because I'm the only woman, message is in the medium' — before cutting herself off and turning to her more traditional talking points.
But even from her position as relative frontrunner, her campaign acknowledged in a memo this week that 'undecided voters are keeping many options open.' The memo argued that 'it is resonating with black women who receive their media through digital advertising that Mikie is the candidate Republicans fear.'
Even Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who has been running his campaign for more than two years — longer than anyone else — acknowledged to reporters after a recent debate that 'every single person has a pathway to win.'
Most of the candidates, with the exception of Sherrill and fellow Rep. Josh Gottheimer, announced their campaigns well over a year ago. Still, all that time hasn't been enough to make one of them a solid frontrunner.
And then there's the money factor. In the last week of the election, candidates have blitzed the airwaves to boost their name ID. Over the final seven days of the race, Sherrill has the spending edge on advertising, with close to $3 million placed between her campaign and super PAC, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Gottheimer and his affiliated PACs have placed $1.5 million. The other candidates and the outside groups supporting them do not break the $1 million threshold in the final stretch of the election.
It's difficult to model just what the primary electorate will look like this year, given the national political environment. But particular to New Jersey is the major change to ballot design. The lack of the county line is injecting uncertainty into the first open Democratic primary since 2017, when now-Gov. Phil Murphy cleared the field by locking up the support of county parties who then gave him prominent placement on ballots, helping him to elbow out his rivals.
Sherrill has won the support of most of the county parties in North Jersey — and with that their turnout machines. While it is difficult to draw conclusions from early voting data, Hudson County — which has a robust get-out-the-vote effort and backed Sherrill — has the highest early Democratic in-person vote turnout so far, according to data compiled by the Associated Press. Overall early voting, including in-person and returned absentee ballots, has been the highest in Camden, Middlesex and Bergen counties, which endorsed Sweeney, Sherrill and Gottheimer, respectively.
In this post-line world, just because a candidate has support of the local party, that doesn't mean that they're getting all of the votes in that county.
A Democratic candidate may win with just around 20 percent of the vote. It's unclear what exactly turnout will look like — it is an off-year primary election, after all — but some view 2017 as a good baseline, given the fact that Trump was in office then. Around 500,000 Democrats cast ballots in that primary.
Many of the candidates seem to be betting on high turnout, even if they are counting on voters who don't usually show up.
The different turnout theories mirror larger debates in the Democratic Party — should they try to appeal to moderates or try to motivate the traditional base that turned away from the party in last year's election.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who leads the state's largest city, is betting he can be a Barack Obama-like 'motivating force' for African American voters in the Garden State, according to a campaign memo from earlier this spring. Since then, his high-profile arrest by the Trump administration has seemed to galvanize his supporters and fire up progressives — though it's to be seen how many new supporters it drew in. The charge against him has since been dropped and he is suing the top federal prosecutor in New Jersey for defamation.
That Baraka memo, addressed to the Working Families Party's board in April, criticized other campaigns for mailers and handouts that are 'regularly' thrown right into the trash and argued 'people will be shocked by Mayor Baraka's vote total this June' because of local organizers knocking on their neighbors' doors. Baraka has the support of many local progressive groups with strong ground operations.
'See, the problem, why 500,000 people stayed home for Kamala [Harris] and over a million for Phil Murphy, is because when people went to vote, they couldn't convince the other people in the house to come vote with them,' Baraka told reporters at a campaign event. 'And the only reason they couldn't convince them to come vote with them was because they didn't believe in the candidate themselves. People voted out of obligation.'
Other Democrats have expressed skepticism about that argument, pointing to low voter turnout in Baraka's backyard as a sign that he's trying to turn out an unreliable base, especially in primaries where voters can be more conservative and white.
Fulop is competing for many of those same potential progressive Baraka voters. But he could have an advantage with young voters — he earned the endorsement of the College Democrats of America and the College Democrats of New Jersey — whom he said are motivated and are 'disillusioned' with current policies. Fulop's campaign has been rooted in an anti-political machine message. Youth turnout in New Jersey has hovered around 20 percent in the last two gubernatorial general elections, though primary turnout could be lower.
Gottheimer and Sweeney may also be fighting for some of the same moderate Democrats, blue collar voters and seniors; both have rolled out policy plans focused on affordability and targeting older New Jerseyans. Voters 50 and older typically have strong turnout — though again, primary turnout is generally lower than a general election.
Meanwhile, Gottheimer may have a leg up when it comes to the Jewish community, as he recently earned the endorsement of an influential group of Jewish leaders. And as the only candidate from South Jersey, Sweeney could have a geographic advantage if the other candidates split the vote further north.
But Sherrill's campaign thinks she's doing well among these voters that her opponents are vying for, including moderates and liberals. They also see her doing well with veterans like herself, as she has made her background as a Navy helicopter pilot a prominent aspect of her campaign.
Backers of New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller are hoping his campaign can chip away at Sherrill's apparent advantage with women because many teachers are women. If Spiller got many of his union's members to vote and to bring a friend or family member to the polls to support him, he'd be in good shape.
A super PAC supporting Spiller has already spent more than $8 million on canvassing. That's more than his rivals' actual campaigns are allowed to spend in total, which would give him an advantage — if the voters he hopes for show up.
Murphy said all of the Democrats looking to replace him have a credible plan for success.
'It's an unusual — on my side of the aisle — very unusual governor's race, that you have six folks, each of them when they stand up and describe their lane, they're credible,' he said. 'These are not pie-in-the-sky lanes, which is pretty impressive.'