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Brad Setser: Chinese Yuan to remain stable vs. U.S. dollar, but on a weaker level as USD has weakened

Brad Setser: Chinese Yuan to remain stable vs. U.S. dollar, but on a weaker level as USD has weakened

CNBC12-05-2025

CFR's Brad Setser sees the Taiwan dollar and Korean won to strengthen, but warns of 'no possibility of a US-Korea deal soon'.

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Canada announces new aid to Ukraine worth approximately US$25.5 million
Canada announces new aid to Ukraine worth approximately US$25.5 million

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Canada announces new aid to Ukraine worth approximately US$25.5 million

Canada is providing Ukraine with military aid worth over 35 million Canadian dollars (approximately US$25.5 million). Source: Canada's Defence Ministry press service, as reported by European Pravda Details: Canadian Defence Minister David J. McGuinty took part in the 28th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein Format). At the meeting, McGuinty announced that Canada is providing Ukraine with military aid worth 35 million Canadian dollars. He said that 30 million Canadian dollars (US$21.9 million) will be spent on Coyote and Bison armoured personnel carriers, as well as new equipment and ammunition from Canadian companies. This is in addition to the previous transfer of 64 Coyote armoured vehicles, which arrived in Ukraine in December 2024. Another 5 million Canadian dollars (US$3.6 million) will go towards electronic warfare kits from the Canadian defence industry. Background: At the 28th Ramstein meeting, held at NATO headquarters, Ukraine and its partner countries agreed to create a defence production mechanism. The US secretary of defence ignored the Ramstein meeting for the first time. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!

Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin, Jolted by Trump-Musk Clash, Rebounds Before Jobs Data
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin, Jolted by Trump-Musk Clash, Rebounds Before Jobs Data

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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin, Jolted by Trump-Musk Clash, Rebounds Before Jobs Data

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market recovered from overnight lows, with monero (XMR), XRP and SUI leading the bounce ahead of the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring in May. "In the short term, weak data may support BTC to continue the rebound. The market is concerned about Friday's non-farm payrolls report, if it again shows that the labor market cooling, will strengthen the year rate cut expectations," analysts at Bitunix said in an email. Other analysts expressed concerns about the public spat between President Donald Trump and his one-time ally and billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk over tax reforms and their impact on fiscal deficit. "A public clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump shook investor confidence, highlighting fractures within political and business leadership," said Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN. "Traditional markets held relatively steady (−0.5%), but crypto saw a sharp reaction, with $830M in liquidations as leveraged traders got wiped out." Fournier suggested maintaining a cautious, low-exposure stance, expecting sideways or further downside action over the weekend. "Any near-term rebound will need a fundamental catalyst to be sustained," he noted. More buoyantly, USDC issuer Circle's shares surged 168% on their first day of NYSE trading to close at $83.23 from the IPO price of $31, lifting the market cap to $18.5 billion. The stock saw a trading volume of over 47.8 million shares, according to the exchange. The debut, however, revived memories of Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which marked an interim bitcoin market top. The number of large open interest holders of CME bitcoin futures reached an all-time high of 217 as of the end of May, signaling increased institutional participation. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said that the company is in the 'study phase' of potentially using stablecoins as a payment method. In traditional markets, the U.S. Treasury called on the Bank of Japan to hike rates to stall the weakness in the yen, a currency that's seen as a haven from risk. Stay alert! Crypto June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project's history. Phase 2 is scheduled for activation on July 6. June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on "DeFi and the American Spirit" June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol. June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged. June 16: Brazil's B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil's securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices. Macro June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data. Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9% Employment Change Est. -15K vs. Prev. 7.4K June 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 177K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. 10K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -1K vs. Prev. -1K June 8, 9:30 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases May consumer and producer price inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.1% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.1% PPI YoY Prev. -2.7% Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future. Governance votes & calls Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to fund the integration of Uniswap V4 and Unichain support in Oku. The goal is to expand V4 adoption, support hook developers, and improve tools for liquidity providers and traders. Voting ends June 6. ApeCoin DAO is discussing scrapping the decentralized autonomous organization and launching ApeCo to 'supercharge the APE ecosystem.' Optimism DAO is voting to approve eligibility criteria for the Milestones and Metrics (M&M) Council in Seasons 8 and 9, introducing a model where members are selected 'based on competencies rather than elections.' Voting ends June 11. June 6, 12 p.m.: Livepeer to host an Open Ecosystem Call on Discord. June 10, 10 a.m.: to host an analyst call followed by a Q&A session. June 11, 7 a.m.: Cronos Labs lead Mirko Zhao to participate in a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session. Unlocks June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $52.25 million. June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.39 million. June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $16.34 million. June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.31 million. June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $31.01 million. June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $40.78 million. June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.53 million. Token Launches June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon's sunsetting process ends June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN). The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Day 5 of 6: SXSW London Day 3 of 3 Non Fungible Conference (Lisbon) Day 2 of 2: 2025 Crypto Valley Conference (Zug, Switzerland) June 14: Incrypted Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) June 19-21: BTC Prague 2025 June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute's Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington) June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week By Shaurya Malwa Yuga Labs CEO Greg Solano proposed dissolving the ApeCoin DAO and transferring its assets to a new entity to be called ApeCo. Solano criticized the DAO for inefficiency, saying the proposal aims to streamline operations to focus on high-impact projects. A formal vote is required to approve the transition, which would end the current NFT-focused governance structure. Elsewere, Fartcoin jumped 12% as Coinbase added the token to its its listing roadmap, signaling potential future trading on the crypto exchange. Trading volume hitting a record $400 million, pushing FARTCOIN into the top-100 by market capitalization and one of the few tokens in the green in an otherwise red market. Fartcoin, known for its humorous origins and cult following, allows users to earn tokens by submitting themed memes or jokes. Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin have flipped to marginally negative, indicating a bias for shorts. Ether funding rates remain mildly positive. HYPE, AAVE, BCH, SOL and DOGE have seen an increase in open interest. On Deribit, near-term uncertainty is reflected in skew, with puts costlier than calls through the 13th June expiry. Subsequent expiries show demand for calls. Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm featured long positions in June puts and demand for strangles, or volatility bullish strategies. BTC is up 3.14% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $103,738.42 (24hrs: -0.79%) ETH is unchanged at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.02%) CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 3,086.55 (24hrs: +0.81%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 3.06% BTC funding rate is at -0.0044% (-4.8279% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.22% at 98.96 Gold futures are up 0.12% at $3,379.10 Silver futures are up 1.21% at $36.24 Nikkei 225 closed up 0.5% at 37,741.61 Hang Seng closed down 0.48% at 23,792.54 FTSE is up 0.13% at 8,822.93 Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,409.99 DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.25% at 42,319.74 S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 5,939.30 Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.83% at 19,298.45 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.05% at 26,342.29 S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.58% at 2,575.32 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.4% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% at 5,973.50 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.49% at 21,687.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.37% at 42,526.00 BTC Dominance: 64.64 (0.13%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02385 (0.25%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 883 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $51.89 Total Fees: 4.87 BTC / $505,169 CME Futures Open Interest: 145,460 BTC BTC priced in gold: 30.6 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 8.68% XRP's BTC-denominated price is falling and the descent has taken the shape of a falling wedge pattern, characterized by two converging trendlines connecting highs and low. The convergence indicates that the selling pressure is slowly weakening. A breakout from the wedge would confirm a bull reversal higher and renewed XRP outperformance relative to bitcoin. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $368.79 (-2.46%), +1.67% at $374.94 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $244.2 (-4.61%), +2.04% at $249.19 Circle (CRCL): closed at $83.23 (+168.48%), +15.22% at $95.11 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.12 (-4.98%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.88 (-5.04%), +1.75% at $15.14 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.99 (-5.37%), +2.45% at $9.21 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.93 (-5.02%), unchanged in pre-market CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.02 (-5.35%), +2.0% at $9.20 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.2 (-5.16%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.64 (-8.72%), +2.02% at $33.30 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.13 (-2.97%), unchanged in pre-market Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flow: -$278.4 million Cumulative net flows: $44.27 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: $11.3 million Cumulative net flows: $3.32 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.76 million Source: Farside Investors Open interest in ETH futures listed on the CME has pulled back to 1.04 millon ETH from 1.17 millon on May 27. The decline indicates that the institutional momentum behind ether has weakened. The Mounting Pressure on Bond Markets (Financial Times): Amanda Stitt of T. Rowe Price says weakening investor demand is driving up long-term borrowing costs, forcing governments to confront debt sustainability risks and rethink future public spending. Ether Trader Bets Millions on ETH Blasting Above $3.4K by June-End (CoinDesk): The trader paid a premium of over $2 million to purchase a total of 61,000 contracts of June-end expiry ether call options at strikes $3,200 and $3,400, said Deribit. Bitopro Confirms $11M Hack, Taiwan Crypto Exchange Says It Has Replenished Lost Funds (CoinDesk): The exchange said it swiftly restored stolen funds, secured assets in new wallets and will disclose updated hot wallet addresses while a third-party probe examines the breach. Yuga Labs Proposes Scrapping ApeCoin DAO, Launching ApeCo (CoinDesk): CEO Greg Solano called for a governance overhaul, citing inefficiencies and pushing to replace the DAO with a more agile entity focused on impactful development. India's Central Bank Beats Market Expectations to Deliver Outsized Rate Cut of 50 Points (CNBC): Governor Sanjay Malhotra cited easing inflation and subdued growth as the bank delivered its steepest rate cut in nearly three years and shifted to a neutral stance. Golden Dome Missile Shield Project Turns Space Into Arena of Armed Confrontation — Ryabkov (TASS): Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned that U.S. militarization of space risks global instability and urged negotiations on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space treaty (PAROS). Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Beef prices surge as barbecue season approaches
Beef prices surge as barbecue season approaches

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Beef prices surge as barbecue season approaches

Canadians looking to grill some burgers and steaks as the summer barbecue season heats up may find themselves paying much more for beef, prompting one food expert to call for an investigation. Prices for striploin steak are 34.2 per cent higher since January, while top sirloin is up 33.7 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. Pork ribs and chicken breasts are each up 5.9 per cent during the same period. 'For many Canadian families, a summer steak on the grill is starting to feel more like a splurge than a staple,' Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, said in a recent report. 'Consumers will continue to enjoy beef, but with moderation and on occasions that justify the cost.' He pointed to several factors behind the jump in beef prices, including transportation costs, the carbon tax, the number of licensed beef processors and labour costs. Canadian inventory is also an issue since it has fallen to 3.38 million head, the lowest level since 1989. 'Many cattle producers are exiting the industry while prices are favourable, opting to reinvest in less volatile sectors or shift entirely to crop production,' Charlebois said. 'In short, the Canadian beef industry is retreating and becoming increasingly risk-averse.' Canadians are already taking notice of the price hikes in the past few years. Per capita beef consumption fell 7.1 per cent in 2023 and another 2.1 per cent in 2024, according to IBISWorld data. 'This is no longer just a matter of shifting dietary preferences; it's a structural shift in consumer behaviour,' Charlebois said. 'Beef is increasingly seen as a luxury item, with ground beef becoming the primary choice for budget-conscious households still committed to red meat.' He also wonders if producers in Canada are taking advantage of the situation. In the United States, former president Joe Biden tried to crack down on anticompetitive practices in the food industry, specifically price fixing in the meat sector. In February, Brazilian meatpacking company JBS SA agreed to pay US$83.5 to settle claims that it worked with other companies to artificially inflate prices. Under the settlement, JBS must also work with U.S. investigators looking into similar claims at Tyson Foods Inc., Cargill Inc. and National Beef Packing Co. LLC. JBS has called the claims against it 'frivolous and without merit,' but is settling because it is in the company's best interest. 'The Canadian Competition Bureau, by contrast, has remained largely silent on similar concerns,' Charlebois said. 'Perhaps it's time for that to change.' Prices on thousands of grocery items to rise despite tariff break, says Loblaw Canada has lost its global agricultural trading edge, RBC report says The Competition Bureau said investigations are confidential, so it can not reveal information on current investigations. 'The bureau must conduct a thorough and complete examination of the facts regarding any issue before reaching any conclusion as to whether the Competition Act has been contravened,' a spokesperson for the agency said in a statement. 'If we find evidence of activities that could raise concerns under the law, we will take action.' • Email: bcousins@ Sign in to access your portfolio

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