Latest news with #BradSetser
CNBC
12-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Brad Setser: Chinese Yuan to remain stable vs. U.S. dollar, but on a weaker level as USD has weakened
CFR's Brad Setser sees the Taiwan dollar and Korean won to strengthen, but warns of 'no possibility of a US-Korea deal soon'.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Economist Brad Setser Sounds Alarm On China's Hidden Trade Surplus, Suggests Billions In Capital Outflows Are Being Masked
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Economist Brad Setser is raising concerns regarding the quiet shift in how China reports its trade surpluses, a change he says is masking billions of dollars in unreported income and capital outflows. What Happened: On the Keeping It Simple webinar series on Tuesday, Setser, a former staff economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, said China's changes to how it tracks and reports trade data have 'reduced its current account surplus by about half relative to what I think it should be.' According to Setser, China's manufacturing surplus rose by about 1% of global GDP, or $1 trillion, so with this, half of it being suppressed suggests a gap of $500 billion in hidden trade surplus. Trending: In terms of getting money back, . For years, analysts could closely estimate China's current account using its customs-reported goods surplus and services trade balance. But during the pandemic, this correlation 'disappeared,' Setser says, adding that this discrepancy stems from a change in its reporting methodology. Instead of using transparent customs data, China now calculates its current account using an internal payments dataset that, according to Setser, 'is internal, it's not transparent and it's not disclosed.' Setser believes that the motivation behind this change may have been to avoid overseas scrutiny of China's growing trade surpluses. On the other hand, this 'fudge factor,' as he refers to it, may have been a way to conceal the nation's capital flight. 'One effect of reducing the current account surplus is you reduce estimates of the financial outflow and thereby the hot money that some people might say is embarrassingly leaving Xi's China,' he says. 7-9% target yield with monthly dividends would you invest in it Why It Matters: China's economic model has come under heavy criticism, especially recently, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing the country of creating persistent trade imbalances, which 'contribute to global dependence on U.S. demand to Spur growth.' Other eminent macro experts and economists, too, have urged the Chinese government to reform its economic model, including Nouriel Roubini, who stated last month that it wasn't just the U.S. that is demanding change, but 'the rest of the world expects it too.'Read Next: Maximize saving for your retirement and cut down on taxes: Schedule your free call with a financial advisor to start your financial journey – no cost, no obligation. Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Last Chance to get 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.30/share! Photo courtesy: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Economist Brad Setser Sounds Alarm On China's Hidden Trade Surplus, Suggests Billions In Capital Outflows Are Being Masked originally appeared on
Wall Street Journal
08-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
‘Not Much Changes' With U.K. Trade Deal, Says Economist Brad Setser
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer billed Thursday's trade deal with the U.S. as "truly historic." But the actual impacts may prove minimal, says Brad Setser, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations. "First, this is a very small deal. Most of the new U.S. tariffs remain. Most of the restrictions on U.S. exports to the U.K. (which are modest) remain. Not much changes," Setser said in a post on X. Click below to read Setser's full reaction to the deal.
Bloomberg
06-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Odd Lots: Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar
There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy.
Bloomberg
06-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy.
