
Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts
Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify
There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Spotify (SPOT) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts
In the latest market close, Spotify (SPOT) reached $699.11, with a -1.85% movement compared to the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.09%. The music-streaming service operator's stock has climbed by 9.87% in the past month, falling short of the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 11.17% and outpacing the S&P 500's gain of 7.21%. Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Spotify in its upcoming earnings disclosure. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $2.27, marking a 58.74% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $4.79 billion, indicating a 16.93% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year. SPOT's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $9.72 per share and revenue of $19.94 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +63.36% and +17.6%, respectively. It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Spotify. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook. Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system. The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.63% downward. Spotify is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Spotify has a Forward P/E ratio of 73.27 right now. This indicates a premium in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 29.83. We can additionally observe that SPOT currently boasts a PEG ratio of 1.78. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Internet - Software industry stood at 2.39 at the close of the market yesterday. The Internet - Software industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 57, which puts it in the top 24% of all 250+ industries. The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. To follow SPOT in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Spotify Technology (SPOT) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research


CNBC
10 hours ago
- CNBC
Many countries still in 'wait and see' mode when it comes to U.S. trade deals: Michael Froman
Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade representative and head of the Council on Foreign Relations, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what to expect from today's trade talks between the U.S. and China.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Yahoo
Musk's feud with Trump reveals one ugly truth about Tesla stock
You can catch Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. The very public spat that has erupted between Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and president Donald Trump has sent shares of the EV maker on a wild, wild ride. Shares are off by 15% over the last five sessions as investors fear Trump will take aim at Musk's various lines of business. Musk also being out of Trump's inner circle also runs counter to the bull thesis that circled Tesla's stock post election. But the dustup between the two powerbrokers brings to light a major problem for Tesla's stock as Musk tries to jumpstart a sagging EV business. There is a big disconnect between Tesla's valuation and what's happening underneath the surface. For example, Tesla's stock is up 12% since October 2022 – yet, consensus EPS estimates for 2025, 2026 and 2027 have plunged 77%, 70% and 71% since then according to new research from JP Morgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman. Further, the stock is valued at a significant premium to the broader market despite Trump likely doing away with EV tax credits soon. The tax credit has been a driver of Tesla's sales and profits. EV subsidies represent about 52% of Tesla's current profits, Brinkman estimates. For full episodes of Opening Bid, listen on your favorite podcast platform or watch on our website. Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid is produced by Langston Sessoms All right. Welcome to a new episode of The Opening Bid Podcast. I'm Yahoo! Finance executive editor, Brian Sozzi. And this is our stock of the day. Let's get a minute on that clock. Uh, of course, we're going to start with the Elon Musk feud with President Trump, continuing to unfold, has quieted down a little bit, but nonetheless, it's something to be following because it has impacted Tesla stock. Uh, shares are down by 15% over the last five sessions. Uh, of course, when the president, uh, won the presidency, there was this thought that Elon would help, uh, you know, his closeness or proximity to the president would help get auto taxis approved, and everybody would be using robots. Now that thesis has unwound, as Musk is clearly not in the Trump inner circle. But this is highlighted, uh, this feud has highlighted really two problems with Tesla stock. First, uh, the valuation of the stock versus reality. Uh, have to give a shout out to Ryan Brinkman at JP Morgan. Uh, he notes that, uh, Tesla stock is up 12% since October 22. Yet, consensus EPS estimates, I mean, these are shocking to clients, for 2025, next year and 2027 have plunged by 77%, 70%, and 71%, respectively. These are huge declines at a time where Tesla stock is still high. And the problem number two, as I mentioned, is in fact the valuation. Tesla stock valued about 140 times forward estimated earnings. Uh, the S&P 500 is about 22 times. And if President Trump rolls back those EV tax credits, like, uh, it is expected because of his big beautiful bill, um, Tesla could lose a lot of profits. Brinkman estimates EV subsidies represent about 52% of Tesla's core profits, uh, and theoretically, all those profits would go up in smoke. That's our stock of the day on The Opening Bid Podcast.