Hurricane Erin Spaghetti Models Show Potential Paths As Warning Issued
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Erin, the first hurricane to develop over the Atlantic this year, is moving toward the Caribbean islands and is expected to create dangerous conditions in much of the East Coast next week, according to forecasters.
After quickly strengthening to a Category 5 storm on Saturday, Erin was downgraded to Category 3 early on Sunday as its wind speed slowed down a little, offering some relief to those on its path.
Why It Matters
The East Coast is on high alert as this year's Atlantic hurricane season has reached a time when more activity is expected. The season runs from June 1 to November 30, but the busiest times are expected between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Every year, tropical storms and hurricanes cause billions of dollars in damage across the U.S., shaking up the life of residents affected. This year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects an above-average season with about 13 to 19 named storms, including three to five major hurricanes. So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, and one storm that turned into a hurricane.
What To Know
Spaghetti models are a type of weather forecasting map that experts use to predict where the center of a storm will be five, seven or 14 days in the future. Each long strand in the model shows a potential path for the storm; the closer these strands are, the more confident experts feel that is the likely trajectory the storm will follow.
A spaghetti model created by Tropical Tidbits shows Erin's projected trajectory as of August 17.
A spaghetti model created by Tropical Tidbits shows Erin's projected trajectory as of August 17.
Tropical Tidbits
According to forecasters, Erin is moving toward the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This is not a truth set in stone: forecasters' predictions are based on the most likely path of the storm, but things could still change as the storm moves on.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center also say that the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should remain on high alert. Currently, tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten and the Turks and Caicos.
Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, looks at a screen showing paths that Tropical Storm Erin could take at the National Hurricane Center in Miami on August 13, 2025.
Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, looks at a screen showing paths that Tropical Storm Erin could take at the National Hurricane Center in Miami on August 13, 2025.While Erin won't make a direct hit on the U.S., the hurricane is expected to create dangerous surf and rip currents in parts of the East Coast, including Florida. It could also affect the beaches of the Bahamas and Atlantic Canada.
Florida beaches can expect dangerous conditions next week, including large ocean wells, rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Jacksonville.
🌀Hurricane Erin Update 🌀
➡️Though the forecast track has nudged slightly westward, the system is still expected to turn north to northeast away from the area Sunday and next week.
➡️Rough surf and high rip current risk still expected next week at area beaches pic.twitter.com/rFYERY1WQC — NWS Jacksonville (@NWSJacksonville) August 17, 2025
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center wrote on X: "Erin is expected to grow in size. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along U.S. east coast beaches beginning Monday and lasting most of next week."
Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci wrote on X: "Erin is a maelstrom of meteorological mayhem as it puts on a pageant of power and elegance. It has rapidly intensified at three times the rate needed to qualify."
In case you're wondering what EXTREME rapid intensification looks like (55 mph/13 hours), behold.
Erin is a maelstrom of meteorological mayhem as it puts on a pageant of power and elegance.
It has rapidly intensified at three time the rate needed to qualify. pic.twitter.com/oOtyge5u5U — Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 16, 2025
Hurricane expert Michael Lowry wrote on X: "Erin is only the 5th Category 5 hurricane on record to form this early in the hurricane season and the only Category 5 observed outside the Gulf or Caribbean this early in the year."
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY: "We still expect this to eventually make a more northward turn and stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. So that certainly is good news when dealing with a storm this powerful."
The NWS Miami wrote on social media: "Regardless of pre season forecasts or the final storm tally, it only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community. Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint."
What Happens Next
Florida is possibly the single most vulnerable state in the country to hurricanes, with the most devastating storms tending to hit after the season's September peak.
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NBC News
27 minutes ago
- NBC News
Climate change is increasing the risk of rapidly intensifying storms. Hurricane Erin is the latest example.
Hurricane Erin strengthened back into a Category 4 behemoth over the weekend, the latest shift in what has been a remarkably fast-changing storm. The hurricane's behavior in recent days makes it one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and yet another indication that climate change is increasing the risk of rapidly intensifying storms. Erin became the first hurricane of this year's Atlantic season on Friday and exploded in strength from a Category 1 into a Category 5 storm in a little over 24 hours. Even after it weakened and re-strengthened into a Category 4 storm, Erin's jaw-dropping transformation ranks it among the five fastest storms to grow from Category 1 to Category 5. The hurricane is expected to grow larger and strengthen even more on Monday as it passes east of the Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory. Heavy rainfall is forecasted for parts of Hispaniola on Monday, and for Turks and Caicos and parts of the southeast and Central Bahamas through Tuesday. But it's the storm's 'rapid intensification' that has experts taking note. Rapid intensification describes an increase in sustained wind speeds of at least 35 mph over a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin's maximum sustained wind speed increased around 75 mph in 24 hours, from Friday morning into Saturday. Climate change is increasing the risk of rapidly intensifying storms, primarily due to warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures and high levels of moisture in the atmosphere — key ingredients needed for storms to gather strength. Erin's journey near the Bahamas on Monday will take it over warm waters hovering in the mid-80 degree Fahrenheit range, which could help it intensify further. A warmer atmosphere as a result of global warming also holds more moisture, which enables storms to gather strength and dump more rainfall over land. A 2023 study published in the journal Scientific Reports found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean were around 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990. Indeed, rapid intensification has been well documented in recent years. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian's peak winds increased from 150 mph to 185 mph in nine hours. Hurricane Ian in 2022 underwent two rounds of rapid intensification before it made landfall in Florida. Last year, Hurricane Milton's maximum sustained wind speed increased by an astonishing 90 mph in roughly 25 hours. Other recent examples of rapid intensification include Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021 and Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Still, the process of rapid intensification remains difficult to forecast. Scientists know that warm sea surface temperatures, moist air and favorable atmospheric conditions are necessary pieces of the puzzle, but understanding how it will happen for specific storms — and when — will require more research. In the coming days, the National Hurricane Center said Erin will move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. Though the storm is not expected to make a direct hit with land, the hurricane will generate swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents for the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada.
Time Magazine
an hour ago
- Time Magazine
How Hurricane Erin Will Impact the U.S.
Hurricane Erin is ripping through the Atlantic Ocean, passing just east of the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas on Aug. 18 and 19, bringing coastal flooding to the islands. While the category 4 storm is not expected to make landfall on the U.S. east coast, it will have an impact nonetheless. Dangerous high surf and rip currents are expected from Florida to New England throughout the week. 'It looks like it's going to stay offshore through its entire lifetime, but because it's so large in size, it is going to be bringing impacts,' says Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert. The hurricane saw an 'exceptionally rare' rapid intensification—growing from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in 24 hours on Saturday. (The storm has since been downgraded to a category 4.) Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes—and the number of extreme rapid intensification events have increased significantly in the past three decades. As of Monday morning, evacuation orders are in place for the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, where DaSilva says they might see waves of up to 15 feet. 'That's just waves coming into the coast,' he says. 'There's going to be major beach erosion and major coastal flooding issues on the Outer Banks in the middle of the week.' And though other regions might not face evacuations, the storm will create unsafe conditions at beaches across the East Coast as many beachgoers might be looking to squeeze in one last trip before school starts. 'Anybody on the East Coast from Miami all the way up to Maine needs to be aware that this week, the rip current risk is going to be extremely high and very dangerous,' says DaSilva. 'So even if you're in Long Island or Massachusetts or Maine—far away from the storm—when you're at the beaches it's going to be very dangerous.' Keep an eye out for no swimming signs at the beach, and make sure to listen to any lifeguard instructions. Rip currents are expected to last into next week—at least until Saturday. 'It's going to be a very dangerous week for beach weather,' says DaSilva. 'We don't want people to venture out there thinking it doesn't look that bad and get hurt because rip currents are nothing to mess with.'
Boston Globe
2 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Erin to bring high surf, dangerous rip currents to coastal New England. Up to 10-foot waves forecast.
Advertisement If you're headed to the beach, check the Last year, 66 people died in rip currents across the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A rip current is a powerful, narrow channel of water flowing away from the beach and often extending through the breaker zone where waves form. If you are caught in a rip current, don't fight it. Rather, swim out with the current, then parallel to the shoreline before turning back toward the shore. These maps break down the details: Advertisement Forecast wave heights may reach 10 feet along the New England coast by Thursday. Boston Globe Hurricane Erin is forecast to veer far out to sea in the coming days, but will cause dangerous rip current along the East Coast. Boston Globe Tropical storm-force winds may arrive near the islands later this week, but wave heights will soar. Boston Globe The main thing to do if caught in a rip current is not to fight against it, but to swim out of the current and then to shore. How to navigate a rip current should you find yourself in one. Boston Globe Chris Boyle, supervisor of Horseneck Beach, offers these tips for beachgoers: Rip currents are a summer threat you might overlook. Did you know there were 65 reported fatalities in the surf zone last year related to rip currents? Find the rip current forecast before you head to the beach: Thank you to — NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) Water temperatures are well into the 80s near Hurricane Erin, helping it strengthen. Boston Globe Pay attention to posted flags at your local beach to gauge the rip current risk. NOAA for our that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning. Ken Mahan can be reached at
