Harvard economist admits he was wrong about Bitcoin

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Harvard economist admits he was wrong about Bitcoin originally appeared on TheStreet.
Kenneth Rogoff, an American economist and chess grandmaster, predicted that Bitcoin was far more likely to fall to $100 in 2018.
Speaking to CNBC Rogoff predicted that an increase in government regulation would cause the price to fall, adding that a decline to $100 was 'a lot more likely' than a rise to $100,000.
He also made bold claims that without money laundering and tax evasion, the practical applications of Bitcoin would be almost negligible. Rogoff who previously served at the International Monetary Fund, is now the Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics at Harvard University.
Seven years later, Bitcoin has crossed that threshold past the six-figure milestone, prompting Rogoff to explain why he believes his forecast failed.
Harvard economist admits his Bitcoin prediction was wrong
Rogoff expressed regret that he had underestimated the demand for Bitcoin and the reluctance of regulators to intervene, but in a sarcastic tone.
'I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities?' he wrote, adding that he did not anticipate Bitcoin becoming the 'transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy.'
While previously he stated that the Government could hinder the asset's adoption, Bitcoin has only flourished rather than floundered. Institutional investors, corporations, and governments now have major stakes in the asset.
As of August 20, the US government holds around $22.48 billion in Bitcoin, as per records. Additionally, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), launched in July 2024 to provide indirect exposure to the asset, have also fueled additional demand for Bitcoin.
Over the course of 273 trading days between July 2024 and August 20, with an average of approximately $4.75 billion in transactions per day, the total trading volume comes to almost $1.35 trillion.
However, Rogoff continues to argue that any demand Bitcoin has seen in the recent years, is propped up by illicit activity and regulatory blind spots rather than mainstream utility. He says:
'I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest.'
Harvard economist fashes backlash from crypto community
Bitcoin proponents harshly criticized his explanation. In a post on X, investor and analyst Anthony Pompliano rejected Rogoff's analysis. 'Fiat economist still doesn't understand bitcoin. Blames everyone but himself for missing it' wrote Pompliano.
Moreover, in a weird twist of fate, the ivy league university, Harvard, has itself invested over $116 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), making it the 29th largest holder of IBIT.
At press time, Bitcoin stands at $112,957.69, down nearly 2% over the last day. However, the current price is still up over 85% in a year's time.
Harvard economist admits he was wrong about Bitcoin first appeared on TheStreet on Aug 20, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 20, 2025, where it first appeared.