Auto industry poised for subdued growth
Analysts expected a mixed outlook, shaped by softening consumer sentiment, rising competition, and policy uncertainty, but supported in part by new model launches and ongoing infrastructure development.
BIMB Research revised its 2025 TIV forecast downwards to 790,000 units, a 2.5% cut from its earlier estimate of 810,000 units.
It noted that the adjustment was prompted by weaker-than-expected momentum in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), attributed to soft consumer sentiment and lingering uncertainty over the timing of RON95 subsidy rationalisation.
However, BIMB Research pointed to a potential sequential recovery in the second half of the year, underpinned by promotional activities, longer working days, and stable loan approval rates.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research) projected a sharper decline, expecting TIV to fall to 750,000 units in 2025, down 8.2% year-on-year, compared to the Malaysian Automotive Association's (MAA) forecast of 780,000 units.
HLIB Research remarked that current order backlogs have further dwindled in 2Q25 and this is expected to continue softening in subsequent quarters as consumer sentiment weakens in tandem with a slower economic outlook as well as petrol subsidy rationalisation in the second half of 2025 (2H25).
The sector's performance in 1H25 reflected these trends.
According to MAA, TIV in May 2025 rose 12.4% month-on-month to 68,000 units, driven by normalised working days after the April festive holidays.
However, on a year-on-year basis, sales fell 3.2%, contributing to a 5% decline in year-to-date volume to 316,700 units.
This was largely attributed to easing consumer sentiment following the record 816,700 units achieved in 2024.
BIMB Research said it saw structural support for the sector from 'new model launches, rising electric vehicle (EV) popularity, and infrastructure buildout'.
Key launches expected in the second half included Perodua's eMO battery electric vehicle, Proton's facelifted X50 and new Saga, and Honda's refreshed Civic.
Chinese brands were also stepping up, with Chery's iCAUR electric sports utility vehicles set for an Asean debut in the third quarter and TQ Wuling planning a mass-market electric vehicle (EV) below RM100,000 by year-end.
BIMB Research noted: 'This strong pipeline across ICE and EV segments is expected to drive demand and refresh the competitive landscape.'
Both BIMB Research and HLIB Research maintained a 'neutral' stance on the sector.
BIMB Research cautioned that the sector's recovery is expected to be uneven due to elevated borrowing costs, fragile supply chains, and pricing pressure from Chinese manufacturers.
Similarly, HLIB Research said earnings were likely to fall in 2025 on the back of lower sales volume and higher operating costs (aggressive sales campaigns), but partially cushioned by the strengthening of the ringgit.
On the EV front, BIMB Research highlighted that 'EV adoption will continue to expand structurally, particularly as the current completely built units import tax exemption is set to expire at the end of 2025'.
It forecasts EV market share could reach up to 4% by year-end, driven by broader model offerings and stronger national brand participation.
Still, achieving the government's 10,000 public charger target by end-2025 remained challenging, with monthly installations needing to average 730 units.
The looming revision of the open market value-based excise duty for completely knocked down vehicles in January 2026 could spur frontloaded purchases in late 2025. BIMB Research noted that any delay or adjustment in the policy could 'further sustain demand momentum in 2H25'.
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