These states could redistrict before the 2026 midterms
Republicans hold a 219-212 House majority, with four vacancies, and any change to the congressional map could determine which party controls the 119th Congress. Right now, the math favors Republicans, as red states have more opportunities to shift district lines to their advantage before the midterms.
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Here's a look at some of the potential targets and the steps involved to change political boundaries in these states.
Texas Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, surrounded by fellow Republicans as he faced off with Democrats during debate over a redrawn US congressional map in Texas, during a special session on Wednesday.
Eric Gay/Associated Press
Texas
The redistricting battle began with Texas, where Trump originally pressed Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to draw a new congressional boundaries with more safely red seats. The state legislature has control over drawing district boundaries, so the governor called a special session in early August to create and vote on a new map. The resulting proposed map would give Republicans five potential pickups in the House.
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A majority of the state's Democratic lawmakers broke quorum by leaving the state, delaying a vote on the new map. Republicans subsequently kicked off a second special session after the first session ended Aug. 15, and most Democrats who had fled the state returned to Texas on Monday. Republicans later introduced two additional map tweaks, and the legislature
Republicans control 25 of Texas's 38 House seats. The new map is more partisan — each of these new districts recorded double-digit vote margins in the 2024 presidential election, so none will be considered especially competitive. Two Democratic House members from Texas — Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th — currently represent districts that split the ticket and favored Trump in 2024. Both districts have been redrawn to shift further to the right.
California
California was the second state to jump into the redistricting battle. In response to the potential Republican pickups in Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and state Democrats have proposed a new map that would potentially turn five House seats blue, evening the score with the actions in Texas.
But implementing any new maps off-schedule in California
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California Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher spoke in opposition to Democrats' plan to advance a partisan effort to redraw the state's congressional map at a press conference on Monday.
Tran Nguyen/Associated Press
The current map in California is deeply blue, with Democrats holding all but nine of the state's 52 House seats. But many of the districts are considered competitive. In 2024, the presidential vote margin in 15 congressional districts was 10 points or less. The proposed map introduced by Democrats shifted most of the state's competitive districts toward the left.
Indiana
Vice President JD Vance visited GOP-controlled Indiana this month to discuss redrawing its congressional map, which could net Republicans one more seat.
State law limits congressional map drawing to the first legislative session after the decennial census; however, Republicans have a supermajority in the state legislature and could easily change the law. GOP state lawmakers have seemed hesitant to shake up the state's political boundaries, but increased pressure from the White House could shift their stance.
The most vulnerable seat is likely in the 1st District, which includes the edges of suburban Chicago. Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D) won reelection there by eight points in 2024, but the district favored Democrat Kamala Harris by less than half a percentage point in the 2024 race.
Ohio
Redistricting is already on the table this year in Ohio, as the state is required to create a new congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Congressional maps in Ohio must be approved by a supermajority in the legislature, but neither party has been able to agree on a new map since the state Supreme Court struck down the map drawn after the 2020 Census. In 2022, the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted a map that could be used only until 2026.
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The timing in Ohio couldn't be better for Republicans pushing to pick up more House seats ahead of 2026. Three of the state's Democratic-controlled districts had single-digit vote margins in the 2024 presidential election. Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Strong Sykes are probably the most vulnerable Democrats in any new maps, as both won by narrow margins in 2024.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (left) joined Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu, along with other members of the Texas House, while they spoke about Texas Republican's plans to redraw the House map, on August 3.
Mark Black/Associated Press
Illinois
Illinois jumped into the redistricting story when Gov. JB Pritzker (D) invited Texas House Democrats to stay in suburban Chicago after they left their state to stall the Republicans redistricting efforts.
Pritzker has been vocal about the redistricting battle nationally, and Illinois state lawmakers have full control of the map-drawing process. But the impact of any map changes could be limited here — Democrats hold 14 out of the state's 17 House seats, and the map is already carved largely in Democrats' favor.
Missouri
Republicans are considering Missouri a possible target for redistricting ahead of 2026. The legislature could introduce new maps in September during its annual veto session.
State Republicans may try to squeeze an additional red seat by carving up the 5th District, currently held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II (D). This solid blue district, which includes Kansas City, heavily favored Harris in 2024.
Carving up Kansas City for a new GOP seat would leave only one solid blue district in Missouri — the 1st District around St. Louis. That is a majority-minority district and protected by the Voting Rights Act.
Florida
Florida's congressional map has shifted in favor of Republicans in recent years. The GOP picked up four additional seats after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pushed state lawmakers to redraw the map in 2022.
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Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez (R) told state lawmakers he is creating a 'select committee' on congressional redistricting, and a few more districts could shift toward the GOP. But the state constitution has a 'Fair Districts' amendment that says districts cannot be drawn to favor any one political party, and any changes to the map could be challenged in court. Five congressional districts had 2024 presidential vote margins within 10 points, and all of those seats are held by Democrats.
Maeve Reston, Patrick Marley, Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez contributed to this report. Data analysis by Lenny Bronner. Presidential results for the proposed new districts are from a Washington Post analysis of 2024 precinct election results and data from Redistricting Partners.
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Indianapolis Star
13 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
Trump isn't Indiana lawmakers' boss. They should tell him so on redistricting.
When I was hired to run the state's mental health and addiction work, my daughter was 4 years old, and boy was she confused. 'Are you the governor?' she asked. 'No, I'm not the governor, but I work for him.' That made sense for a moment. But then came the follow-up: 'Doesn't everyone in Indiana work for the Governor?' No, I explained, the governor actually works for all of us. 'Oh, okay,' she said. Then she thought a little longer and asked about the president. 'Does the governor work for the president?' 'No,' I said. 'The governor serves the people of Indiana. And this particular president, well, he sort of works for himself.' Eventually she got it, though during my time at the state she would still complain about people littering and ask why I didn't do something about it. But, in general, she understood: I worked for Gov. Eric Holcomb, and he worked for the people of Indiana. We often collaborated with the federal government, but they were not our bosses. Why do I bring up this story, besides the fact that it's adorable (which, honestly, might be reason enough)? Because I'd like to remind our Republican state legislators that Donald Trump is not, in fact, their boss. The backdrop for this, of course, is the ongoing pressure campaign from the Trump administration on red states to redraw districts mid-decade in a bid to secure a GOP House majority in 2026. Governor Braun and Indiana's legislative leaders clearly don't want to participate, but they haven't ruled it out. Indiana is already heavily gerrymandered. Republicans hold 78% (7 of 9) U.S. House seats in a state where they usually get about 60% of the vote. National attention is focused on flipping Rep. Frank Mrvan's seat in Northwest Indiana, and maybe even Rep. André Carson's in Indianapolis, despite both incumbents winning reelection by healthy margins in 2022 and 2024. Of course, gerrymandering happens in red, blue, and purple states alike. It's a kind of tolerated cheating, part of the 'unwritten rules' of politics. But like in baseball, the system's balance depends on everyone knowing which lines not to cross. What makes this redistricting push especially dangerous is that it represents the final form of the worst political trend of the last 10-15 years: the nationalization of state and local politics. The gravitational pull of Washington has hollowed out the traditional role of governors and legislatures as problem-solvers for their own states. Instead, every fight gets reframed as a proxy war in the national culture struggle. The 2024 Indiana GOP gubernatorial primary is a perfect example. That race was dominated by national, culture-war coded topics: the 'war on woke,' virtue signaling about trans athletes, or border enforcement in a state that is hundreds of miles from the closest border. That is why Trump's allies think they can dictate Indiana's maps. But resistance, right now, would be timely, brave, and necessary pushback against this insidious trend and a chance to remind voters that Indiana's leaders should answer to Indiana, not to a fading national figure. The unwritten rule of American politics has been that districts are redrawn after every decennial census, in a manner that may advance partisan goals. It's actually a fairly elegant agreement: count the people, draw districts, and redo it after the next count. This norm keeps the system from being brutalized by a would-be dictator in pursuit of raw power, while acknowledging the reality that political actors will pursue political goals. Our legislators understand this, which is why they don't want to do it. Here's the thing, and it is really the only thing that matters: they don't have to do it. This decision belongs entirely to Indiana's legislature. Like I told my daughter: Donald Trump is not their boss. The only tool MAGA has is political pressure, and if you take a closer look, there's a decent case for not bending the knee. Very soon, Trump will be a lame-duck president, likely presiding over a recession. And like an aging NFL wide receiver (remember the Andre Johnson year with the Colts, woof), his decline will probably be sudden and striking, not gradual. If you're an elected Republican, this is exactly the moment to create daylight between yourself and Trump. You have a clear moral case, and a strong practical one, since this amounts to threatening decades of statewide dominance for maybe one more congressional seat. Yes, they can threaten to primary you, but can they really primary all of you? That's a bluff worth calling, because they cannot be allowed to win this one. Yes, Trump Derangement Syndrome is a real thing. Yes, Trump's opponents have cried fascism so often that many people have tuned out. But, if you remember your Aesop, the real danger of crying wolf is that sometimes the wolf actually shows up. Here's hoping that the Indiana legislature holds the line.
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump backed a scramble to redraw congressional seats in Texas. Michigan ‘not engaging'
Michigan is a political battleground, but the state will likely stay out of the redistricting war threatening to upend the congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm election. In fact, Michigan's swing state status has yielded divided state government, essentially taking it out of a fight in which one-party rule is a kind of precondition for participation. The process of drawing new voting districts typically happens once every ten years following the decennial census. But a mid-decade redistricting shake-up began when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, called a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts in his state. President Donald Trump has expressed his hope that new lines will allow Republicans to pick up five more seats for Texas in the U.S. House of Representatives. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has moved ahead with a plan to suspend the map drawn by his state's independent redistricting commission to ask voters to adopt lines that favor Democrats. Michigan has a redistricting commission similar to the one in California. Independent redistricting advocates have railed against politically skewed voting districts designed to benefit one political party, describing such gerrymandering as a way to distort election outcomes by letting politicians choose their voters instead of the other way around. In Michigan, voters passed a constitutional amendment in 2018 that wrested control of the redistricting process from lawmakers and put the pen in the hands of a group of randomly selected voters charged with drawing fair maps. Several factors mean Michigan is all but guaranteed to stay on the sidelines of the battle to control Congress by changing the map: legal safeguards protecting Michigan's citizen-led redistricting process, the partisan makeup of the state's Legislature, election timelines and a general disinterest among politicians to interfere. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said she has no interest in redrawing the lines. "We're not changing any maps in Michigan," she told reporters Aug. 20. "What's going on in Texas I think is an affront to democracy, and so it's understandable that you've got other states starting to have similar conversations about what's possible. We're not engaging in that here in Michigan." While the leaders of both major political parties in the state may not agree on much, they have one thing in common: neither is clamoring to see a new congressional map put in place before the 2030 census triggers the next redistricting cycle. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel condemned Texas Republicans' redistricting push as a power grab and applauded Democratic governors for trying to fight the map with their own efforts to change their state's congressional districts. But Hertel said he's not calling on Michigan Democrats to try to follow in their footsteps, and he expressed pride in the redistricting process approved by Michigan voters to create fair maps. "I don't want to go back," he said. It also wasn't top of mind for Michigan GOP Chair state Sen. Jim Runestad, R-White Lake, who said he wanted to do more research on the redistricting fight playing out in Texas before commenting. In a follow-up call, Runestad characterized Newsom's redistricting push as a partisan endeavor in contrast to Texas, where he said lawmakers seemed to be focused on addressing concerns the U.S. Department of Justice raised about how their congressional map divided voters of color into different voting districts. Critics have characterized the department's allegations as a kind of pretext for partisan gerrymandering in Texas. Even if Michigan politicians wanted to try to take back control of the redistricting process now, they would have a steep hill to climb. Changing the process in Michigan would require an amendment to the state's constitution. With the support of two-thirds of members in both chambers of the Michigan Legislature, lawmakers could put forward a constitutional amendment asking voters to change the redistricting process again. But Michigan Democrats control the Michigan Senate while Republicans control the Michigan House, a composition that makes it highly unlikely lawmakers would come together across party lines to agree to such an amendment. Michigan voters could also propose a constitutional amendment, but no campaign has emerged to put redistricting back on the ballot to ask voters to essentially dismantle the redistricting process that they put in place. Even if it did, voters wouldn't have a chance to take it up until the November 2026 election. Christy McGillivray, who serves as executive director of Voters Not Politicians, which spearheaded the anti-gerrymandering campaign in Michigan, said she has faith that Michigan voters want to stick with a citizen-led, independent redistricting process, saying fairness is a principle that brings them together despite their political differences. "They're even-keeled and the current hyper-partisanship coming from the federal government doesn't reflect the majority of Michiganders. It really doesn't," she said. Like California and Texas, many of the other states that could become entangled in the mid-decade redistricting war are solidly Republican or solidly Democratic states. Michigan, meanwhile, has a competitive political geography. More: Mayor Mike Duggan, Chief Todd Bettison laud feds for helping decrease crime in Detroit The state's congressional map features some of the most highly contested districts in the U.S. Political operatives see a path to gerrymander Michigan voting districts to favor one political party. "It would be easy to do," said Jeff Timmer, the former Michigan GOP executive director who helped draw voting districts to favor Republicans before voters put an independent redistricting process in place. But Timmer also said that the state's map creates some obstacles to such an attempt. Someone could draw a map that makes the state's competitive congressional districts slightly more Republican- or Democratic-leaning, but he likened that to stepping on a balloon. For instance, a mapper couldn't make a competitive seat in Oakland County and still have one in Macomb County, Timmer said. An attempt to gerrymander wouldn't provide the "clear, decisive, slam dunk" for partisans in Michigan like it does in California or Texas, he said. Contact Clara Hendrickson at chendrickson@ or 313-296-5743. This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan set to avoid mid-decade congressional map redraw
The Hill
28 minutes ago
- The Hill
Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP
Democrats are sounding the alarm on new data showing they are losing voters to Republicans across the country. A devastating New York Times report Wednesday showed that of the 30 states that maintain voter registration records by political party, Democrats fell behind Republicans in all of them between the 2020 and 2024 elections. In total, Republicans added up to 4.5 million voters compared to Democrats, creating a huge hold that could set Democrats back for years. 'I think it should be an alarm' for the Democratic Party, said party strategist Eddie Vale. 'I think it's a real problem.' The new data comes as Democrats struggle to figure out how to get out of the political wilderness after losing the presidency to Donald Trump and control of both chambers of Congress to the GOP. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has found traction with attacks on Trump, mimicking the president on social media and energizing many in his party. But the Democratic brand itself has taken a number of big hits, and The New York Times data is just the latest point suggesting the party has lost its way. Vale noted that a span of voters, including people of different races and ages, were abandoning the party, according to the Times reporting. He said his worry is that all of these different kinds of voters feel like the Democratic Party left them. They 'all shared the broader fact that they are working class and not feeling like we were talking to them or actually going to help them, so that needs to be fixed,' he said. Another Democratic strategist found the report disheartening at a time when Democrats are feeling rudderless and leaderless and lacking a coherent message for voters. 'Two things need to happen for Trump's political movement to fail: Trump and MAGA popularity plummets and Democrats' brand popularity rises,' the strategist said. 'The former is happening but not the latter.' 'You have to have something clear to offer an alternative vision,' the strategist added. 'The voter registration lag is directly related to this because the Democratic brand is flat. It's one of the reasons why the most successful Democrats in this environment run against both parties.' Democrats have been feeling dejected since their devastating defeat in November, when they lost control of not just the presidency but the House and the Senate, which they had previously controlled. Recent polls show that Democrats view their party as weak. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in July revealed that about 1 in 5 Democrats described their party in a positive light. And a poll by the Democratic super PAC Unite the Country obtained by The Hill last month showed that voters perceived the Democratic Party as 'out of touch,' 'woke' and 'weak.' The struggle to connect with voters has been a running theme for months, with even Democrats acknowledging that they have yet to put forward a compelling message. A Wall Street Journal poll out late last month showed Democrats' popularity had hit the lowest point in 35 years, as 63 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of the party. At the same time, 33 percent of those surveyed held a favorable view. The drop in voter registration for Democrats 'matches what we see in the polls,' said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support Trump. 'People are unsatisfied with what the Democrats are offering.' 'It shows how Democrats took things for granted and got out-hustled by Republicans, and I don't say that with glee or anything else,' Del Percio added. 'But the numbers are there, and this is proof in the pudding.' A major Democratic donor was more scathing: 'Our party sucks. Our leadership sucks. Our message sucks. Why would anyone want to be a Democrat?' 'We're completely out of touch,' the donor said. Democrats also say they are aware of voters' perceptions and views of the party and have sought to make inroads with key demographics that have strayed from their party. They have been conducting a series of postmortems and focus groups in an effort to win the voters back. Steve Schale, the veteran Democratic strategist, said the only voter registration that has 'really moved the needle in the last 20 years has been centered around the party and candidates' and that Democrats should return to that model. 'Not only does party-based voter registration accomplish the rote goal of registering voters, it also requires the kind of outreach in key communities that we have long rightly been criticized for abandoning,' Schale said. 'But to this, donors have to be willing to support the DNC [Democratic National Committee] and state parties.' 'It won't happen on its own,' Schale added. At the same time, Vale cautioned that the Democratic Party should not simply mend what's broken. They have to be forward-looking. 'We need to make sure that while we fix it we don't only fight the last war and not be attuned to things possibly changing again,' Vale said. 'Because we have already seen in a lot of polling that younger people, Latino and African American men are souring on Trump and that can be something that can be the leading edge of winning them back registration-wise.' In the end, Democratic strategist Anthony Coley said, the numbers amount to trust with voters and 'a larger problem with the Democratic brand.' 'Voters have run away from the party for a variety of reasons but trust — or the lack of it — tops the list,' Coley said. 'Too many voters just don't trust the Democratic Party to deliver on issues they care about.'
