Grilling season demand for Aussie beef outweighs Trump tariffs
It has been more than two months since Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs were announced, which included a 10 per cent tariff on imported Australian beef.
But US demand for lean beef has far outweighed the tariff and exports have been surging.
"In terms of volume, I don't think Trump's tariffs have had an impact at all," Rabobank analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
"Year to date, beef exports are up over 30 per cent and if we continue at this pace, we'll go very close to pushing our quota limit for the first time (which is about 450,000 tonnes)."
According to Meat and Livestock Australia, 167,722 tonnes of beef have been shipped to the US so far this year, which is up 32 per cent.
Beef exports to China are also rising, with 117,341 tonnes exported, up 30 per cent on last year.
General manager of meat processing company, The Midfield Group, Dean McKenna, said Donald Trump's tariffs were "one of the best things" that had happened to his business.
"I wish he went 50 per cent [tariff]," he told Queensland Country Life.
The United States cattle herd is at its lowest point since the 1950s because of drought.
The supply of lean beef for America's famous hamburgers is tight.
Going into its summer "grilling season" the United States has been relying on beef imports, which has coincided with Australia producing record amounts.
"The US needs a lot [of lean beef] and Australia has a lot to sell, especially the way the prices are at the moment," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
US cattle and beef prices are at record highs and are expected to rise further in 2026, making imported Australian beef very competitive — despite the 10 per cent tariff.
According to Rabobank the average finished cattle price in the US is over $US4.50 a kilogram live-weight ($A6.92/kg), compared to about $US2.25 a kilogram for Australian cattle ($A3.46/kg).
Beef made headlines on Friday, when it was suggested Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was willing to "loosen or compromise biosecurity rules" for US beef imports.
A claim the PM quickly denied.
As previously explained by ABC Landline, Australia does not have a ban on United States beef, as long as it comes from cattle born, raised and slaughtered in the US.
The Australian government has been assessing a request from the US to expand its access, to include beef from cattle that it has imported from Mexico and Canada and then slaughtered in the US.
Yet at the moment, the US has a ban on importing Mexican cattle because of an exotic pest called new world screwworm.
Cattle Australia chief executive, Chris Parker, said the US would need to prove it can be like Australian beef exporters, which adhere to strict traceability standards.
"Our position is that the US needs to be able to demonstrate it can either trace cattle born in Mexico and Canada, or has systems that are equivalent to Australia's traceability, before imports of meat could occur from non-US cattle," he said.
Australia has not imported any beef from the US since 2005 for a few reasons including price.
Australia also has plenty of its own beef.
In 2024, Australia produced more beef than ever before, turning off 2.57 million tonnes of beef, of which a record 1.34 million tonnes was exported around the world.
So imagine if Australia exported iron ore for $100 a tonne and was then criticised for not importing American iron ore for $200 a tonne.
As meat analyst Simon Quilty recently told Landline, importing US beef is not viable.
"I don't see us being swamped by American beef, in fact I'd say for the next five years, even if the US had open access, we'd see next to nothing coming out of America."
Watch ABC TV's Landline at 12:30pm on Sunday or on ABC iview.
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