Donald Trump Has a Family Policy. Stop Laughing.
THE ANIMATING BELIEFS OF THIS ADMINISTRATION range from dangerously wrong to head-spinningly crazy. Tariffs are in the first tranche, along with the myth that NATO has been ripping off the United States for decades, that immigrants commit more crimes than native-born Americans, and that 'He who saves his Country does not violate any Law' (just to name four). The beliefs that vaccines cause autism, that fluoridated water is a public-health threat, that threatening allies and neighbors enhances national security, and that taxing foreign holders of Treasuries would be a good way to solve the (nonexistent) problem of trade deficits belong in the second tranche.
The Trump administration marries insane ideas to gross, bullying tactics. But even when this administration stumbles upon an idea that is not deranged, illegal, or immoral, it has the capacity to do great harm. I'm thinking of the apparent plans to encourage marriage and motherhood. The administration is reportedly considering proposals to award mothers $5,000 'baby bonuses,' to reserve 30 percent of Fulbright scholarships to parents, to reduce the costs of IVF (not clear how), and to fund programs to educate women about ovulation cycles (I kid you not).
I've been promoting marriage for decades, not as part of a religious agenda but as the result of studying the social-science literature demonstrating that marriage makes adults happier than non-marriage and that stable, two-parent homes are the best environment for raising children, building thriving neighborhoods, and reducing crime, homelessness, and substance abuse.
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The Trump administration cannot adopt this message without turning it rancid. If you hope to persuade people, you must start by showing good faith—that your intentions for them are good. This crowd has displayed open contempt for women—at least those women who vote for the other party or otherwise assert their individuality. In light of the president's apparent requirement that any nominee for a major cabinet role have at least one serious accusation of sexual misconduct, the vice president's sneers about 'childless cat ladies' seem mild. Matt Gaetz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth, and Linda McMahon all trailed accusations that would have been disqualifying in any other administration. (Only Gaetz was undone.)
But then, the thrice-married, adulterous president himself has been found legally liable for sexual assault in the E. Jean Carroll case, and has been accused of similar behavior half a dozen or so times by other women. What that may mean is that Trump must convince himself and others that accusations of sexual misconduct are always and everywhere 'fake news.' Also, he just doesn't give a damn. Trump has endorsed and campaigned with alleged sexual predators ranging from Roy Moore to Herschel Walker, and one of his first acts as president in the second term was to effectuate the release of Andrew and Tristan Tate from custody in Romania on rape and human trafficking charges. (So they can effectuate releases from foreign countries.)
The Trump crowd's approach to fertility is not the joy of parenthood or the warmth of close families. It's more like the 'Great Replacement' theory made flesh. Give them credit for honesty, I guess. They don't really claim to be speaking up for family values. Instead, as Elon Musk admits, he wants a 'legion' of offspring 'before the apocalypse' and is creating a harem to achieve it. He is married, but also father to at least fourteen children by four different women and willing to outsource his semen upon request. 'No romance or anything,' he explained to one baby mama, 'just sperm.'
It's remarkable to consider that Musk is a pinup for the GOP these days. I well remember the party of 'family values.' Musk is the most famous progenitor of illegitimacy in the world. (William J. Bennett, call your office.)
THE TRUMP CROWD WORRIES about America's declining fertility rate and yet treats immigration as a mortal threat. So when they encourage childbearing, the not-so-veiled subtext is that they want not more babies but more white babies. Perhaps they will begin awarding 'Mother Heroine' honors as the Soviet Union did, or the 'Cross of Honor' with which Nazi Germany rewarded fecundity.
You don't convince women in a free country to have more babies for the sake of the fatherland. If you want to encourage family formation and increase the birth rate, you can't treat women as breeder mares. It helps to model good behavior. That includes being good husbands who don't cheat on their wives, good fathers who actually live with their kids, and good parents who don't commit or condone adultery.
Baby bonuses have been tried in other countries with poor results. Hungary has adopted a suite of policies to support families that are far more generous than what the Trump administration is considering, but the results have been disappointing. Singapore, South Korea, and Russia have seen similar results. Subsidies for babies don't seem to budge fertility rates much if at all. Poland's program of incentives showed some early success but more recent data found that childbearing is still trending down.
There are many things governments can do to ease the burden on parents—tax credits, parental leave, and banning smartphones in schools, among other ideas—but policymakers should keep their expectations in check about the effect these initiatives will have on fertility. If they just make family life easier and better, that's a good start. But frankly, we'd all be better off if the Trump people stay far away from family policy, lest they besmirch it.
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