Bradshaw: Elite college admissions is now a game of chicken that most don't know they're playing
The truth is, top-tier admissions today is less like applying for a job — and more like a high-speed game of chicken. Colleges want to admit students who are almost certain to say yes. Applicants, meanwhile, want to keep their options open. What happens when neither side flinches? You crash.
It's called yield protection, and if you haven't heard of it, you probably don't know why your valedictorian didn't get into Vanderbilt — or why that quiet sophomore who never joined a single club just got into Princeton.
Yield protection refers to a quiet, unofficial practice where elite schools waitlist or reject top students they believe won't attend. If you're a student with a near-perfect GPA, a 1560 SAT, and no demonstrated interest in Northwestern, you might be quietly bumped in favor of a slightly lower-scoring peer who took the campus tour, emailed admissions, and applied Early Decision.
The numbers explain why. Colleges are ranked not just by selectivity but by yield — the percentage of admitted students who enroll. A high yield suggests a school is a top choice. A low yield looks desperate. Schools care — a lot.
So they make educated guesses: Will this kid actually come here? If the answer is no — or even maybe — they move on. And because none of this is ever made public, families are left scratching their heads, blaming bad luck or overconfidence.
Here's the kicker: The most prepared families have already gamed the system. They know that the 'safety vs. reach' model is outdated. They focus instead on signal management — sending cues to colleges that their child is serious.
That means applying Early Decision (if financially possible), visiting campuses in person, attending local info sessions, joining mailing lists, and even writing optional 'Why us?' essays with tactical precision. In other words: not just being a great applicant, but making sure a school knows it's one of your top three.
This is why elite admissions now favors two types of students: the early-bird committed, and the under-the-radar wildcard. The first locks in a spot through clear signals of interest. The second gets through because they're just too interesting to ignore. The student caught in the middle — qualified, but hedging — gets culled.
What's strange is how few families understand this. Even among top prep schools and international consultants, many still cling to a 1990s mindset: cast a wide net, avoid narrowing options, let the offers roll in. That model doesn't work anymore — not at the top.
Consider Emory University. Its acceptance rate last year was just under 12%, but its Early Decision admit rate was more than double that. Northwestern accepted fewer than 7% overall — but closer to 20% of ED applicants. These are not anomalies. They're incentives. And they're growing stronger every year.
The shift isn't just strategic. It's philosophical. As elite universities chase prestige and rankings, they've begun acting more like hedge funds — optimizing every metric, managing reputational risk, and placing bets based not just on talent, but probability. That includes gaming their own data to impress U.S. News and World Report rankings.
For students and families, this raises uncomfortable questions. Should you apply Early Decision to a school that's not your first choice, just to improve your odds? Should you flatter a school with emails and visits, even if you'd rather go elsewhere? Should you hide the fact you're applying to Ivies from a school like Rice or Tufts?
These are hard choices. But smart families are at least aware they exist.
The worst outcome isn't rejection. It's being shut out because you didn't know the rules had changed.
Admissions is still a meritocracy — but it's not a passive one. It rewards not just brilliance, but strategy.
And in this game of chicken, the schools aren't blinking.
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Chicago Tribune
3 days ago
- Chicago Tribune
Bradshaw: Elite college admissions is now a game of chicken that most don't know they're playing
In the high-stakes world of elite college admissions, families like to believe they're driving the process. They research schools, compare rankings, sign up for campus tours, and encourage their high-achieving teens to 'find the right fit.' But as decisions grow more opaque and acceptance rates dip into the low single digits, many applicants are realizing too late that they've misread the rules of the game. The truth is, top-tier admissions today is less like applying for a job — and more like a high-speed game of chicken. Colleges want to admit students who are almost certain to say yes. Applicants, meanwhile, want to keep their options open. What happens when neither side flinches? You crash. It's called yield protection, and if you haven't heard of it, you probably don't know why your valedictorian didn't get into Vanderbilt — or why that quiet sophomore who never joined a single club just got into Princeton. Yield protection refers to a quiet, unofficial practice where elite schools waitlist or reject top students they believe won't attend. If you're a student with a near-perfect GPA, a 1560 SAT, and no demonstrated interest in Northwestern, you might be quietly bumped in favor of a slightly lower-scoring peer who took the campus tour, emailed admissions, and applied Early Decision. The numbers explain why. Colleges are ranked not just by selectivity but by yield — the percentage of admitted students who enroll. A high yield suggests a school is a top choice. A low yield looks desperate. Schools care — a lot. So they make educated guesses: Will this kid actually come here? If the answer is no — or even maybe — they move on. And because none of this is ever made public, families are left scratching their heads, blaming bad luck or overconfidence. Here's the kicker: The most prepared families have already gamed the system. They know that the 'safety vs. reach' model is outdated. They focus instead on signal management — sending cues to colleges that their child is serious. That means applying Early Decision (if financially possible), visiting campuses in person, attending local info sessions, joining mailing lists, and even writing optional 'Why us?' essays with tactical precision. In other words: not just being a great applicant, but making sure a school knows it's one of your top three. This is why elite admissions now favors two types of students: the early-bird committed, and the under-the-radar wildcard. The first locks in a spot through clear signals of interest. The second gets through because they're just too interesting to ignore. The student caught in the middle — qualified, but hedging — gets culled. What's strange is how few families understand this. Even among top prep schools and international consultants, many still cling to a 1990s mindset: cast a wide net, avoid narrowing options, let the offers roll in. That model doesn't work anymore — not at the top. Consider Emory University. Its acceptance rate last year was just under 12%, but its Early Decision admit rate was more than double that. Northwestern accepted fewer than 7% overall — but closer to 20% of ED applicants. These are not anomalies. They're incentives. And they're growing stronger every year. The shift isn't just strategic. It's philosophical. As elite universities chase prestige and rankings, they've begun acting more like hedge funds — optimizing every metric, managing reputational risk, and placing bets based not just on talent, but probability. That includes gaming their own data to impress U.S. News and World Report rankings. For students and families, this raises uncomfortable questions. Should you apply Early Decision to a school that's not your first choice, just to improve your odds? Should you flatter a school with emails and visits, even if you'd rather go elsewhere? Should you hide the fact you're applying to Ivies from a school like Rice or Tufts? These are hard choices. But smart families are at least aware they exist. The worst outcome isn't rejection. It's being shut out because you didn't know the rules had changed. Admissions is still a meritocracy — but it's not a passive one. It rewards not just brilliance, but strategy. And in this game of chicken, the schools aren't blinking.
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The Relationship Advice Couples Counselors Swear By
Every relationship is unique — a delicate ecosystem influenced by partners' pasts, preferences and particular foibles. And yet therapists who spend their days talking to couples say they tend to see and hear the same issues come up again and again: Partners who struggle to reconnect after arguments; lose their sense of levity and play; or fall into patterns, without taking the time to understand them. We reached out to several couples therapists, with that in mind, to ask: What's one piece of advice you find yourself repeating? What's one relationship lesson you swear by? What's one truism you wish more couples understood? Here's what they told us. (Let us know what you think about the advice, and add your own in the comments.) 1. Managing your differences is crucial. 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Parents and teachers spend a lot of time teaching young children how to take turns during playtime and conversation, but couples often forget that very basic skill, said Julie Menanno, a licensed marriage and family therapist in Bozeman, Mont., and the author of 'Secure Love.' It sounds simple, but couples who neglect to take turns have a tendency to start talking over each other, Ms. Menanno said. 'Nobody's being heard. Nobody's listening. Everybody's taking the mic,' she said, adding that couples 'get stuck in whose needs matter more and who gets to hurt the most.' Every couple she works with has to learn or relearn how to take turns, Ms. Menanno said. Some basics: Look to have conversations when you're feeling calm and regulated, listen when your partner is speaking and paraphrase what you heard, asking if they want to elaborate. 5. Sliding and deciding are not the same thing. Galena Rhoades, a psychologist and research professor at the University of Denver and co-author of 'Fighting For Your Marriage' (the fourth edition), often reminds couples that there is a big difference between passively 'sliding' into circumstances — everything from how often you have sex to where you want to live — and proactively deciding what is right for the relationship. Dr. Rhoades has found that understanding the difference can be empowering to couples — a reminder that they can be more deliberate about issues big and small, even if they have been doing things a certain way for years. 'You don't have to stay on that kind of coasting trajectory where you're just sliding through things together,' she said. 'You can change your approach and be more intentional.' 6. Happy couples never stop playing together. Play and laughter can soothe the nervous system, helping you cope with stress and bring your best self to the relationship. Those activities can sometimes fizzle out over time between couples, said Stephen Mitchell, a psychotherapist in Denver and co-author of 'Too Tired to Fight.' 'People underestimate the power of humor in terms of helping couples feel connected and helping them work through challenging moments,' Dr. Mitchell said. He often urges his clients to look diligently for opportunities to have fun together. Small things can suffice: send a silly text, cultivate inside jokes or plan a surprise date. 7. You probably already know what to do. If you can get in touch with your genuine wants and needs, you may find the keys to improving your relationship, though it can take real courage to act on them. Jeff Guenther, a licensed professional counselor in Portland, Ore., who runs the popular social media account Therapy Jeff, said that sometimes his job as a therapist is simply to reassure people searching for answers in a relationship that they already know the solution. 'You know if it's working or it's not working,' he said. 'You know what conversations you've been avoiding. You know what you're settling for.' It can help to ask yourself something like: If my best friend or son or daughter was in the situation I'm in now, what advice would I give? (Sometimes, he said, the answer might be: See a couples therapist.) 8. Working on your own stress is a boon for your partner. Going through a rocky stretch in your relationship likely adds stress to your life. But consider the flip side — if you're not managing the stress in your life, it is likely spilling over into your relationship. Elizabeth Earnshaw, a licensed marriage and family therapist based in Philadelphia and the author of the book ''Til Stress Do Us Part,' said that when partners don't work to mitigate their own stress, it can cause a relationship disconnect. You become irritable, withdrawn, short with each other. That can lead to more arguments or cause you each to retreat, creating greater emotional distance. Ms. Earnshaw teaches couples a system she calls the stress spillover system. Together, they make a list of stressors, then put them into three baskets: Those they can shed (stressors they can and likely should eliminate), those they can prevent (usually with more planning) and those they can neither avoid nor plan for better, and therefore simply must adapt to. 'When people are mismanaging their stress they are also more likely to become 'self focused,' which means they will think of their own needs and agenda more than their partner's,' she said.
