Why Iraq's PMF disarmament is a different battle from Lebanon's Hezbollah

Shafaq News

a day ago

Shafaq News
The Lebanese government's decision to restrict all weapons to state control—including those held by Hezbollah and other non-official armed groups—has sparked strong internal and regional debate. The United States welcomed the move, but Hezbollah condemned it as a major 'sin,' warning against what it sees as an externally driven agenda.
Although the mechanism for implementation remains unclear, the announcement has reignited conversation in Iraq, where similar calls persist to disarm 'non-state actors' and dissolve armed factions outside the official military framework. Yet experts caution that Lebanon's path is not easily replicated in Iraq.
Hezbollah Disarmament: A Divisive Turning Point
The Lebanese decision marks an unprecedented step in the country's political history, following the endorsement of provisions outlined in US envoy Tom Barrack's proposal. Supporters view it as an extension of the ceasefire agreement and UN Resolution 1701. Critics, led by Hezbollah and its allies, denounce it as 'submission to American and Israeli conditions.'
Hezbollah maintains it has fulfilled its commitments under Resolution 1701 and the November 2024 ceasefire, including withdrawing from areas south of the Litani River, while accusing Israel of failing to withdraw from five border points and continuing daily assassinations of civilians and its members.
The presidency and the prime minister's office prioritize disarmament, but Hezbollah and its allies insist that Israel must first vacate Lebanese territory and release prisoners before any internal dialogue on a national defense strategy can begin. This deadlock shows no sign of resolution, prompting the Lebanese Army to deploy reinforcements nationwide to contain potential unrest.
Political analyst Mohammad Hamieh told Shafaq News the army itself has not agreed to disarm Hezbollah. The cabinet, he explained, discussed the US proposal without full consensus—especially after the withdrawal of a major Shiite bloc representing the resistance movement, which disrupted quorum. Instead of full ratification, the cabinet set general goals and tasked the army with preparing a plan by August 31 to consolidate weapons under state control.
Despite this looming deadline, Hezbollah remain defiant. 'Death is easier than surrendering our arms,' declared Mohamad Raad, head of the group's parliamentary bloc.
Formed in 1982 after Israel's invasion, Hezbollah rose as a resistance force, achieving the withdrawal of Israeli forces in 2000 and later fighting the 2006 war—framed by party officials as a 'divine victory.' Since the Taif Agreement, successive governments have affirmed Lebanon's 'right—through its people, army, and resistance—to liberate occupied territory.' That consensus has eroded, especially after Hezbollah's recent military losses against Israel.
Observers say the current political climate echoes the divisions preceding the 1982 invasion and the collapse of the US-brokered May 17, 1983 Accord.
Hezbollah remains popular and influential, securing the highest number of parliamentary votes in the last election. Yet the scale of its arsenal post-war remains unclear. The group's role in the 'unity of fronts' doctrine, coordinating with Iran's allies during the conflict, keeps it central to regional strategy.
Lebanon's Debate, Iraq's Question
Hamieh warned against generalizing Lebanon's still-unresolved situation to the wider region. International pressure, he said, seeks to replicate the Lebanese model in Iraq and Syria despite key differences.
In Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) operate under a formal government framework. 'There is a clear agreement between the government and the PMF, which played a successful role in combating terrorism,' Hamieh explained. 'Lebanon, by contrast, has no such formal agreement—just political coexistence.'
Unlike Lebanon, Iraq faces no Israeli occupation, and disarmament discussions focus more on potential threats from Syria—matters that could be addressed under a state-approved defense strategy.
Could it Happen in Iraq?
Iraqi security and legal experts agree that Iraq's complex political environment and entrenched regional ties make a Lebanese-style disarmament move unlikely for now.
Legal expert Mohammad Jumaa noted that Iraqi law, including the Weapons Law and Penal Code, criminalizes the possession or use of arms outside state authority. 'Any weapon outside the state's structure is illegal,' he told Shafaq News, 'whether licensed without official permission, or entirely unlicensed.' Penalties are harsher for military-grade arms.
Strategic analyst Ahmad al-Sharifi argued that dismantling armed factions in Iraq is blocked by entrenched power-sharing and the dominance of the Shiite Coordination Framework, which backs the current government. 'The government, as a product of that framework, cannot make decisions that run counter to its interests or Iran's preferences,' he said.
In Lebanon, al-Sharifi stressed it is too soon to judge the outcome, given Hezbollah's resistance and the possibility of armed confrontation with the Lebanese Army. He added that Iraqi factions—like Hezbollah—view their weapons as central to their political and ideological identity, making voluntary disarmament unrealistic. Forced dissolution, he warned, could trigger direct clashes with the state or external intervention, including targeted strikes by the United States or Israel if the government fails to impose control.
Not Applicable—For Now
Security expert Alaa al-Nashou concurred that Iraq's situation is fundamentally different. Iraqi factions never fought Israel and lack the robust military and economic infrastructure that Hezbollah has developed. Iraq's party system is also more fragmented, with parts of the state openly supporting armed factions and in some cases preferring them to the official army.
He attributed the state's weakness to 'deep Iranian influence in its institutions and the absence of strong regional or international backing,' which limits Baghdad's ability to curb non-state arms.
While Lebanon's disarmament plan is bold in its own context, analysts agree it is unworkable in Iraq for the time being. Obstacles go beyond legal prohibitions to include political realities, security dependencies, and the institutional integration of factions into the state's power structure. Without a fundamental shift in political will and regional alignments, the Lebanese precedent is unlikely to cross into Iraq.