How China's Baloch outreach signals Beijing's loss of trust in Pakistan

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2 days ago

Beijing has realised over the years that the Pakistani army is unable to control the rising freedom movement in Balochistan; thus, it decided to break protocol and engage directly with Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar, an alliance of Baloch freedom groups read more
During the recent visit to Beijing of Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's foreign minister and also deputy prime minister, the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was discussed. The CPEC is stumbling despite immense Chinese funding. Similarly, there has been no progress on Reko Diq mines, in which China has invested. All this because Pakistan has been unable to create a conducive environment for their progress.
A report in the Chinese mouthpiece, the Global Times, mentioned discussions during Dar's visit: 'The CPEC, as a major cooperation project, still faces various risks such as the threat of terrorism. Eliminating these threats has become an urgent issue for Pakistan.' China is displeased with Pakistan's handling of the Balochistan uprising, which has stalled the CPEC.
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As a sop to Islamabad, China arranged a trilateral meeting with the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, mentioned that an agreement has been reached to extend the CPEC to Afghanistan, indicating that Pakistan may earn some revenue from it.
The minutes of the meeting also mentioned, '(Pakistan and Afghanistan) would jointly combat terrorist forces of concern to each side.' As a consequence, Ishaq Dar announced in Hong Kong, 'I am pleased to announce the decision of the Government of Pakistan to upgrade the level of its Chargé d'affaires in Kabul to the level of Ambassador.' This means nothing to Afghanistan, which continues to claim that there are no terrorists on its soil.
Beijing has realised over the years that the Pakistani army is unable to control the rising freedom movement in Balochistan. It therefore decided to break protocol, bypass Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and engage directly with Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS), which is an alliance of Baloch freedom groups. This decision was announced on the heels of Pakistan's humiliating military loss to India in Operation Sindoor. The humiliation was possibly exploited by Beijing on the promise of providing military equipment to Pakistan. The decision, conveyed to Ishaq Dar in Beijing, conveys much more than just a message.
First, it sends the signal that it believes that the Pakistani army lacks the ability to contain these groups and safeguard the projects. Despite raising two divisions, each of 10,000 men, solely to protect Chinese workers, attacks continue. Since 2021, over 20 Chinese have been killed and 34 injured. Gwadar port has yet to commence operations, making the $240 million Chinese-funded Gwadar airport non-functional. The airport was constructed to meet the needs of the Chinese community residing in Gwadar, which has not happened.
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To defend itself from Chinese anger, Pakistan blames India for supporting Baloch groups. Post Ishaq Dar's Beijing visit, Pakistani media, on the orders of their army, have begun terming BRAS groups as 'Fitna al Hindustan', meaning 'Indian-sponsored proxies', not that it will cut much ice with Beijing or the world. If China had believed Pakistan, it would have preferred to talk directly with India on the subject but has not chosen to do so.
China has even deployed its private security companies, including Dewe Security Frontier Service Group, China Overseas Security Group, and Huaxin Zhongshan Security Service, to provide additional security, but to no avail. Attacks and protests still continue. Even the Pakistani army is at the receiving end, forced to hide casualties. Recent reports mention that Baloch rebels have taken over the crucial city of Surab, cutting the road from Quetta to Karachi as well as to Gwadar.
Secondly, Beijing believes that Pakistan, under the influence of the US, is moving slowly in providing security to the CPEC, opening doors for BRAS to target it at multiple locations. It assumes that Pakistan is playing a double game; after all, Islamabad has been doing so for ages. The Pakistani government had, in September 2023, taken the US ambassador to Pakistan, David Blome, to Gwadar.
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Islamabad is also negotiating a deal with the US, offering them mining concessions in Balochistan, akin to China, much to the Chinese dislike. What was insulting to Beijing was Asim Munir, their newly appointed field marshal, approaching Washington to push for a ceasefire, rather than China. Washington turned the request down, forcing Rawalpindi to approach India directly.
Third, Beijing is aware that Pakistan can do little by objecting. Its survival is dependent on Chinese finance companies rolling over their $22 billion loans. The day it threatens to stop doing so, Pakistan could economically collapse. Further, the Pakistan military desperately needs Chinese military equipment, aware of its shortcomings, to symbolically manage equivalence with India. Without Chinese backing, Pakistan's armed forces are hollow. Hence, it arm-twists Islamabad.
Fourth, China has realised that Rawalpindi has no leverage with the BRAS. The speed and confidence with which the Pakistani army is being attacked display that there is no possibility of any talks to end the conflict. Neither side trusts the other. All Pakistan has been doing is hiding casualty figures while exaggerating losses of the BRAS while losing ground daily. In the Jaffar train hijacking of March, Pakistan claimed there were 28 dead, while witnesses mentioned over a hundred coffins being moved. Rawalpindi announces operations as successful while BRAS simultaneously releases videos indicating the damage it has inflicted on the Pakistani army.
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Finally, China's actions send the message that Beijing considers BRAS as true controllers of Balochistan and not Islamabad. This is indirectly accepting Balochistan as an independent autonomous region, if not a country. It will become worse when China flies in the leaders of BRAS to Beijing and also offers them concessions from income flowing from its mining activities.
Baloch demands, including autonomy, stoppage of military operations and a direct share in revenue, bypassing Pakistan, will be contentious issues. Beijing may be compelled to pressure Islamabad to accept major Baloch conditions, making their control difficult. In case it does happen, even the US may adopt the same route, further embarrassing Islamabad. This will de facto imply that Balochistan is not under the control of Islamabad.
For any country, a third nation engaging in talks with those it terms as terrorists seeking independence would be considered as direct interference and unacceptable. It also implies that the third nation is unconcerned about any objections arising from its actions. China, by conveying its intent to Pakistan, has made it clear that what Islamabad feels is immaterial. It will do as it desires, and there is little Pakistan can do; after all, it is a vassal state.
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The problem is that BRAS comprises multiple groups, many of which are hardline. Convincing all may not be easy. Beijing is bound to request Kabul and also Tehran to push these groups to accept their terms. What will remain a matter of concern is what China can finally offer, which it could bulldoze through Islamabad.
For the recently made field marshal, Asim Munir, these talks convey that he has failed once again and China is insulting his army by directly engaging those who kill his soldiers, while he can just watch. He has already been insulted with the arrival of private Chinese security companies on his soil and a humiliating defeat by India. How many more times will he need to fail before his people know his true worth?
The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
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