
Polish presidential vote tests PM's European vision
Poles were voting in a presidential election that will decide whether Warsaw follows the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or steps towards bringing back the nationalist admirers of US President Donald Trump.
Trump's return to power has energised eurosceptics and Sunday's ballot will be the sternest test of Tusk's pro-European vision since he came to power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
The election pits Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, from Tusk's Civic Coalition, against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by PiS.
Trzaskowski has been cast as the frontrunner, likely to face Nawrocki in a run-off on June 1 if no candidate wins more than 50 per cent.
Media blackout laws forbid the publication of opinion poll results from early on Saturday until voting ends on Sunday.
Also competing are far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the left.
The Polish first-round vote takes place on the same day as a second-round presidential run-off in Romania, where George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to "Make Romania Great Again", faces centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.
A victory for two eurosceptic candidates would send shockwaves through the European Union as the bloc grapples with the twin challenges of Russia's invasion of Poland's eastern neighbour Ukraine and Trump's tariffs.
Polls in Poland opened at 7am on Sunday (0500 GMT) and close at 9pm, with some 29 million people eligible to vote.
The Polish president has limited executive powers but can veto legislation.
That has allowed outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, to stymie Tusk's efforts to undo judicial changes implemented under the PiS, which Tusk says hamper democracy.
Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland's role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS's judicial changes.
"I would definitely strengthen relations with our partners ... within NATO and the EU," he told state broadcaster TVP Info on Friday.
"I will also ask lawmakers to give me the bills Duda vetoed to sign ... I also hope that we will end the chaos in the justice system that PiS left us."
Nawrocki's campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide.
But Trump showed support by meeting Nawrocki in the White House.
Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Tusk achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor patronised LGBTQI marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.
"The cross that my opponent took down in Warsaw ... 1000 years of heritage of the Polish state, is our strength, is our energy," he told a rally in the eastern city of Lublin.
Unlike some other eurosceptics in central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia.
However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbour.
He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticised Kyiv's attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Sydney Morning Herald
6 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Has Trump created an opportunity for the euro to displace the US dollar?
Others, conscious that the US relies on foreign capital inflows to fund its yawning (and rapidly growing) government deficits and debt and enable the government and US citizens to live beyond their means, won't view the apparent crack in the value of the dollar and the US markets' status as the world's safe haven quite as positively. In the near term, the weaker US dollar also means the inflationary impacts in the US of Trump's trade war on the rest of the world will be exaggerated. A strong dollar, by making imports cheap in US dollar term, would muffle the impact on inflation. 'European leaders have recognised the window of opportunity opened by America's self-destructive trade policies.' The likely effects of Trump's war is reflected in this week's downgrading of the outlook for global and US growth by the World Bank, which sees global growth slowing from 2.8 per cent last year to 2.3 per cent and growth in the US economy halving from 2.8 per cent to 1.4 per cent. That outlook, if it eventuates, would provide even less reason to invest in the US and would result in an even greater reduction in demand for US dollars. Does that provide an opportunity for the euro? Perhaps, albeit not one that could be easily or quickly realised. The dollar has reined supreme as the world's reserve currency in the post-war era and still does. Even though the degree of dominance has been waning in recent years, it still accounts for about 58 per cent of central bank reserves – it was above 70 per cent in the early years of this century and was still above 60 per cent five years ago – and about 55 per cent of trade invoicing is denominated in dollars. The euro ranks second on both counts, with a 30 per cent or so share of reserves and a similar share of trade financing. The challenge for the Europeans, if they want to challenge the dollar's status, is that, while they might have the 'next best' currency, they lack some of the foundations that would make it the reserve currency. Loading They do have a floating exchange rate, no capital controls, an independent and respected central bank and an independent and respected judicial system. They don't have deep and liquid capital markets nor a single economy that is growing consistently and strongly, nor do they have current account deficits to expand the supply of euros – the European Union consistently runs current account surpluses (and hence is a major target for Trump's tariffs). The European capital markets are fragmented and shallow – European companies rely on banks rather than markets as their primary source of funding – and the condition of the underlying economies varies considerably. The closest thing the EU has to a US Treasury bond is a Germany bund but, where the US Treasury market has about $US28 trillion ($43 trillion) of securities on issue, the market for bunds is only about €1.8 trillion (about $3.2 trillion). That market, thanks to the historic decision to reform the country's 'debt brake' in order to use debt-financing for what might be a €600 billion increase in military spending, will grow, but it would still remain small relative to the Treasury market. Loading What could the EU do to create a deeper bond market? It could issue eurobonds, or debt raised on behalf of all its members and backed by all their economies. It has toyed with that idea for decades and, indeed, created a eurobond facility of up to €800 billion to help member countries recover from the pandemic, although those bonds are supposed to progressively mature and disappear by 2058. Germany has historically been opposed to the issuance of collective EU debt. It's strict fiscal discipline means it can borrow more cheaply than other EU members and pay lower interest rates on its debt. With eurobonds, it would pay more and effectively be subsidising the rest of the EU. The prize for the EU as a whole – a greater share of world reserves, a more stable currency in stressful times, cheaper funding generally and therefore greater economic growth and the geopolitical benefits from having a reserve currency – is, however, worth striving for. The EU could do more trade in euros – it buys a lot of energy but pays for it almost exclusively in US dollars, for instance – it could issue a digital euro to facilitate global transactions, and it could integrate its economies and policies more deeply. It could also do as the US Federal Reserve Board has done in financial crises, and create permanent swap lines with its major trading partners to provide euro liquidity in moment of stress. That would bolster confidence in the currency. It is improbable that the euro could displace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in anything other than the truly long term. Loading It could, however, increase its share of global reserves and transactions and share some of the dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' – the ability to borrow cheaply without any real limits, the haven status in a crisis, the ability, if they ever transpired, to run trade deficits without any fear of a balance of payments crisis, and, above all, the enhanced geopolitical authority the EU has always sought. European leaders have recognised the window of opportunity opened by America's self-destructive trade policies – it's been a growing topic of conversation in Europe since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement – but have also acknowledged the complexities and obstacles to taking advantage of it. Still, small but important steps could be taken, with eurobond issuance at the forefront and, with the EU members committed to ramping up their defence spending in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this could be an instance where, thanks to Trump and Vladimir Putin, opportunity and need start to converge.

The Age
6 hours ago
- The Age
Has Trump created an opportunity for the euro to displace the US dollar?
Others, conscious that the US relies on foreign capital inflows to fund its yawning (and rapidly growing) government deficits and debt and enable the government and US citizens to live beyond their means, won't view the apparent crack in the value of the dollar and the US markets' status as the world's safe haven quite as positively. In the near term, the weaker US dollar also means the inflationary impacts in the US of Trump's trade war on the rest of the world will be exaggerated. A strong dollar, by making imports cheap in US dollar term, would muffle the impact on inflation. 'European leaders have recognised the window of opportunity opened by America's self-destructive trade policies.' The likely effects of Trump's war is reflected in this week's downgrading of the outlook for global and US growth by the World Bank, which sees global growth slowing from 2.8 per cent last year to 2.3 per cent and growth in the US economy halving from 2.8 per cent to 1.4 per cent. That outlook, if it eventuates, would provide even less reason to invest in the US and would result in an even greater reduction in demand for US dollars. Does that provide an opportunity for the euro? Perhaps, albeit not one that could be easily or quickly realised. The dollar has reined supreme as the world's reserve currency in the post-war era and still does. Even though the degree of dominance has been waning in recent years, it still accounts for about 58 per cent of central bank reserves – it was above 70 per cent in the early years of this century and was still above 60 per cent five years ago – and about 55 per cent of trade invoicing is denominated in dollars. The euro ranks second on both counts, with a 30 per cent or so share of reserves and a similar share of trade financing. The challenge for the Europeans, if they want to challenge the dollar's status, is that, while they might have the 'next best' currency, they lack some of the foundations that would make it the reserve currency. Loading They do have a floating exchange rate, no capital controls, an independent and respected central bank and an independent and respected judicial system. They don't have deep and liquid capital markets nor a single economy that is growing consistently and strongly, nor do they have current account deficits to expand the supply of euros – the European Union consistently runs current account surpluses (and hence is a major target for Trump's tariffs). The European capital markets are fragmented and shallow – European companies rely on banks rather than markets as their primary source of funding – and the condition of the underlying economies varies considerably. The closest thing the EU has to a US Treasury bond is a Germany bund but, where the US Treasury market has about $US28 trillion ($43 trillion) of securities on issue, the market for bunds is only about €1.8 trillion (about $3.2 trillion). That market, thanks to the historic decision to reform the country's 'debt brake' in order to use debt-financing for what might be a €600 billion increase in military spending, will grow, but it would still remain small relative to the Treasury market. Loading What could the EU do to create a deeper bond market? It could issue eurobonds, or debt raised on behalf of all its members and backed by all their economies. It has toyed with that idea for decades and, indeed, created a eurobond facility of up to €800 billion to help member countries recover from the pandemic, although those bonds are supposed to progressively mature and disappear by 2058. Germany has historically been opposed to the issuance of collective EU debt. It's strict fiscal discipline means it can borrow more cheaply than other EU members and pay lower interest rates on its debt. With eurobonds, it would pay more and effectively be subsidising the rest of the EU. The prize for the EU as a whole – a greater share of world reserves, a more stable currency in stressful times, cheaper funding generally and therefore greater economic growth and the geopolitical benefits from having a reserve currency – is, however, worth striving for. The EU could do more trade in euros – it buys a lot of energy but pays for it almost exclusively in US dollars, for instance – it could issue a digital euro to facilitate global transactions, and it could integrate its economies and policies more deeply. It could also do as the US Federal Reserve Board has done in financial crises, and create permanent swap lines with its major trading partners to provide euro liquidity in moment of stress. That would bolster confidence in the currency. It is improbable that the euro could displace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in anything other than the truly long term. Loading It could, however, increase its share of global reserves and transactions and share some of the dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' – the ability to borrow cheaply without any real limits, the haven status in a crisis, the ability, if they ever transpired, to run trade deficits without any fear of a balance of payments crisis, and, above all, the enhanced geopolitical authority the EU has always sought. European leaders have recognised the window of opportunity opened by America's self-destructive trade policies – it's been a growing topic of conversation in Europe since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement – but have also acknowledged the complexities and obstacles to taking advantage of it. Still, small but important steps could be taken, with eurobond issuance at the forefront and, with the EU members committed to ramping up their defence spending in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this could be an instance where, thanks to Trump and Vladimir Putin, opportunity and need start to converge.


7NEWS
12 hours ago
- 7NEWS
Gunman kills 10 in attack on Austrian school before taking his own life
A former student killed 10 people and himself at a secondary school in Austria's second city, Graz, on Tuesday in the worst school shooting in Austria's modern history. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said six of those killed at the school were female and three were male. Graz hospital later confirmed the death of a 10th person. Karner said another dozen people had been injured but gave no further details about the victims. Austrian media said most were pupils. Police said they believed the 21-year-old Austrian shooter, who was found dead in a bathroom, had been operating alone when he entered the school with two guns and opened fire. His motive remained unclear. Chancellor Christian Stocker called the shooting a 'dark day in the history of our country'. 'There are no words for the pain and grief that we all - all of Austria - are feeling right now.' Stocker travelled to Graz where, at a press conference alongside officials including Karner, he announced three days of national mourning. A minute's silence was set for 10am (0800 GMT) on Wednesday. The Kronen-Zeitung newspaper said police had found a farewell note from the shooter at his home. The paper did not say what it contained and police were not immediately available to comment. More than 300 police were called in after shots were heard around 10 a.m. at the school, for pupils of 15 and above. Ambulances also arrived within minutes as the premises were cordoned off. The Salzburger Nachrichten newspaper said in an unconfirmed report that the suspect, armed with a pistol and a shotgun, had opened fire on pupils in two classrooms, one of which had once been his own. It said he had been a victim of bullying. Police said investigations into a motive were continuing. Julia Ebner, an extremism expert at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue think-tank, said the incident appeared to be the worst school shooting in Austria's post-war history. Foreign leaders including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed shock. Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 people, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project. Four people were killed and 22 injured when a convicted jihadist went on a shooting spree in the centre of Vienna in 2020. In November 1997, a 36-year-old mechanic shot dead six people in the town of Mauterndorf before killing himself. If you need help in a crisis, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.