How Modi govt mastered art of ideology and balance of power

Hindustan Times

17 hours ago

On June 9, 2024, Narendra Modi took oath in the forecourt of the imposing Rashtrapati Bhavan for the third time as Prime Minister. The grand ceremony, marking the return of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance to power, was held under the shadow of the BJP's diminished majority. For the first time since 2014, when it came to power at the centre with a brute majority, the BJP's numbers had fallen short of the half-way mark, and it had to rely on coalition partners to keep its juggernaut rolling.
The election of 2024 was as much a story of the BJP's decline as it was of the resurgence of the opposition and the comeback of coalitions.
If it felt vanquished, having shrunk from 303 to 240 in the 543 member Lok Sabha, the BJP didn't show it; instead, riding on support from allies, the Telegu Desam Party, the Janata Dal United and a cluster of smaller parties, it set about fulfilling its agenda.
Soon after the oath ceremony, PM Modi put out a statement on X, '...I look forward to serving 140 crore Indians and working with the Council of Ministers to take India to new heights of progress.'
The third term of the NDA began with the sceptics and its opponents alluding to the coalition compulsions and suggesting that given their history of changing partners, the allies could rock the boat sooner than later. The TDP had walked out of the NDA in 2018, citing the delay in granting special status to the Andhra Pradesh and the JDU broke ties with the BJP in 2013 and 2022.
But as it completes one year in office, (and its 11th since 2014), the BJP has not only kept its friends close, but by deputing opposition lawmakers as India's ambassadors post Operation Sindoor, defanged the critics to a considerable extent. With the passage of contentious bills such as the one to amend the Waqf Board, it has also proved that its numerical strength (or the lack of it) in Parliament is not an impediment to carrying out its ideological agenda.
Walking the tight rope of politics and coalition
Although the BJP always referred to its government as a coalition of partners, in 2014 and 2019 it did not require support from other parties to form government. That changed in 2024, when the BJP won just 240 out of the 543 seats and was short of the halfway mark of 272. It had to rely on partners and the NDA with a tally of 293 staked claim to form the government.
Party leaders concede that the coalition now is significantly different as the BJP has to ensure that its work goes on, while also ensuring that the impression is not that it is going an extra mile to appease alliance partners.
Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, the chairman of the BJP's good governance cell said the perception that the BJP must adhere to coalition compulsions is wrong simply because there is no real disagreement.
'The harmony between the allies is remarkable. The partners know that they require each other, therefore, nobody is trying to call the shots, and the BJP too is in no mood to cede to the unreasonable demands of the partners. This harmony was not witnessed during the tenure of previous alliance governments,' he added.
While powerful allies influenced policy in the decade-long tenure of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance , the NDA under Atal Bihari Vajpayee too had to abide by the 'coalition dharma'. In 2000, Vajpayee, the PM had to travel to West Bengal to placate an angry ally, Mamata Banerjee, then the railway minister, after she opposed the government's decision to shut down sick public-sector units in the state.
'That has changed...the allies now are on the same page and if they have concerns, these are ironed out behind closed doors. The allies realise they need the BJP just as much as the BJP needs them... The union government has been generous in supporting infrastructure and development projects in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar,' said a senior party leader and functionary, speaking on condition of anonymity.
In the annual budget Bihar was allocated projects worth ₹60,000 crore while Andhra is expected to get a similar amount for key projects such as Polavaram and the new capital in Amaravati.
The allies in turn have supported contentious moves such as the Waqf amendment law and the bid to synchronise general elections with state polls, popularly called One Nation, One Election.
Meanwhile, the BJP has done enough in subsequent elections to indicate that 2024 may have just been a blip.
For instance, it bucked anti-incumbency to win assembly elections in Haryana and then, won a landslide victory in Maharashtra with its allies (the NCP and the Shiv Sena, although the BJP won the most seats and had the best strike rate).
'This was because people realised the benefits of allowing continuity of governance. The party also focused on strategising to win elections by invigorating the cadre at the booth level and calling out the opposition's narrative that sought to portray the BJP as anti-reservation,' said the leader quoted above.
The party's ability to navigate choppy waters without creating controversy and taking politically expedient decisions was also noteworthy. 'No government removes its own chief minister... President's Rule was imposed in Manipur when it became clear that the situation on the ground demanded such a step. A state president was also removed to placate an ally,' the leader said.
In March, the BJP replaced K Annamalai as the state unit president of Tamil Nadu, to pave the way for the return of the AIADMK into the NDA fold. Acrimony between Annamalai, a former IPS officer and the AIADMK, one of the BJP's earliest allies, was the main reason for the regional party's exit from the coalition in 2023.
In February, following Biren Singh's resignation as CM, President's Rule was imposed in Manipur, where ethnic violence between the Meitei community and Kuki-Zo tribes in 2023 resulted in over 250 deaths and displacement.
Continuity in policy making
Social schemes such as subsidised housing, food and healthcare that became the pivot of the NDA's politics and policy since 2014 remained the focal point in the year that went by. In the first cabinet meeting on June 10, a plan to build 30 million houses for the rural and urban poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana was sanctioned and ₹20,000 crore was set aside for disbursal to about 93 million farmers. The message was clear: allies or not, the BJP would continue to focus on welfarism.
The BJP continued to flaunt its social welfare credentials and commitment to ensuring that the benefits of government schemes reach the 'last man in the queue', a concept called 'Antyodaya', preached by party's ideological father Deen Dayal Upadhyaya.
The party deftly used Antyodaya to justify the government's decision to conduct caste enumeration along with the decadal census. In May, the cabinet committee on political affairs gave its consent to caste census, a key demand of the opposition and the BJP's own allies, the JDU and the Lok Jan Shakti Party. While the opposition hurried to claim credit for the announcement that came ahead of the Bihar polls later this year; the government claimed the count will help plan better for the marginalised. Addressing the CMs of NDA ruled states on May 25, PM Modi said it will be an exercise that is a step towards bringing the marginalised into the mainstream.
Issues of ideological commitment were not sidestepped either. The opposition's strong resistance notwithstanding, the government was successful in getting Parliament's nod for the passage of the Waqf (Amendment) Bill. The BJP claimed the amendment was an example of balancing ideology with reform.
'The amendment freed Waqf properties from being run as fiefdoms. It sought to ensure the welfare of women and the poor, but it was painted by the opposition and those with vested interests as an anti-Muslim decision,' said the leader quoted above. The matter is now being examined by the Supreme Court.
Multiple party leaders and said the government's focus on manufacturing and indigenisation, in addition to the thrust on infrastructure, has been a game-changer that has helped the BJP expand its foothold and consolidate its gains.
'There was a time when a mere reference to nuclear energy elicited sharp reactions...today other countries including France want to work together with us on developing small modular nuclear reactors. Our prowess in defence production is being acknowledged, take BrahMos (missile), there are countries in South Asia that are now looking at India to buy...' said a second functionary in the government.
After doing business with the Philippines, India is now negotiating a deal with Vietnam for the sale of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.
'The thrust to become AtmaNirbhar (self-reliant) has been a major shift in policy making. We are an attractive investment destination, we are a lucrative market, and we are also manufacturers and producers...,' the second functionary said.
Sahasrabuddhe said in addition to transformative initiatives in Indian Railways, defense production, and other sectors, the new criminal laws with more indigenous content (Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita 2023, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita 2023, and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam 2023 that replaced British-era laws) have been seamlessly brought into force, and new trade deals have been signed, all of which have accelerated the India growth story.
And it is for this reason the party wins popular vote, he said, adding that it is time to retire the impression that the BJP is solely election winning machine; its focus is actually on governance, he added. 'First, people have immense confidence in the PM. Secondly, development and welfare schemes are rolled-out with the commitment to ensure saturation. Under PM Modi, this government has mastered the art of implementation. Thirdly, the party is engaging with the people in a more substantive manner,' he said.
Diplomacy and trade
After PM Modi in his address to the nation asserted that 'terror and talks cannot go together' and indicated that there will be no rethink on putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, the party and the government proclaimed that it was time to accept the new normal.
Seven delegations of 50 lawmakers and former ministers from across the political spectrum and former diplomats were sent to 33 countries to shine the spotlight on the necessity and need for India's new counter-terrorism doctrine.
'Diplomacy is no longer left to just diplomats. The PM on his visits abroad, often tells the diaspora to leverage the soft power of diplomacy and become India's ambassadors...The decision to send opposition lawmakers was a masterstroke to show how democracy is thriving in India. And we are getting a positive response from countries about Operation Sindoor,' said the second functionary quoted above.
The functionary said efforts to revisit the IWT that lays down the water sharing contours between India and Pakistan have been made for decades owing to changes in the climate as well as demography, but it is for the first time that India leveraged its position to use the treaty along with the military strikes to signal its 'seriousness about national security'.
Former Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar said sending the delegations has conveyed to the world India's zero tolerance to terror policy.
Referring to the April 22 terror attack that killed 26 civilians, as one that was traumatic for the country, he said the response of operation Sindoor from the 7 to the 10th of May was a remarkable success. '…Both on the 7th morning when Indian missiles were able to demolish and annihilate nine of the terrorist hideouts and strongholds both in the heart of Pakistan, as well as in PoK and then on the 10th morning, when Indian weaponry was able to attack 13 airfields of Pakistan and make them completely unserviceable. So, while on the 22nd, it was a very traumatic experience for the country, the manner in which the defence forces acquitted themselves so creditably that gave so much satisfaction to people.'
He also credited PM Modi's two visits to the United States, his visit to France and Russia as measures that helped build bilateral ties.
'PM Modi's two visits to the United States, one last year in the term of President Joe Biden for attending the Quad Summit and the second in February this year within a month of President Trump taking over advanced the cause of India-US partnership and helped to strengthen the relationship in the area of trade, defence, geopolitical convergences,'he said.
Modi' two visits to Russia and one to Ukraine, sent out the message that India acted as a bridge between the east and the west.
The 'hiccups' that India faced in diplomacy, Sajjanhar said, 'was the unreliability and uncertainty' introduced by President Donald Trump in India-US relations.
'We will have to give a rethink on the relationship as we go forward. Of course, the United States will continue to be the most consequential and the most significant partner for India as far as defence, trade, technology, and geopolitics is concerned, but the level of trust between the two countries has been shaken,' he said. His reference comes in the wake of Trump's effort to take credit for the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, and the hard bargain his administration has been attempting to drive on the trade front.
On the trade and economic front, the government claims credit for policies that have catapulted India to the position of fourth largest economy in the world (which it will achieve at the end of the current fiscal).
On May 24, BVR Subrahmanyam the CEO, of the federal think tank, NITI Aayog said, 'India is at a turning point.... it is at a take off stage... where it can grow very fast like many other countries in the world.'
India's GDP is estimated to grow by 6.5% in FY 2024-25, (which is lower than the 9.2% in FY 2023-24) but the government is upbeat over several factors, including retail inflation being at 4.6% in 2024-25, which is lower than 5.4% in 2023-24.
But while India remains the fastest growing economy in the world, geopolitical disruptions (such as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine) and the uncertainty in the global economy engendered by Trump's retaliatory tariffs pose challenges.
The government is likely to be concerned about these, but a year after returning to power after the most competitive national elections since 2009, the BJP will take heart from its political and ideological successes over the past 12 months.