Paytm stock rallies 122% in one year but still 53% below issue price. Can it reclaim its IPO glory?
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Can Paytm reclaim its IPO highs?
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Shares of fintech major Paytm (One 97 Communications) have surged 122% over the past 12 months, driven by sustained bullish momentum and improving investor sentiment. Despite the strong recovery, the stock still trades 53% below its IPO issue price of Rs 2,150 – raising the question: Can Paytm reclaim its IPO-era highs?Currently hovering around Rs 1,018, the stock has shown signs of a technical breakout, supported by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows (HH–HL) on the charts. Technical analysts believe the upcoming June quarter results, due today, July 22, could be a key trigger for further upside.Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, said Paytm is approaching a crucial resistance zone of Rs 1,020–1,030, where it had faced sharp selling pressure in December 2024. 'The stock has been consistently forming a higher highs–higher lows (HH–HL) structure, which indicates a sustained uptrend,' he noted.He advised existing holders to maintain a stop-loss at Rs 980 and continue holding, provided the stock sustains above the breakout zone with supportive volumes. 'Traders should adopt a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the earnings event.'Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, said Paytm is showing strong bullish momentum after a consolidation phase. 'There is a Cup and Handle pattern on the weekly chart and an Inverted Head and Shoulders on the monthly — both are bullish continuation setups that suggest potential for a move toward Rs 1,700,' he said.He also highlighted the stock's strength across timeframes: 'Paytm is comfortably trading above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, and the RSI at 65.86 is trending upwards.' For short-term traders, Matalia suggests using Rs 980 as support and Rs 940 as a stop-loss. A breakout above Rs 1,050 could offer momentum-based entry opportunities, he added. Long-term investors can hold or accumulate more as long as the stock sustains above Rs 950.Brokerages expect Paytm to report its first-ever profit in Q1FY26, with projected PAT exceeding Rs 18.9 crore — compared to a net loss in the same quarter last year. Revenue from operations is expected to rise 27% YoY, driven by growth in payments and financial services.YES Securities and JM Financial believe a strong recovery in loan disbursals and tighter control over indirect expenses could support profitability. However, margins may remain under pressure due to rising payment processing costs and the absence of UPI incentives.While the recent rally reflects improving fundamentals and growing investor confidence, analysts remain cautious. 'Reclaiming the IPO price of Rs 2,150 will require sustained earnings delivery, clarity on regulatory concerns, and expansion in lending partnerships,' said a fund manager at a domestic mutual fund.For now, momentum is on Paytm's side. But whether it can return to its IPO-era glory will depend on the company's ability to turn early profitability into durable growth—and rebuild trust with long-term investors.: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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