Erica Stanford resets story but Govt faces challenging decisions ahead
For such a major change, it hasn't been all that terribly received. There has been criticism from some teachers and Labour about the scale and direction of reform, but not much about the need for change of some kind.
The cherry on top for Stanford will have been critics of the reforms, including Labour, focusing on the short consultation time (it is probably too short), only for emails to show that Labour's education spokeswoman Willow-Jean Prime ignored and then rebuffed efforts from Stanford to consult her on the changes.
Act leader David Seymour said he'd have sacked Prime over the cock-up. That's taking it a bit far but the stuff-up embarrasses her and Labour. Not least because it has echoes of the Michael Wood scandal, which also involved a slew of ignored correspondence.
Stanford's week was only undone by revelations a new maths textbook is full of errors. Embarrassing – although it's not uncommon for first editions to be sent out with a sheet of errata.
The right likes to think the politics of education are very fluid. During Jacinda Ardern's first term, when asked whether there were any big political trends the media were missing, a senior politician then in Opposition answered that the right's increasing popularity on education was commonly overlooked.
They slotted this into the fairly classic right-wing thinking, which pits the left as champions of equality against the right as champions of aspiration. This politician reckoned Labour's proximity to teachers' unions and attachment to equal outcomes were frustrating parents who wanted more aspiration. These parents were becoming particularly concerned as the sluggish post-GFC recovery and soaring house prices meant education was the last great hope for their children's social mobility.
Rising private school fees mean fewer families can opt out of the state system, making them increasingly invested in its ability to get their children ahead. Simon Bridges, first as National leader and later as finance spokesman, was fond of needling Labour over former Prime Minister Norman Kirk's famous (and misquoted) dictum that everyone needed 'somewhere to live, someone to love, somewhere to work and something to hope for'. He reckoned that in the 21st century, voters wanted more: an education that could get their kids a spot at a foreign university, for example.
Like most political theories, the empirical evidence for this one is patchy. The Ipsos Issues monitor, which polls on which party is trusted most on certain issues, shows Labour leading month after month on the issue of education under the last Government, with National only supplanting Labour in late 2023, about the time Ipsos found voters had lost faith in Labour over just about anything. They held that lead in early 2024 but lost it by the end of the year.
If the Government is feeling good about education, it is feeling anxious about energy.
The Government is sitting on a report from Frontier Economics into energy market reform, which was delivered to ministers earlier this year.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford visit Botany Downs Secondary College. Photo / Dean Purcell
There's some disquiet about the report itself. It was commissioned last year by Energy Minister at the time, Simeon Brown, and seems to have been set up to investigate something along the lines of the structural separation of the gentailers, which has long been held up as the silver-bullet reform to boost generation and reduce prices.
Question one of the reforms' terms of reference was pretty obvious: 'How does business ownership, structure or design of markets affect incentives or opportunities to invest in generation, storage, transmission and distribution?'
Strangely for the Government, at least part of what is included in the report seems to hark back to an old Contact Energy idea to place all the gentailers' thermal (fossil fuel) generation assets into a single entity, which would be heavily regulated by the Government in terms of the prices it could charge to turn that generation on. As fossil-fuel generation costs are one of the most important inputs into overall power prices – if not the most important – the reform would ideally bring prices down while encouraging investment in renewable generation.
The problem is the Government remains quite divided on the report. There's frustration at the fact Frontier recently did economics work on behalf of the merger of Contact Energy and Manawa. There's also a feeling the report itself is based on flawed assumptions.
NZ First is clearly keen on a ThermalCo idea; National's position is less sure, but probably favours something closer to the status quo. Unusually for a Prime Minister fond of delegating, Christopher Luxon seems unafraid of getting his hands dirty in the policy area of energy. It's also an area where his office is stacked with expertise: policy adviser Matt Burgess has written about energy economics at the NZ Initiative; policy director Joe Ascroft has a PhD in energy economics; and chief of staff Cameron Burrows came to Luxon's office after heading up the Electricity Retailers Association.
This means that of all policy areas, this is one in which the ninth floor is not afraid to intervene. There is a sense, however, that the balance of thinking in the PM's office is that the problems in the energy sector can be mainly blamed on the uncertainty unleashed by the oil and gas exploration ban, indecision over the Tiwai smelter's future, Labour's 100% renewable target and Lake Onslow.
That's all true - all of those problems contributed to the dearth of net new generation built in recent times, but not all the sector's problems began under Labour, and undoing them will not axiomatically mean a return to cheap energy. The current thinking is that there's probably not a lot of gas out there to be found - there certainly wasn't the last time a National Government went looking.
The messiness inside the Government was matched by the Opposition this week with Labour Leader Chris Hipkins seeming to forget or misspeak his party's position on the oil and gas exploration ban on Tuesday morning. The position is, and has been for more than a year, that Labour would re-ban exploration, but for some reason, Hipkins was unable to articulate that when pressed on Tuesday morning. He was far clearer on Wednesday and again on Friday: the ban is back under Labour.
In the backdrop to all of this is a far more significant problem: where New Zealand stands on the recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Government continues to take a watching brief on the issue but the cascade of nations – most recently France, Britain and Canada – saying they will recognise a Palestinian state when the UN General Assembly meets in September, has put pressure on the Government to move.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The Government's position has been that New Zealand's long-standing support for a two-state solution means recognition of a Palestinian state is a matter of 'when'. In their view, New Zealand will recognise a Palestinian state … just not now.
It's a convenient position, because it tries to capture the diplomatic upside of recognition without grappling with the downside, which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney got a taste of last month when US President Donald Trump posted to social media that Canada's upcoming recognition of Palestinian statehood would 'make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them'.
New Zealand's fudge was never going to be tenable forever – if it ever was at all. As Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong recently warned, there is now a risk 'there will be no Palestine left to recognise'.
The position is deeply challenging for the Government. Act is probably the most pro-Israel party in Government, its position best summed up by Simon Court's contribution to a parliamentary debate last month saying that recognising a Palestinian state would be viewed as 'a reward for acts of terrorism' committed by Hamas against Israel.
National has powerful MPs who tend to be more pro-Israel than not, including Chris Bishop and Nicola Wills, but the party is also full of new backbenchers, who are feeling the full force of the public campaign in support of recognition from grassroots campaigns in their electorates. It probably helps that the campaign comes as National's polling dip puts those MPs' futures in doubt.
NZ First's position is less clear. Foreign Minister Winston Peters has been a staunch supporter of Israel in the past. He too has become more critical as Israel's devastating and deadly campaign in Gaza has taken hold.
New Zealand doesn't want to be among the very last to recognise a Palestinian state – and it very well may be if, as expected, Australia moves towards recognition in the next few weeks.
There's precious little upside for the Government.
All the Government's genuflection, even offering an FBI outpost to the Trump administration, couldn't save it from a 15% tariff – and that coming the very same week China lashed out at New Zealand for providing a platform for FBI Director Kash Patel to allege one of the key reasons for the new outpost was countering China.
Since Donald Trump's first election, economists and trade watchers have warned that a deterioration in the boring but stable rules-based order was a world in which New Zealand could not succeed. Our messy winter, betrayed by one trading partner while annoying another, is proof that hypothesis was sadly correct.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NZ Herald
29 minutes ago
- NZ Herald
Letters: We should hang our heads in shame at the state of Auckland's CBD
Complex problems can take time to solve but we could be exploring immediate, relatively cheap short-term options. Figuratively speaking, one or two fewer road speedbumps would go a long way towards restoring a sense of civic pride and economic wellbeing. Perhaps it is time for the famed and under-utilised creatives of New Zealand to play a part. Vacant shop windows could be brimming with hired paintings and sculptures. Ugly external walls – think globally, think Italy and Singapore – could be plant-adorned hanging gardens. Street art could be part of the mix. Think nooks of pavement planters – Dublin-style multi-layered planters of riotously coloured cascading blooms. Think No 8 wire mentality! But also think of putting it out there to the Auckland community – some of whom may want to financially contribute to this essential CBD recovery. And we are the ratepayers – let's insist to our council through the upcoming elections that it has to do better. Angela Yatri, Oratia. Luxon's turnaround job Warren Cossey's letter (August 6) defending Christopher Luxon from the criticism of him and his coalition is timely, given that the previous Government spent six years destroying the economy and causing social division that has only worsened. During those six years we were constantly told to be kind to one another as if we were children in need of some sort of patronising reminder on how to be an adult. Then, when Labour ministers were asked about particular pressing issues, such as migrant exploitation and ram raids, a lot of the time their inevitable response was a rather lame, 'we're looking into it'. At least Luxon and his team appear to be far more forthright and proactive in what they are doing rather than acting like a possum caught in the headlights. Bernard Walker, Mt Maunganui. Razor needs to find innovation Not long ago when the scribes got together to pick their top 15 rugby players for the year, it was dominated by All Blacks. If they were to pick a squad this year, not many All Blacks would be in the running. Ardie Savea and Tamaiti Williams might get a look-in for the forwards and maybe Cam Roigard and Will Jordan in the backs. The All Blacks have certainly gone backwards, and our new coach is struggling to improve the situation. Razor needs to be a bit more innovative like Rassie if he is going to improve. The next few weeks will show if he is on the right track. Jock MacVicar, Hauraki. Tunnels to nowhere? It must be particularly painful and galling for our older residents who have been waiting for years for urgent surgery to observe how $5.5 billion of public money has been squandered on the rail tunnels to nowhere? It is patently obvious that this emerald-plated project has had no independent fiscal scrutiny or cost-benefit analysis. This has allowed a phalanx of assorted consultants and contractors to have a field day paid from the public purse. The pigs-in-the-trough syndrome still appears to be alive and well in Aotearoa. For example, how much has been paid to Mana Whenua in consultancy and other fees? Bruce Tubb, Devonport. Alternative to butter Unlike Wendy Galloway (letters, August 3), I have no qualms about using an alternative to butter to make a white sauce. Indeed, my granddaughter once announced, to her mother's chagrin, that I made the best cheese sauce in the world. Mind you, she was only 4, and hasn't repeated that in the 20 years since, so maybe her palate has become more refined. Or perhaps she was simply currying favour. Peter Jackson, Kaitaia. Not all doom and gloom What a balanced and thoughtful piece by Liam Dann (August 3). In particular it was interesting to learn that Paul Bloxham, HSBC Australia-New Zealand chief economist, while negative about Australian growth, is one of the most positive economists about New Zealand growth. As we continue to consider our economic, political, social, cultural and environmental future, we always need to be mindful of the way in which social and other media distorts the picture of where we are heading. Dann's piece shows the important role of the media in political reporting. As Sir Geoffrey Palmer wrote, 'The media plays a vital role in sending communications from the governors to the governed.' Glennys Adams, Oneroa.
NZ Herald
29 minutes ago
- NZ Herald
Heather du Plessis-Allan: Stanford is a standout in a Government struggling to turn things around
Erica Stanford is a standout for taking what we could all see was broken, fixing it at pace, boldly. Photo / Dean Purcell THE FACTS It feels like Erica Stanford can't do anything wrong at the moment. She's banned phones in schools, reintroduced structured learning, brought back single-cell classrooms and now – in her boldest move yet – announced she's scrapping the failed project NCEA. That she's doing all of the above is
NZ Herald
29 minutes ago
- NZ Herald
Simon Bridges is right, Auckland's economic blues require special attention
Bridges' public call for fresh government policies – including more fiscal stimulus – was remarkable coming from a former leader of the National Party. It was a sign of some desperation. Bridges is head of the Auckland Business Chamber and is acutely aware of how bad things are looking for many retailers and hospitality businesses in the city. He has a different hat on these days, of course, and it is his job to lobby for Auckland business, but anybody who has spent time in downtown Auckland recently can see he's not exaggerating the problem. Let's face it, Auckland's CBD is a dismal place to be in the rain-sodden winter of 2025. Around the country, I can hear the tiny violins playing. New Zealand's largest city is often perceived as a brash and arrogant place, but with nearly a third of the country's total population within its regional boundaries, it's a bit hard to ignore. Politicians ignore it at their peril – as Labour found out after putting the city through a long and unpopular extended lockdown. I know the long-awaited Central Rail Link is supposed to turn things around, and I see the Prime Minister went for an advance spin on it last week. It looks great, and I look forward to it opening. But we haven't got a date yet, and it may well be later next year before it opens to the public. That means potentially another winter of waiting for struggling inner-city retailers. And perhaps a bigger worry than the timing is the risk that, if it opens in anything like the current CBD malaise, people will come to the city once, be disappointed by what they see and won't come back again. The same issues apply to SkyCity's long-awaited New Zealand International Convention Centre, and as Bridges points out, relying on these two developments to fix Auckland's woes won't be enough. But the central Government doesn't have a lot of money. So what to do? Bridges' suggestion of corporate tax cuts is fine in theory. But I don't think we can afford fiscal stimulus on that scale right now. And it's also not clear that it is needed right across the country. If you just looked at the economy in aggregate, it is flat but recovering – not too bad. I was pleasantly surprised to see the official unemployment rate land better than expected at 5.2% this week. My gut feeling was that it would be worse than that. When I saw the Auckland number, it all made sense. Auckland's unemployment rate has hit 6.1%. Of course, if you're taking your anecdotal evidence from business people in Auckland, you'd assume the economic recovery has stalled. For better or for worse, Auckland's economy is driven by population growth and its service sector. It thrives on rising numbers of tourists and immigrants (international and from around New Zealand). The population growth drives property and construction. Building booms and property prices rise. Confident in the extra zeros on their house prices, Aucklanders go out and spend. The shops, bars and restaurants thrive, and Auckland is a fun place to be. That creates jobs and opportunities and attracts more tourists and more immigrants. That circle of economic growth has completely broken down. Meanwhile, in Otago, the June quarter data showed the unemployment rate had dropped to 2.9%. Christchurch is also, by all accounts, humming along right now. I've written before about the stark regional divide that appears to be opening up as the returns from high export commodity prices bolster rural regions and the cities that support them. It doesn't seem like a great idea to be stimulating flush southern economies with either fiscal or monetary stimulus right now. Economists are currently making the case for one or two more cuts to the Official Cash Rate (OCR). If the Reserve Bank just looked at the South Island, it might not see a need to cut again at all. If it just looked at Auckland and Wellington, it might see a need to cut much further. But monetary policy doesn't work like that. That's where fiscal policy comes in. I think any fresh spending on Auckland would need to be very well-targeted. The Government doesn't have spare billions, but it might be able to find spare millions for projects that could make an outsize difference to the grim Auckland mood. We have a trifecta of dead buildings in the crucial mid-town intersection around Aotea Square. The remains of the St James Theatre have looked like a demolition site for years. Across the road, the old Smith & Caughey building is now empty and just up Queen St, the Sky World Indoor Entertainment is increasingly empty and run-down. There are plans in place for all of these buildings (the Government has already allocated funds for restoring the St James), but no signs of anything happening quickly. It might be time for the Government to look at getting involved – either with cash, some of that fast-track regulatory magic it has sprinkled around the regions (and, to be fair, on plans for Port of Auckland expansion). Bringing these buildings back to life would deliver a much-needed boost to a key area of the central city. It would also double as fiscal stimulus for Auckland's construction sector, keeping skilled workers employed while we wait for the broader economic cycle to turn. And perhaps most importantly, they'd deliver a morale boost, providing another reason to believe that Auckland can and will find its mojo again. I'm not necessarily wedded to any of these ideas; there might be better ones. Let's hear them. The point that Bridges is making is that things are now so grim that we can't afford to just wait for a recovery that might still be another year away. By then, it might be too late. Liam Dann is business editor at large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, as well as presenting and producing videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
