Trade talks will continue to loom large in a big week ahead for Mag 7 earnings and jobs data

CNBC

25-04-2025

More than three weeks after the calamitous April 2 "reciprocal tariffs" announcement threw the stock market into chaos, investors are trying to make sense of a world in which higher tariffs are likely here to stay — and one in which the U.S. may have lost its edge. Stocks have been stuck in a wide trading range since the start of the month. While the S & P 500 has risen from its recent lows, when it briefly entered a bear market on April 7, the market benchmark has failed to break through key resistance levels as investors await the outcome of the Trump administration's trade negotiations with the rest of the world. In reaction, investors are bolstering their portfolio defenses, diversifying assets away from the U.S., adding to short-term Treasurys, stocking up on gold and seeking currency hedges amid fear that the risk for both the economy and the stock market is to the downside. One strategist worries that even a "mild recession" scenario could send the S & P 500 sharply lower, possibly to 3,700 . "You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, and once you start this, it's really difficult to go back," said Ayako Yoshioka, portfolio consulting director at Wealth Enhancement Group. "We will simply get to a new baseline, right? And I think a new baseline will incorporate probably a little bit more market volatility, because in the intermediate term, we still have this administration that has an agenda that is a little bit more nationalistic than prior administrations." .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 so far in 2025. Other long-term concerns are also weighing on investors. The "Sell America" attitude that appears to have taken hold with the drawdown in U.S. equities, as well as a slumping dollar and a bond market sell-off, combined have investors doubting the U.S. exceptionalism trade will hold in the future. Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, expects the weakening U.S. dollar coupled with U.S. stock market underperformance are "multi-year" trends reflecting a failure of faith in the U.S. Although, even here, Berezin admits that a global recession could drive investors into U.S. assets in the short term. The U.S. trade war with China also has the potential to embroil other nations, as tensions escalate. This week, Beijing warned it would retaliate against countries that cooperate with Washington in ways that compromise China's own interests. The Trump administration, which has imposed a 145% tariff on goods from China, rising to 245% on some imports, this week softened its aggressive tone. But China has denied claims that trade talks with the U.S. are underway. "I think negotiations are taking longer than the Trump administration initially thought, and I think it's because, again, China is not just important to us here in the United States, but it's important to many countries," Yoshioka said. "They're a large trading partner with many countries, Europe in particular. So, I think that that's why you're almost asking countries to pick a side, and it's difficult. I think it's a difficult situation for every country to think about." "That's really the lever that pulls everything, is where do things ultimately go with these trade talks?" said David Miller, investment chief at Catalyst Funds. "We'll see a lot of volatility around announcements in the meantime, but it's once we actually have that clear policy, that's what's going to, I think, guide where equity prices are likely to be." US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury That has investors battening down the hatches, expecting long-term volatility. Miller said he's sticking to what's "knowable" — stocks with competitive moats that can maintain growth and profit margins over the next decade — in order to weather the macroeconomic storm. Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, is recommending buying a little on weak days, and selling some on rallies, while diversifying into a mix of short-term bonds, utilities and consumer staples. He's also looking at currency ETFs such as the one tied to the safe haven Swiss franc . Stocks were on pace Friday to close out a winning week, but a losing month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently higher by 2.5% on the week. The S & P 500 was up by 4.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.6% in late trading. For the month, the 30-stock Dow was on track to lose 4.5%. The S & P 500 fell by more than 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite was a touch higher. Magnificent Seven earnings, macroeconomic data Next week will also bring the busiest stretch of the first-quarter earnings season, with more than 180 companies in the S & P 500 set to release results. Of those, 11 companies inn the Dow Industrials are expected to report, as well as four of the Magnificent Seven companies — Amazon , Apple , Meta Platforms and Microsoft . Earnings season has been solid. Of the 157 S & P 500 companies that HAVE reported thus far, 76% beat analyst expectations, according to FactSet data. The blended growth rate of 8% — incorporating both analyst estimates and results from corporations that have already reported — is better than the 7.2% analysts were expecting on March 31, according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters. More worryingly, analysts are taking down their expectations for the second quarter and the full year. The second-quarter growth rate has fallen to 6.6%, down from 9.2% at the start of the quarter, according to Butters. Investors may have to count less on the Magnificent Seven companies in the future too. While the companies are still expected to project strong earnings growth of 17% in 2025, they are unlikely to outstrip the rest of the market as much as they have in the past. The 493 other S & P 500 companies are expected to post double-digit earnings growth next calendar year, catching up to the megacap leadership. Finally, Wall Street will pay close attention to the jobs data next week, which could start to show signs the labor market is slowing. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday are projected to show the U.S. added 150,000 jobs in April, down from 209,000 previously, according to FactSet data. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — is expected to show the annual rate of inflation eased to 2.2% in March from 2.5% in February. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday April 28 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (April) Earnings: Universal Health Services , Domino's Pizza Tuesday April 29 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (March) 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (February) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (February) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (April) 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (March) Earnings: Visa , Seagate Technology Holdings , Starbucks , Mondelez International , PPG Industries , First Solar , Extra Space Storage , Caesars Entertainment , Booking Holdings , Sysco , Corning , Sherwin-Williams , Altria Group , Kraft Heinz , Coca-Cola , American Tower , Pfizer , Regeneron Pharmaceuticals , Royal Caribbean Group , General Motors , United Parcel Service , Honeywell International , Hilton Worldwide , PayPal Wednesday April 30 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (April) 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q1) 8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price (Q1) 8:30 a.m. GDP first preliminary (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Chicago PMI (April) 10 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (March) 10 a.m. PCE Deflator (March) 10 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (March) 10 a.m. Personal Income (March) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales (March) Earnings: Prudential Financial , MGM Resorts International , Allstate , eBay , Qualcomm , Public Storage , Microsoft , Meta Platforms , Invitation Homes , Albemarle , Aflac , Hess , Yum! Brands , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Caterpillar , GE Healthcare Technologies , Stanley Black & Decker , Humana , Generac Holdings , Western Digital , Martin Marietta Materials , Automatic Data Processing Thursday May 1 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (04/19) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/26) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (April) 10 a.m. Construction Spending (March) 10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (April) Earnings: Apple , Motorola Solutions , Live Nation Entertainment , GoDaddy , Airbnb , Monolithic Power Systems , Amazon.com , Ingersoll Rand , DexCom , Kellanova , McDonald's , Howmet Aerospace , Hershey , Quanta Services , KKR & Co. , Eli Lilly & Co. , Estee Lauder Companies , Moderna , IDEXX Laboratories , CVS Health , Mastercard Friday May 2 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (April) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (April) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (April) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (April) 10 a.m. Durable Orders (March) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (March) Earnings: T. 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