Southwest Monsoon: Drought impact expected to be less intense

The Sun

12-06-2025

PUTRAJAYA: The Southwest Monsoon (MBD), which began on May 10 and is expected to last until September, is not likely to bring extreme dry weather, as the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern remains in a neutral phase, said National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) director-general Datuk Abdul Halim Hamzah.
He said that as a result, the impact of droughts typically associated with MBD is expected to be less severe this year compared to last year.
'Although the MBD typically brings drier weather to Peninsular Malaysia, the neutral ENSO status means that severe droughts, often associated with El Niño, are less likely to occur.
'In short, the neutral status of ENSO means we can expect more 'normal' monsoon without the extreme effects of El Niño or La Niña, which is expected to continue until October,' he said today during an engagement session with the media regarding the government's preparations for MBD, here.
ENSO is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that oscillates between warmer (El Niño), cooler (La Niña), and neutral phases, which have significant impacts on global weather, including the monsoon seasons in Malaysia.
However, Abdul Halim noted that hot weather conditions can still pose health risks, lead to water supply shortages, forest and bushfires, as well as haze, adding that if prolonged, they may also affect agricultural yields.
He said the key characteristics of MBD include low rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak, more dry days across most states, and the formation of squall lines (clusters of active thunderstorm clouds that form over the sea and move inland) typically in the mornings along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and western Sabah.
'Local and transboundary haze incidents may also occur if forest fires are not brought under control,' he said, adding that NADMA, together with the Fire and Rescue Department (JBPM), Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Environment (DOE) and the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET Malaysia), is fully prepared in terms of logistics and manpower to face the impacts of the Southwest Monsoon.
On water resource management and hydrological drought (shortage of water in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, or groundwater), he said forecasts related to drought, including dam storage and river flow rates, indicate that most major dams and river water remain at normal levels with only the Malut Dam in Kedah is at alert status with a storage level of 37.6 per cent as of May 27.
'Tomorrow, we will hold a coordination meeting on cloud seeding operations in Kedah, specifically for the Bukit Malut Dam issue, as a proactive measure. We will not wait until the dam runs dry to carry out the operation,' he said.
He said JBPM had been appointed as the coordinating agency to handle complaints related to open burning to avoid overlapping actions and ensure swift and accurate responses, noting that in the first five months of this year, JBPM responded to 3,791 open burning cases, with the highest number of incidents recorded in five states: Kedah (547), Johor (468), Terengganu (384), Selangor (368), and Perak (357).
Abdul Halim said between Jan 1 and May 19, DOE identified 125 hotspots across Malaysia and investigated 2,391 open burning cases, issued 34 compounds, and brought 16 cases to court.
Meanwhile, MET Malaysia's deputy director-general of operations, Ambun Dindang, said the highest temperatures, between 36 and 37 degrees Celsius, are expected in July and August, with the northern region of Peninsular Malaysia and inland areas likely to experience hotter weather compared to most locations.
Established in 2015, NADMA is responsible for planning, coordinating, and implementing policies and strategies related to disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
The agency also serves as the country's central reference point for managing various types of disasters, including floods, haze, earthquakes, and pandemics, through close collaboration with multiple government agencies, local authorities, non-governmental organisations, and local communities.