Why Modi govt's caste census decision feels like déjà vu to Bihar

India Today

02-05-2025

In a masterstroke of political timing—just months before the Bihar assembly election—the Union government has decreed that the forthcoming decennial census will, for the first time since 1931, document every caste, beyond Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, the country.The ruling coalition in Bihar, led by Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the BJP, clearly hopes to blunt the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) caste-based mobilisation and defuse the PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) narrative that is thought to have unsettled the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.advertisementYet, in Bihar, where a 2022 state survey already established that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) together constitute around 63 per cent of the population, fresh fieldwork is unlikely to yield startling new figures. More tellingly, these communities' aspirations for a 65 per cent reservation cap were dashed when the Patna High Court struck down the state's quota expansion in June 2024.As the state heads for polls, one is left to wonder: will the national census genuinely change anything on the ground, creating social traction for the ruling alliance? Or is it simply a rerun of promises that founder beneath judicial scrutiny?
PRELUDE TO A CENSUSDelayed from 2021 by the Covid pandemic, the next census will at last ask every household to declare its caste. Union information and broadcasting minister Ashwini Vaishnaw described the decision as a pledge to 'social justice and transparency'.advertisementUnder the current affirmative action measures, OBCs occupy 27 per cent of the 50 per cent reservation quota. In Bihar, however, the irony is inescapable. The 2022 survey found OBCs at 27.12 per cent and EBCs at 36.01 per cent of the state's populace. Armed with those numbers, the state legislature voted in November 2023 to raise the reservation cap to 65 per cent, only to see the Patna High Court quash the measure and reaffirm the Supreme Court's 50 per cent ceiling.THE POLITICAL CALCULUSFor the BJP-JD(U) alliance, the caste census is being billed as a sweeping gesture of inclusion, a chance to cement their appeal among backward communities. Bihar's leaders have been quick to claim that this move vindicates their governance. Yet, it will be difficult to deny Congress leader Rahul Gandhi some credit, having launched a sustained campaign for a nationwide caste census over the past two years.Yet beneath the triumphant rhetoric lies a more pointed strategy: by adopting the caste count pre-emptively, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) deprives the Opposition of its most potent critique. RJD and Congress figures have long accused the government of sidelining OBC and EBC interests—a charge NDA leaders hope will ring hollow once the administration officially embraces comprehensive caste enumeration. The jury is still out, though.advertisementHEARTLAND DISTRUSTBihar's earlier experiment with caste data serves as a cautionary parable. The 2022 survey was intended to underpin a fairer reservation regime, prompting impassioned debates and the passage of the Reservation Amendment Bill—allocating 18 per cent of seats to OBCs and 25 per cent to EBCs. Yet in June 2024, the high court struck down those amendments as 'ultra vires'—a verdict that made both the Opposition and ruling alliances recalibrate their strategies.For many backward class voters, the episode deepened a familiar mistrust: data may be collected and laws passed, but courts—or bureaucratic inertia—can still derail their quest for representation. Unless the forthcoming census is bolstered by constitutional reform or favourable judicial rulings, it may merely echo past disappointments.As the political theatre unfolds, Bihar's voters watch tentatively. Will the census translate into swift policy adjustments—additional quotas, redrawn constituencies or enhanced welfare projects? Or will it join the Bihar survey in gathering dust on bureaucratic shelves?Analysts caution that enumeration alone is unlikely to sway loyalties. With memories of the scuppered quota law still vivid, communities will demand more than statistics: they will insist on iron-clad legislation, rapid rollout of benefits and unequivocal guarantees of change.advertisementBEYOND THE BALLOTWhile Bihar sits centre-stage, the census will reverberate nationwide. Detailed caste data will reignite debates over OBC quotas within the 50 per cent cap and may prompt calls to reassess reservation policies state by state. It will also guide future delimitation exercises, reshaping India's electoral map.In the short term, however, the caste census performs two key functions: it disarms a formidable Opposition critique and affords the ruling alliance a fresh narrative of inclusivity. Whether that narrative resonates—or dissolves into another refrain of unfulfilled promise—will hinge on the government's willingness to turn numbers into meaningful reform.Subscribe to India Today MagazineTune InMust Watch