Stock Tips: It's lithium, property, supermarkets and… water for the win
Jed Richards – Shaw and Partners
BUY
Cromwell Property Group (ASX:CMW)
Trades at a notable discount to its net asset backing, presenting a value opportunity for income-focused investors. Offers a strong quarterly dividend yield of about 7.6% and its portfolio includes office properties, primarily leased to government and listed tenants, which contribute about 68% of its gross income. Assets are held for long-term investment and generate stable rental cash flows. Cromwell combines reliable income with potential capital upside.
Duxton Water (ASX:D2O)
Trading at a discount to its net asset backing, offering a compelling entry point for income and value investors. It provides a dividend yield of 4.98%, paid semi-annually, with consistent growth. The company owns a diversified portfolio of permanent water entitlements across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. With drought conditions emerging in parts of South Australia and Victoria, demand for water is rising, supported by government buyback programs. Benefits from stable annuity-style income through long-term leases to agricultural users.
HOLD
Santos (ASX:STO)
Remains a solid energy holding with exposure to LNG and gas markets across Australia and Asia. The company is currently under a takeover proposal from a major international consortium, highlighting its strategic importance and potential value. While the offer is still under review and subject to due diligence and regulatory approval, it presents possible upside for shareholders. Santos continues to generate strong cash flow and maintains a stable outlook, making it a prudent hold.
BWP Trust (ASX:BWP)
Offers a solid, reliable yield supported by long-term leases to high-quality tenants, notably Bunnings Warehouse. This relationship provides consistent rental income and low vacancy risk. The trust holds a portfolio of well-located retail properties across Australia, with a focus on large-format retail. While growth may be modest, the income stability and defensive nature of its assets make BWP a prudent hold for investors seeking dependable returns in a low-volatility environment.
SELL
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)
Has performed well recently and now appears to be trading above fair value. We are locking in profits at this stage given limited near-term growth catalysts. While Origin remains a solid energy provider, its valuation looks stretched compared to peers. For investors seeking better value and income, AGL Energy offers a more attractive alternative, with stronger yield and improving fundamentals.
Technology One (ASX:TNE)
Has delivered strong share price increases, but now trades at a very high PE ratio – over 97 – making it one of the most expensive stocks on the ASX. Its dividend yield is low, under 1%, which limits income appeal. The company provides enterprise software solutions for government, education, and corporate clients, including financials, asset management, and HR systems. However, competition in cloud-based enterprise software is intensifying, and much of the growth appears priced in. I suggest locking in profits at current levels.
Chris Haynes – Equity Trustees
BUY
Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS)
One of the largest and most efficient producers of lithium globally, which is a key component in battery production. The lithium price has collapsed over the past 18 months due to excess supply. However, there are signs of supply reductions and a potential bottoming in the lithium price. PLS is well positioned to benefit from a recovery. High risk, but high potential return.
Coles Group (ASX:COL)
The new CEO has been executing effectively, with improving margins and solid revenue growth. COL has invested heavily in logistics and fulfilment over the past few years. These investment programs are nearing completion, and the full benefits are expected to flow through. This is a good time to invest in a well-known household name.
HOLD
Reliance Worldwide (ASX:RWC)
Designs, manufactures and distributes branded water flow and control products for the plumbing industry. The key revenue driver is US housing starts, which have been sluggish due to mortgage rates around 7%, making home buying prohibitive. Once the outlook for rates improves, the stock price is expected to move upward.
Lynas (ASX:LYC)
Produces rare earth minerals used in critical products such as magnets. Volumes and realised pricing have been strong, and the share price has performed well. LYC is in a strong position as a dominant supplier outside of China. The company has announced potential growth projects in Malaysia and Korea. While the stock trades at relatively high multiples, these projects offer upside potential. Some consolidation in the share price is warranted.
SELL
Charter Hall (ASX:CHC)
Manages and invests in office, retail, and industrial properties. The stock price has risen approximately 50% this calendar year, while the earnings outlook has only mildly improved. As a result, the price-to-earnings multiple is well above long-term averages. It's a good time to take profits.
Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX)
Owns, operates and develops toll roads globally. Its major investment in the French toll road APRR faces challenges, particularly due to a government that is somewhat hostile to corporate ownership of toll roads. The recent strength in the share price presents a good opportunity to take profits.
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