&w=3840&q=100)
Oil prices edge higher as markets watch supply risks and demand outlook
Brent crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.58 per cent, at $69.04 a barrel as of 1027 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 45 cents, or 0.68 per cent, to $67.02 a barrel.
At those levels, Brent was headed for a 1.1 per cent gain on the week, while WTI was little changed against last week's close.
The IEA on Friday said the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, with demand supported by peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power-generation.
Front-month September Brent contracts were trading at a $1.10 premium to October futures at 1027 GMT.
"Civilians, be they in the air or on the road, are showing a healthy willingness to travel," PVM analyst John Evans said in a note on Friday.
Prompt tightness notwithstanding, the IEA also boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while trimming its outlook for growth in demand, implying a market in surplus.
"OPEC+ will quickly and significantly turn up the oil tap. There is a threat of significant oversupply. In the short term, however, oil prices remain supported," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.
One other sign of robust prompt oil demand was the prospect of Saudi Arabia shipping about 51 million barrels of crude oil in August to China, the biggest such shipment in over two years.
Longer term, however, rival forecasting agency OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 to 2029 because of slowing Chinese demand, the group said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday.
Both benchmark futures contracts lost more than 2 per cent on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of Trump's evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand.
"Prices have recouped some of this decline after President Trump said he plans to make a 'major' statement on Russia on Monday. This could leave the market nervous over the potential for further sanctions on Russia," ING analysts wrote in a client note.
Trump has expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress on peace with Ukraine and Russia's intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
The European Commission is set to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of a new draft sanctions package.
(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hindu
2 minutes ago
- The Hindu
Trade uncertainties posing headwinds to global economic prospects: RBI bulletin
Multiple uncertainties emanating from the high tariffs to be imposed by the Trump administration in the U.S. poses considerable headwinds to global economic prospects, while underpricing of macroeconomic risk by financial markets remains a concern, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials have said in the July edition of the RBI Bulletin released on Wednesday. And amidst rising trade uncertainties and geo economic fragmentation, India has an opportunity to deepen its integration with global value chains by building more resilient trade partnerships, they said. 'As intense negotiations are underway for closing trade deals before the new import tariff rates kick in from August 1, 2025, the focus is back on U.S. trade policies and their spillover effects globally. Financial markets, however, seem to have taken trade policy uncertainties in their stride, possibly reflecting optimism on reaching trade deals that are less disruptive to the global economy,' the offiicials said in the article 'State of the Economy'. 'Even so, underpricing of macroeconomic risk by financial markets remains a concern. The average trade tariff rates are set to touch levels unseen since the 1930s. Moreover, risk of imposition of new high tariffs looms large for additional sectors,' they wrote in the article. Stating that the evolving pattern of global trade flows and supply chains were far from settled, they stated, 'These uncertainties pose considerable headwinds to global economic prospects.' Despite global uncertainties, the Indian economy remains largely resilient, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, they emphasised. 'Easing inflation, improving kharif season prospects, front-loading of government expenditure, targeted fiscal measures and congenial financial conditions for faster transmission of rate reductions should support aggregate demand in the economy, going forward,' they said. 'Amidst rising trade uncertainties and geo economic fragmentation, building more resilient trade partnerships presents a strategic opportunity for India to deepen its integration with global value chains,' they pointed out. In addition, measures to accelerate domestic investment in infrastructure and structural reforms aimed at improving competitiveness and productivity would build resilience while supporting the growth momentum, they mentioned. Meanwhile, the domestic economy headline inflation, as measured by YoY changes in the all-India consumer price index (CPI), declined to 2.1% in June 2025 (the lowest since January 2019) from 2.8% in May . The fall in headline inflation by 72 bps came from a favourable base effect of 133 bps, which more than offset a positive price momentum (m-o-m change) of 62 bps. 'For the first time since February 2019, food group registered a deflation of (-) 0.2% (YoY) in June as against an inflation of 1.5% in May. This was driven by a deflation within vegetables, pulses, and meat and fish sub-groups,' the officials said. Inflation in cereals, fruits, milk and products, oils and fats, sugar and confectionery, and prepared meals moderated while that in eggs edged up. Core inflation inched up to 4.4% in June 2025 from 4.2% in May. The increase in core inflation was primarily due to a sharp rise in inflation in the personal care and effects sub-group. Sub-groups such as recreation and amusement, household goods and services, health, transport and communication and education also recorded an increase in inflation. While clothing and footwear recorded lower inflation, that of pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and housing remained unchanged, they added. In terms of regional distribution, both rural and urban inflation eased further to 1.7% and 2.6%, respectively, in June, with a greater fall witnessed in rural inflation.
Time of India
15 minutes ago
- Time of India
‘10% is the new zero tariff': Trump seals trade deals with many countries - what do they mean for India?
One thing is becoming clear - 10% base tariffs are the 'new zero' with which countries will have to contend in terms of negotiations. (AI image) India-US trade deal: As US President Donald Trump announces trade deals in quick succession ahead of his August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, one thing is becoming clear - 10% base tariffs are the 'new zero' with which countries will have to contend in terms of negotiations. A series of trade deals - with Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan - all appear to be in the broad range of 15-20%, much lesser than the tariffs threatened by Trump on April 2, but still above the baseline 10% tariff that is currently in place. So where does that leave India? India-US Trade Deal: What To Expect? An India-US trade deal is still elusive despite several rounds of talks between officials of the two countries. And even though Trump has said multiple times in the recent past that a deal with India is 'near', the last (and fifth) round of negotiations has proved to be inconclusive. Also Read | 'Always, zero tariffs to…': Donald Trump says US willing to lower tariff rates for major countries - this condition needs to be fulfilled It appears that a trade deal is unlikely to be announced before August 1 since deadlock on agriculture and dairy sectors continues. Reuters reported two government sources as saying that a mini trade deal before Trump's deadline looks unlikely. Meanwhile, according to a PTI report US officials are expected to visit India in the second half of August as part of the ongoing efforts for the first phase of the deal by fall. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Beyond Text Generation: An AI Tool That Helps You Write Better Grammarly Install Now Undo India maintains a strong position against American pressure in the proposed trade deal, specifically concerning lower tariffs on US farm imports like maize and soybean. The United States is asking India to open its agriculture and dairy sectors. The Indian government's key priorities include safeguarding farmers and addressing health considerations related to genetically modified commodities. The dairy industry holds particular significance in India, influenced by cultural and dietary traditions. Indian consumers raise objections to American cattle feeding methods that include animal by-products, as these practices conflict with Indian dietary principles. It is yet uncertain whether the 26% reciprocal tariff announced by Trump for India will come into effect from August 1, or will this deadline be extended. Whenever a trade deal is announced, with or without agriculture and dairy a part of it, Trump's recent actions indicate that India is unlikely to secure a tariff rate below 10%. It is broadly expected to be in the ranges similar to the tariffs announced in America's recent trade deals. Asian Countries Score Deals With Trump Administration Trump seems to finally have brought some clarity to the trade landscape of the world's largest manufacturing region through his recent tariff deals. On Tuesday, Trump finalised an agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on imports, notably also for the automotive sector, which represents the largest portion of the trade imbalance between both nations. Also Read | 'Aggressive US pressure can force…': GTRI warns India against one-sided trade deal; says don't fall into same trap' as Indonesia A deal with the Philippines saw a 19% tariff, matching Indonesia's rate and sitting just below Vietnam's 20% baseline. This suggests that most Southeast Asian nations are likely to receive comparable tariff rates, according to a Bloomberg report. "We live in a new normal where 10% is the new zero and so 15% and 20% doesn't seem so bad if everyone else got it," Trinh Nguyen, senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis told Bloomberg. She noted that US firms will still find it economically viable to import goods at these tariff levels rather than look at establishing US as their new manufacturing hub. The China Play US seems to be on its path to further streamline a trade deal with world's second largest economy, and the mid-August deadline for China tariffs is expected to be extended. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet Chinese officials in Stockholm in the coming week for their third discussion round, focusing on extending the tariff deadline and broadening the dialogue. This development indicates improving relations between the two largest global economies, following the US's recent relaxation of semiconductor restrictions and China's resumption of rare earth material exports. "We're getting along with China very well," Trump told reporters on Tuesday. "We have a very good relationship." The situation shows signs of becoming more stable after half a year of tariff-related uncertainty, which had previously elevated tariffs to 145% for China and approximately 50% for various smaller Asian export nations. Also Read | Trump tariff war: Deal or no deal - why it won't matter much for India What's The Road Ahead On Global Trade? Despite these recent agreements offering partial respite, significant uncertainties persist. The Trump administration continues to evaluate various sector-specific tariffs on products such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are vital for Asian economies including Taiwan and India - neither of which has finalised tariff arrangements with the US. South Korea faces heightened vulnerability to sector-specific tariffs, despite the Japanese agreement offering a potential blueprint for newly elected President Lee Jae Myung, according to the Bloomberg report. Trump's swift negotiations with countries which US has a significant trade deficit with are accompanied by his proposal to implement a uniform rate of 10% to 15% on approximately 150 smaller nations. The increasing clarity on tariff structures will allow organisations with intricate Asian supply networks and US market dependence to strategise operational adjustments to minimise revenue impacts. Similar to the 2018 trade tensions, recent tariff declarations are expected to encourage firms to relocate production away from China. At present, China faces the region's highest average tariff rates, whilst ongoing White House scrutiny of its technological and trade aspirations may prompt businesses to seek more stable alternatives. Shipments from Asia to the US are expected to come down after the implementation of new tariff rates. Although Southeast Asian economies and Japan face lower tariffs than initially threatened by Trump, these rates remain significantly higher compared to pre-Trump administration levels. Also Read | 'Illegal, unilateral sanctions…': China hits out at Donald Trump's tariff threat for Russia's allies; says 'coercion will not…' Barclays Plc analysts, including Brian Tan, noted in their report that "continue the trend of tariff rates gravitating towards the 15-20% range that President Trump recently indicated to be his preferred level for the blanket rate instead of 10% currently." Their analysis suggests a negative impact on Asia's GDP growth projections, the Bloomberg report said. US consumers, who have remained largely unaffected by tariff increases thus far, might experience price impacts in the coming months. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists predict an increase in the US baseline 'reciprocal' tariff rate from 10% to 15%, potentially leading to increased inflation and slower economic growth. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
NDTV
16 minutes ago
- NDTV
Relief For Japan After US Tariffs Cut, But Says It Is "No Surprise"
In the Japanese city of Seki, famed for its razor-sharp artisan knives, news that incoming US tariffs will be lowered is welcome but not entirely unexpected. Around 40 percent of kitchen blades produced in Seki, where knifemaking expertise dates back 700 years, are exported to the United States, local authorities say. The two countries announced Wednesday they had cut a deal to lower the 25-percent tariffs on Japanese goods threatened by US President Donald Trump -- starting on August 1 -- to 15 percent. "Lower tariffs are better" but "I'm not that surprised" at the trade deal, said Katsumi Sumikama, head of Sumikama Cutlery in Seki. "I don't know what truly happened, but I feel like maybe Trump thought tariffs up to 15 percent were acceptable, and boldly proposed a higher tariff rate at first," Sumikama told AFP. "Then as the negotiations took shape, he tried to create a good impression in the public eye by lowering it from 25 percent. That kind of strategy would be so Trump-like." The US leader, who hailed the Japan deal as "massive", has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariffs if they do not hammer out a pact with Washington by the end of July. Japan is one of five nations to have signed an agreement -- along with Britain, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines -- after Trump said in April he would strike "90 deals in 90 days". Headlines have focused on the impact of US tariffs on the likes of Toyota and others in Japan's huge auto industry, as well as trade in steel, rice and other key goods. But Japanese knives have in recent years become a luxury must-have in kitchens worldwide including the United States, partly fuelled by a pandemic-era home cooking boom. 'Weathered The Storm' Blademaking in Seki dates back to the 14th century, when the city in the mountains of Gifu region became a major producer of swords thanks to its rich natural environment. Today its knives are prized for their precision, sleek finish and long lifespan, with record tourism to Japan also boosting sales for companies like Sumikama Cutlery. Exports to North America, including Canada, account for just five percent of the firm's sales on a value basis. The company exports more knives to Europe and other Asian countries. CEO Sumikama, who is in his 60s, said he did not plan price hikes for the US market, even before the tariffs were reduced. Seki's industry has "weathered the storm" through the decades, including during exchange rate fluctuations -- with one dollar worth 80 yen or more than 300 yen at times, he told AFP. On the US side, clients have also survived tumultuous events such as the 2008 financial crisis, meaning they are "not worried at all" about tariffs, he added. If Trump is "trying to make America strong by deliberately raising tariffs" he should know that "problems cannot be solved by such simple means", Sumikama said, adding that "American people will have to bear the burden of higher costs". Sumikama Cutlery, which has about 30 workers, uses machines that guarantee accuracy to one-thousandth of a millimetre to make the knives, then artisans finish the job by hand. Japanese knives make food taste better, "have unique 'wabi-sabi' aesthetics" -- meaning beauty in imperfection -- "and when it comes to sharpness, they're second to none", Sumikama said. "Different countries have different strengths and weaknesses... even if President Trump tells people to make (Japanese-style) knives, they cannot."
