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Canada Inflation Slowest Since September on Carbon Tax End

Canada Inflation Slowest Since September on Carbon Tax End

Calgary Herald20-05-2025

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(Bloomberg) — Canadian inflation eased to its slowest pace since September on the elimination of the consumer carbon tax and lower oil prices, but core measures accelerated.
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The consumer price index rose 1.7% from a year ago in April, down from 2.3% in March, Statistics Canada data showed Tuesday. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists saw the headline rate rising by only 1.6%.
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The index fell 0.1% on the month, compared with economists' projections of a 0.2% drop.
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The average of the Bank of Canada's two preferred core inflation measures accelerated to a 3.2% yearly pace, up from 2.9% in March and higher than economist estimates. The three-month moving average of the core rates rose to 3.4%, from 2.9% previously.
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The loonie reversed the day's losses versus the US dollar and traded at C$1.3927 as of 9:50 a.m. in Ottawa. Canadian debt fell across the curve, with the two-year yield up about nine basis points to 2.624%.
Traders in overnight swaps lowered bets that the central bank will cut rates at its next meeting, putting the odds at about 35% compared with nearly 70% previously.
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Policymakers at the central bank had expected headline inflation to slow to about 1.5% in April due to lower crude demand and the removal of the carbon tax. Their challenge now is predicting the inflation path ahead as opposing pressures — a weaker economy and tariff-driven costs — influence consumer prices.
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'The Bank of Canada typically looks through level shifts in prices like the one driven by the removal of the carbon tax and officials will clearly be concerned with the recent acceleration in core measures of inflation,' Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, said in a report to investors.
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'That said, given that the removal of the federal carbon price will also likely impact inflation expectations, there's scope for the change to further affect price dynamics in a positive way.'
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The Bank of Canada paused its easing campaign in April to await more clarity on US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Before the inflation print, economists had largely expected the bank to restart its rate-cutting cycle as early as the next meeting on June 4, after jobs data earlier this month pointed to a deteriorating job market.

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