The Atlantic sees the first chance for tropical activity off Carolina coast

Boston Globe

03-06-2025

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There is a 10 percent chance for a tropical storm to form off the Carolina coast in the next seven days.
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Simply put, we'll likely not see a tropical storm or hurricane but there is the chance for a subtropical system that could bring large waves and nasty rip currents across the east coast this weekend and into next week.
The models suggest the high pressure that is bringing New England clear weather over the next few days will bump this system out to sea.
Forecast models suggest this area of low pressure will stay away from the coast over the next week to 10 days.
Weather Nerds
June tropical storm and hurricane history
It's interesting this is the second year in a row that we haven't seen a named storm before the start of the hurricane season. Last year's first named storm was on June 19, but back in 2023, we had a tropical storm named in January...yes, you read that right.
June usually starts slow because sea surface temperatures are still warming and there usually is more Saharan dust floating across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Saharan dust is very dry and wicks moisture from the atmosphere which is of course needed to spawn storms.
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Of the storms that do form in June, they usually form near the mainland, in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and along the Atlantic coast.
Typically during June, tropical storms and hurricanes emerge close to the mainland United States.
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Since record-keeping began in 1851, there have been 119 named storms during June. Of those named storms, 35 emerged into hurricanes with three turning into major, Category 3 or higher, hurricanes — of which last year's monster, Beryl, was the most recent.
Increasing sea surface temperatures may be the reason why at least two named storms have formed in four of the last five Junes.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms this hurricane season for the Atlantic. This is more than average but less than last year.
NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin.
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Ultimately, it only takes one devastating landfall to make a season memorable.
Ken Mahan can be reached at