UFC 318 predictions, odds, full card preview: Will Dustin Poirier find his storybook ending?
Dustin Poirier puts a bow on his legendary career Saturday with one final homecoming clash in New Orleans, Louisiana. And what better way to go out than revisiting his longtime rivalry with the all-time great Max Holloway, who officially begins his run in the lightweight division.
The trilogy bout for Holloway's BMF title follows the pair's previous all-time classic in 2019. Poirier was crowned UFC interim lightweight champion that night, winning a unanimous decision to go up 2-0 in their series. In the final installment, there's no reason to believe these two don't bring the house down.
Overall, UFC 318 falls short of the pay-per-view standard a UFC event used to meet. While there are some solid matchups sprinkled throughout, this event again largely focuses on the main event.
👑 UFC 318's lineup Crown grade: C. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
155 pounds, BMF title fight: Max Holloway (-135) vs. Dustin Poirier (+110)
Violence, violence and more violence.
OK, that's a wrap. See y'all next week.
In all seriousness, I can only imagine what the atmosphere inside the Smoothie King Center is going to be once these two enter the cage together. The matchup couldn't be any more fitting, and to call it a "make-up" feels wrong because of how incredible their rematch was. But truthfully, anyone who remembers UFC 236 on the night remembers how the energy was sucked out of the room from the Hall of Fame fight that preceded it, Israel Adesanya vs. Kelvin Gastelum.
Poirier and Holloway are in drastically different positions six years later, despite still being two of the best fighters on Earth. Aside from his Justin Gaethje rematch for the BMF strap in 2023, Poirier has only lost to undisputed lightweight champions over the past decade. Holloway, meanwhile, has somehow only leveled up with every performance that wasn't against Alexander Volkanovski, shining brighter than ever in his most recent lightweight appearance against Gaethje at UFC 300. Although he lost to the now-lightweight king Ilia Topuria, Holloway looked sharp as a tack before "El Matador" made magic.
The story of 2019's Poirier vs. Holloway rematch, which came seven years after Poirier so rudely welcomed a 20-year-old Holloway to the UFC in less than four minutes, primarily centered on the weight difference. Holloway was the featherweight champion at the time, and clearly not built into a 155-pound frame like he is now. His punching power seemingly didn't affect Poirier as much as it needed to. Since then though, Holloway has visibly become more powerful and remains as durable as ever, assuming the Topuria knockout didn't instantly crumble the historic chin of the Hawaiian.
Poirier bullied his way to the early lead in those first three rounds of the Holloway rematch, clubbing him around the Octagon until the speed factor came into play. It's difficult to say if one fighter has taken more punishment in recent years. Injury-wise, that has been Poirier, who has been open about what he went through specifically for, and after, his last fight with Islam Makhachev.
When we examine this version of Holloway, the guy's counter timing is spot on, and he packs more power than ever before. Perhaps most importantly, he seems to know it. Poirier is one of the most defensively sound boxers on the UFC roster, well capable of unleashing his own lethal counters against Holloway. I don't even think it's fair to say Poirier's skills have diminished. Holloway has just made such impressive improvements, while arguably taking slightly less damage.
Also, very, very, very, very rarely do happy endings happen in this sport. Holloway finally gets his win over "The Diamond," spoiling the retirement party.
Pick: Holloway.
185 pounds: Paulo Costa (+200) vs. Roman Kopylov (-250)
Paulo Costa's career sure has become an odd one. After starting 13-0, the Brazilian knockout artist has gone 1-4 in his last five. Despite that, he's somehow managed to remain a fixture in the main or co-main event.
Although it feels like Costa has been relatively inactive, not competing since UFC 302 in June 2024, he did fight twice last year. His next opponent Roman Kopylov fought that same night at UFC 302, winning a split decision over Cesar Almeida, while Costa dropped a split decision to Sean Strickland.
The Strickland fight definitely shouldn't have had a single soul believing Costa won it, but the less we speak about its forgettable nature, the better.
Thankfully, Costa is aware that he refrained from pulling the trigger in his last appearance and is vowing to return to the ultra-aggressive ways that carried him to a UFC title shot. However, that's exactly what Kopylov hopes for, as someone who thrives in the fire. That aforementioned Almeida win was actually only the second decision win of Kopylov's career. The rest of his wins? All knockouts. This dude comes to throw down and does so very well.
Kopylov really has yet to lose a brawl in his career, having tasted defeat only once by decision, with submissions accounting for his other two losses. Costa has shown a strong chin in his career, outside of his loss to Adesanya, which was as masterful as it comes from the former champion.
Stylistically this is a rough matchup for Costa unless he decides to change things up and pursue a grappling-heavy approach. Even then, Kopylov should be able to fend him off enough times to dish the damage. It comes down to whoever gets cracked first, and momentum is not in Costa's favor.
Pick: Kopylov.
170 pounds: Kevin Holland (-450) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+340)
There needs to be an over/under on how many fights Kevin Holland ends his career with. As he prepares for his fourth of 2025, he's rapidly approaching No. 50. This time comes against Daniel Rodriguez.
UFC knew what it was doing with this matchup, as both fighters usually go out and bang. Holland has done so occasionally to his detriment, while Rodriguez has historically displayed a polished boxing game. They're each riding two-fight win streaks, but Holland beat the better competition with better performances.
Rodriguez's speed, or lack thereof, will play a massive role in this fight when they go shot-for-shot. The rangy Holland has shown a notoriously strong chin even when outstruck by more talented strikers. Holland has even continued to tighten up his grappling defense and constantly flirts with a lethal submission when presented. Rodriguez's best hope is to land the perfect shot.
Pick: Holland.
145 pounds: Dan Ige (-200) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+165)
Patricio Pitbull's long-awaited UFC debut didn't go his way, but that was more a case of a tough stylistic matchup in Yair Rodriguez than the mythical UFC jitters. Against Dan Ige, Pitbull is well positioned to show off the talent that made him one of the division's all-time greats.
The former Bellator two-division champion has his work cut out for him with a thus far impossible opponent to put away. Ige doesn't place himself into harm's way often, and even when he finds himself caught in the crosshairs, he's worn any potential damage like a glove.
The pace for this fight, at least early on, should be fairly methodical and calculated from both men. Pitbull's great counter-game got him behind early on the scorecards against the creative Rodriguez, and he ramped it up too late for a three-round bout. He won't have to worry about anything remotely similar in Ige's game, allowing him to sit down and get comfortable in the octagon.
Additionally, at age 38, this has to feel like the last hurrah for Pitbull. If he loses this fight, he can kiss any final, grandiose hopes of a UFC title run goodbye.
Pick: Pitbull.
155 pounds: Michael Johnson (+425) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-600)
Michael Johnson on a UFC pay-per-view — and a win streak — in 2025. What a time to be alive.
The 39-year-old vet just refuses to go away, and you have to respect him for it. Unfortunately, the matchmakers are doing him somewhat dirty here despite that resurgence.
Daniel Zellhuber returns after the absolute epic that was his Fight of the Year vs. Esteban Ribovics at Noche UFC in September. The split decision loss snapped Zellhuber's three-fight win streak, but many scored it in his favor, and it was overall chaos through and through. How the man survived some of those flurries still boggles the mind.
Obviously, Johnson owns a one-hitter-quitter of the finest ilk. Landing a concussive blow on the larger, much younger prospect is Johnson's goal here. But he has an uphill battle against the one of the division's more well-rounded and continually progressing stars in the making.
Pick: Zellhuber
Preliminary notes
What a fall from grace to see Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori on the prelims of any card, eh? Regardless of their statuses in the middleweight division, there is still some relevancy to that matchup and the high-stakes bouts that could branch off it.
Odds-wise, Jimmy Crute's moneyline is a big, big head-scratcher. He hasn't won in five straight fights. Sure, Marcin Prachnio was a middling heavyweight who's become a middling light heavyweight, but it's more about how wide the spread is than anything.
Most importantly, the prelims close with what should be a wicked bantamweight showdown between "Lok Dog" Vinicius Oliveira and Kyler Phillips. I admittedly feel insane to pick against Phillips after his last three wins. The Rob Font loss was what it was, more of a veteran roadblock. But folks, "Lok Dog" is legit.
I know I gave the card a "C" grade on paper, and that's entirely because it's an $80 numbered pay-per-view event. As a general night of fights, it's actually quite good and would be a banger Fight Night.
Quick picks:
Vinicius Oliveira (-155) def. Kyler Phillips (+125)
Brendan Allen (-225) def. Marvin Vettori (+185)
Nikolay Veretnnikov (+125) def. Francisco Prado (-150)
Ateba Abega Gautier (-550) def. Robert Valentin (+400)
Islam Dulatov (-650) def. Adam Fugitt (+475)
Marcin Prachnio (+240) def. Jimmy Crute (-300)
Ryan Spann (-225) def. Lukasz Brzeski (+185)
Brunno Ferreira (-700) def. Jackson McVey (+500)
Carli Judice (-300) def. Nicolle Caliari (+240)
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