NOAA tracking 3 tropical waves in Atlantic. Erick could become Cat 3 hurricane before landfall

Yahoo

7 hours ago

See the latest story on Hurricane Erick making landfall in Mexico June 19.
Hurricane Erick is rapidly intensifyying and could become a Category 3 storm before reaching the coast of southern Mexico, bringing hurricane conditions and life-threatening flash floods, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Popular tourist destination Acapulco is within the hurricane warning area.
In the Atlantic basin, conditions remain quiet. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves.
The first named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Andrea.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Scattered showers, with the potential for a few strong isolated thunderstorms, are possible across Florida Wednesday, June 18. Temperatures are expected to remain hot, with the heat index reaching as high as 103 in some locations.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. June 18.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 14N, moving westward at 6 to 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 13N, moving westward at 6 to 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 15N, moving westward at 11 mph.
"The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20, but development over the central and eastern basin looks unfavorable through June at this time," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Hurricane Erick in the eastern Pacific is expected to bring hurricane conditions and life-threatening flash floods to portions of southern Mexico later tonight and Thursday, June 19.
The storm is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a Category 3 hurricane with 115-mph winds before making landfall along the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero June 19.
Hurricane watches and warnings, along with a tropical storm warning, have been issued.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph, with higher gusts, making Erick a Category 2 hurricane. Rapid strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Erick will bring rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, the Hurricane Center said.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
"There is some dust moving through the Caribbean right now but most of it will stay south and west of Florida. Some will move into Texas and Louisiana late this week," DaSilva said.
The next plume of dust that could impact South Florida may arrive around June 27 and could last a few days, DaSilva said via email.
"The dust set to arrive in Florida in around 10 days could be comparable to the dust that went through Florida recently, however since it is still 10 days away and still over Africa, the dust concentration is still subject to change as it moves across the Atlantic."
"Strong wind shear and an abundance of Saharan dust is helping to protect Florida," DaSilva said.
There are "no concerns in the Atlantic for at least the next seven days. There is too much dry air and the wind shear is too high," DaSilva said. "If anything develops in June it would likely be in the Bay of Campeche or far western Caribbean, where the shear is a little lower."
"The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20 and the average first hurricane is Aug. 11. It is not really that unusual for the start of the season to be quiet. Water temperatures and ocean heat content remain very high in the Gulf.
"I think once we get more into the heart of the season, things could get very active. Expect a second-half loaded season.
Dry air, including associated Saharan dust, along with wind shear, both prevent tropical systems from developing or strengthening, essentially cutting off the fuel storms need.
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Showers and storms are likely today. Highs will be mostly around 90.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle:Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low-mid 90s.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Scattered thunderstorms will develop today as the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes move inland. Isolated strong thunderstorms will focus between Highway 301 and US 17 this afternoon into early evening. Impacts include wind gusts of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. High near 93. Heat index values as high as 103.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Another hot day is in store with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s. Isolated rain and storm chances (30%) are highest near and west of Greater Orlando this afternoon/evening. High of 89 in Daytona Beach, near 87 in Stuart and 95 in Orlando.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: A few isolated to scattered showers today, mostly focusing towards the Gulf coast areas by the afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, but chances are lower for storms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across South Florida. High near 85 in West Palm Beach and high near 91 Naples, with heat index values as high as 103.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Isolated to scattered storms expected mainly in the evening and early overnight hours today with highs in the low to mid 90s. High near 91, with heat index values as high as 103 in Sarasota. High near 93, with heat index values as high as 102 in Fort Myers.
Among the changes the National Hurricane Center announced for the 2025 hurricane season was the addition of a rip current risk map.
➤ National Hurricane Center lays out changes coming for 2025 season. See what to expect
This new addition provided by the Hurricane Center will be provided for the current day, the next day, and as a composite showing the highest risk over both days for areas along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the coast of southern California.
The map for June 18, shows high risks for rip currents along a portion of Florida's Panhandle, as well as along the Atlantic coast in Southeast Florida.
➤ Florida ranks in top 5 states where swimming is most dangerous. How to avoid summer tragedy
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic basin.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NOAA tracking 3 tropical waves. Hurricane Erick rapidly intensifying