UFC Vegas 106 predictions, odds: Fight night full card picks for prelims and main card

New York Post

17-05-2025

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Fresh off the possibly the best fight card we've seen this year at UFC 315, we head back to the warehouse at the APEX Center.
Last weekend's results were fantastic, as we hit two long-shot plays with Navajo Stirling by decision (+270) and Modestas Bukauskas by decision (+310) to cash in on the prelim card.
We profited 4.63 units for the entire card and are looking at more moneymaking opportunities in the coming weekend.
The card begins at 4 pm. ET on ESPN+, with the main card beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC Vegas predictions
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Coming in as a massive +575 underdog Saturday, it must be over for Gilbert Burns, the former welterweight title challenger.
Burns has fought the best of the best in this division, nearly defeating current champion Jack Della Maddalena last year, before really struggling against Sean Brady last time out.
He faces a shiny new object in undefeated welterweight prospect Michael Morales.
Morales has defeated 12 of his 17 opponents by knockout and is certainly live to land a knockout win in this fight.
He is -150 to win this five-round bout by knockout.
What Burns should look to do is time a takedown correctly and get Morales to the mat, as Burns is long known as a jiu-jitsu savant.
Michael Morales is undefeated.
Zuffa LLC
Morales has an obscene 92 percent takedown defense rate and Burns' striking is too low volume for me to really trust against a powerful fighter like Morales.
Take Morales to win this one as a parlay builder, with the official pick being Morales wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-195, DraftKings).
Feel free to dive into Morales live if his moneyline drops below -200 during round two, as well.
PICK: Morales wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-195, DraftKings)
Rodolfo Bellato posing before UFC 312 in 2025.
Zuffa LLC
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
Coming off a loss to a since-deflated prospect in Bo Nickal isn't a great precursor to being favored in their next fight, regardless of opponent.
Rodolfo Bellato certainly profiles as a similar step in competition to Nickal for Craig, although Bellato should have even better striking.
I've been a fan of Bellato since his Dana White's Contender Series debut when he was knocked out by stud-prospect Vitor Petrino.
Bellato fought Jimmy Crute to a majority decision draw last time out, a fight that showed his resilience after being knocked down, although his grappling didn't look particularly up to standard.
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Bellato is largely unproven, but he's still a -550 favorite in this fight, meaning the co-main and main events have clear expected winners going in.
These odds are just a bit too wide for me to look at backing Bellato, but I'm not a big Craig fan either, considering he doesn't do anything that can consistently win you rounds.
Take a different approach to Saturday's co-main event and ladder the 'Over' props.
In this case, I'm looking to wager 1.5 units on the fight, with 0.75 units on fight starts Round 2 (-144 to win 0.52 units) and 0.5 units on Over 1.5 rounds (+118 to win 0.59 units) and the remaining 0.25 units on goes the distance (+400 to win 1 unit).
PICK: 0.75 units on fight starts Round 2 (-144, FanDuel) | Over 1.5 rounds (+118, BetRivers) | Fight goes the distance (+400, Caesars)
UFC Vegas full card picks
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos: Santos moneyline (-135, DraftKings)
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev: Live bet Stoltzfus after Round 2
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa: Erosa inside the distance (+275, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo Gabe Green by KO/TKO (+550, Caesars Sportsbook)
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises: Gordon ML (-117, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yadier del Valle vs. Connor Matthews: Fight goes the distance (-104, BetMGM)
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa: Santos ML (-163, BetRivers)
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes: Small bet on Reed by decision (+800, BetRivers)
HyunSung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez: Carlos Hernandez ML (+145, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro: Pinheiro by decision (+550, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.