World Bank: 421 million living in extreme poverty globally as conflicts more than tripled since 2000
Economies in fragile and conflict-affected regions have become 'the epicentre of global poverty and food insecurity, a situation increasingly shaped by the frequency and intensity of conflict,' the bank added in a new study.
This year, 421 million people get by on less than US$3 (RM12.70) a day in places hit by conflict or instability — a situation of extreme poverty — and the number is poised to hit 435 million by 2030.
Global attention has been focused on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East for the past three years, said World Bank Group chief economist Indermit Gill.
But 'half of the countries facing conflict or instability today have been in such conditions for 15 years or more,' he added.
Currently, 39 economies are classified as facing such conditions, and 21 of them are in active conflict, the Washington-based development lender said.
The list includes Ukraine, Somalia, South Sudan and the West Bank and Gaza.
It also includes Iraq although not Iran.
The report flagged that moves to prevent conflict can bring high returns, with timely interventions being 'far more cost-effective than responding after violence erupts.'
It also said that some of these economies have advantages that could be used to reignite growth, noting that places like Zimbabwe, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo are rich in minerals key to clean tech like electric vehicles and solar panels.
'Economic stagnation — rather than growth — has been the norm in economies hit by conflict and instability over the past decade and a half,' said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Group deputy chief economist.
The bank's report noted that high-intensity conflicts, which kill more than 150 per million people, are typically followed by a cumulative fall of around 20 percent in GDP per capita after five years. — AFP
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Daily Express
2 hours ago
- Daily Express
Sanctions making arbitration difficult
Published on: Thursday, July 31, 2025 Published on: Thu, Jul 31, 2025 By: Sherell Jeffrey Text Size: L/R: Steve, Dutsadee, Kevin, Ning and Fei. Kota Kinabalu: International arbitration is faced with challenges due to sanctions and corruption concerns, adding risks, costs and complexity to global trade dispute resolution. 'Arbitration is now a clash of international law, policy and economic law. It is more than just arbitration procedures that we need to know,' said Beihai Asia International Centre (Singapore) Founding President cum Executive Director Prof Steve Ngo. Steve, a recognised International Arbitrator, said this at the recent Borneo International Centre for Arbitration and Mediation (Bicam) Global alternative dispute resolutions (ADR) Horizons conference where he moderated Session 7's Navigating Impact of Sanctions and Corruption Allegation in Arbitration. What Is International Arbitration and why should we care? Before diving into the problems, it is important to understand what international arbitration is. Think of it as hiring a neutral referee when two companies from different countries have a business disagreement. Instead of going to court which can be slow, expensive and potentially biased toward the local company, businesses agree to let a neutral expert (called an arbitrator) hear both sides and make a binding decision. It is private, usually faster than court and the decision can be enforced in most countries around the world through international treaties. For decades, this system has been the backbone of international trade, giving companies confidence to do business across borders knowing they have a fair way to resolve disputes. But now, as the experts at the Bicam conference notes, that confidence is being shattered. Pisut & Partners' Dutsadee Dutsadeepanich, a major legal firm in Thailand, spoke about how international sanctions are crippling the arbitration system. 'Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and United Kingdom have created a maze of obstacles that make conducting fair arbitrations nearly impossible when certain parties are involved,' said Dutsadee who is also a member of Thailand's parliament. 'Arbitration is no longer straightforward for sanctioned parties,' she said, pointing out how even basic steps like paying arbitration fees become impossible when banks refuse to process transactions involving sanctioned companies. 'The problem is far more than just payment issues. This is a chilling effect where experienced arbitrators, the neutral referees' businesses rely on, simply refuse to take cases involving sanctioned parties. 'Why? They are worried about getting paid, damaging their reputations or even breaking laws in their home countries. 'For example, EU-based arbitrators may be prohibited from working on a case involving a Russian entity without special government permission,' she said, adding that this destroys one of arbitration's key advantages, which is the ability for parties to choose arbitrators they trust. The same problems face legal representation. 'Law firms from countries imposing sanctions often need government authorisation to represent sanctioned parties, while frozen bank accounts can make it impossible for sanctioned companies to pay their lawyers. The result? A fundamentally unfair playing field,' she said. Dutsadee cited examples of RCA (a Russian company) and Linde (a German company) fighting over a natural gas project. 'What should have been a single, clean arbitration turned into a messy battle across multiple countries and courts, exactly what the arbitration system was designed to prevent,' she said. Even worse, she noted, when arbitrations do proceed and decisions are made, there is no guarantee they can be enforced if sanctioned parties are involved. Courts may simply refuse to enforce decisions on public policy grounds. On corruption, Dutsadee said Thailand's challenge is that corruption issues often do not surface during the arbitration itself, but later when trying to enforce decisions. 'In Thailand, we have a lot of corruption related to arbitration, but at the stage of enforcement, especially when it involves contracts between private companies and government entities,' she said. Her prediction for the future? A shift toward arbitration centres in neutral countries like Singapore and Hong Kong as companies seek to avoid sanctions-related complications. Legal Solutions LLC (Singapore) Director Kevin Tan who works as both a lawyer and arbitrator, offered insights from Singapore, one of the world's top arbitration destinations. 'Singapore has built its reputation on being business-friendly while maintaining strict standards. We have zero-tolerance policy for corruption. As many of you would know, this includes tickets for concerts and the like,' Kevin said, pointing out how seriously the city-state takes these issues. He said corruption in arbitration comes in two flavours, namely corruption related to the original business deal (like bribing someone to get a contract) and corruption of the arbitration process itself (like bribing the arbitrator). 'Both can destroy an arbitration's validity,' he said. He cited a case study involving a Dutch investor and the government of Laos over gambling and casino investments. 'When corruption allegations surfaced, the arbitrators did not just ignore them, they conducted a thorough investigation using banking records, accounting reports, emails and witness testimony. 'The tribunal found that allegations of corruption were made out on balance of probabilities. 'When the losing party tried to challenge this decision in Singapore's courts, the judges refused and made a strong statement that arbitrators have a public duty to investigate corruption, regardless of what the parties might prefer. 'This sends a message that even in Singapore's pro-business environment, courts would not hesitate to intervene when corruption is involved,' he said. On sanctions, Kevin pointed out how Singapore follows United Nations sanctions while trying to be practical. He cited a recent case where Singapore courts granted a conditional delay when a company claimed US sanctions prevented it from paying an arbitration award. 'This shows that Singapore courts do not automatically enforce sanctions, but will consider them practically if compliance would make payment impossible for a party,' he said. He pointed out three worrying trends, namely companies are choosing different locations for their arbitrations when sanctions might be involved, arbitration centres are doing much more background checking and lawyers are having to become sanctions experts just to draft contracts. 'Law firms now need dedicated sanctions teams to protect their clients and their own reputations, a cost that ultimately gets passed on to businesses and consumers,' he said. Hui Zhong Law Firm Managing Partner Ning Fei from a China law firm, shared his perspective on how seriously corruption can be taken in arbitration. 'China operates what may be the world's strictest anti-corruption system for arbitration. The rules are so tough they make other countries look permissive by comparison,' he said. 'Chinese arbitration laws explicitly ban arbitrators from having private meetings with parties, receiving gifts or accepting any form of entertainment. 'In China, such practices are normally not allowed. It is quite strict,' Ning Fei said, referring to informal communications that are routine in other countries. But here is the kicker, China imposes criminal penalties on corrupt arbitrators. 'China is probably one of the few countries that impose criminal liability for arbitrators. If you take bribes from parties or have personal interest in a case, you may be sentenced from three to seven years in jail,' Ning Fei said. He cited examples of arbitrators being caught and banned from practice, including one who was followed by a suspicious party and photographed having dinner with the opposing side and another who was discovered making private phone calls to one party. 'Unlike other countries where arbitration centres take a hands-off approach, Chinese institutions actively monitor arbitrator behaviour through secretariat departments that can observe proceedings and participate in internal discussions. 'The secretary department knows well about arbitrators, who are good people, who may be biased. 'They have internal discussions and reviews. You can see regularly every couple of years, some people join the list, some people are released,' he said. He also pointed out that China has also had to deal with sham arbitrations, namely fake proceedings where parties collude to create enforceable court orders without genuine disputes. He cited examples of cases where companies essentially sued themselves or created artificial disputes just to get official-looking decisions they could enforce elsewhere. On sanctions, Ning Fei acknowledged the political complexity while noting that enforcement depends heavily on specific circumstances and which courts are involved. 'Interestingly, China's own retaliatory sanctions have not had much practical impact on business or arbitration enforcement,' he said. * Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel and Telegram for breaking news alerts and key updates! * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia
Malay Mail
5 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Constrained, contained and capped conflict between Thailand and Cambodia — Phar Kim Beng and Jitkai Chin
JULY 31 — From co-ordinated drone attacks in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, to the explosion of walkie-talkies in the Middle East, the nature of modern warfare has changed dramatically. In the India-Pakistan conflict, Chinese-made weapons are stepping into the spotlight. In that clash, Pakistan used a well-coordinated system of Chinese equipment, from JF-17 fighter jets to radars and AWACS to check Indian advances. The highlight? Downing of an Indian Rafale jet. This wasn't just a parade of Chinese technology—it was a live demonstration that these systems could hold their own in a real fight. Fast forward to the recent Thailand-Cambodia conflict, it is a different kind of conflict - lower in scale but rich in strategic nuance. After the peace deal in Putrajaya, experts have begun examining how this conflict compares to others, and what it reveals about regional power projection. Over the past few decades, China has become a prominent arms supplier to countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Cambodia, an important and long standing China ally in Southeast Asia, has emerged as a key recipient. Other than small firearms, Its major inventory includes Type-59D tanks, SH-15 howitzers, BM-21 and RM-70 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Thailand also procures some Chinese platforms such as the VT-4 tanks and VN-16 amphibious vehicles, but it remains largely reliant on Western systems. In the skirmish with Cambodia, it was this Western edge that dominated its military response. The Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTAF) deployed F-16 fighter jets, Swedish-made JAS 39 Gripens, and Israeli ATMOS howitzers that offered a decisive technological and operational advantage. In the skirmish, Cambodia's military response was rooted in older Soviet-era and Chinese-supplied systems. Cambodia relied heavily on the use of BM-21 and RM-70 MLRS, indicating the strategic importance of the assets. These rocket systems, known for their saturation firepower but limited precision, may have been responsible for civilian casualties reported on the Thai side. In addition, the deployment of SH-15 howitzers by Cambodia looked primitive, as the absence of advanced targeting systems and coordinated ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) support caused their efforts ineffective. While rumors of Cambodia acquiring the more advanced Chinese PHL-03 MLRS have surfaced, there has been no confirmed deployment in this conflict. In contrast to the haphazard artillery tactic, lack of coordinated firepower actions from Cambodia, Thailand's counter-offensive, designated Operation Yuttha Bodin, emphasized on precision and deterrence. RTAF has demonstrated carefully orchestrated strikes in the deployment of fighter aircraft, artillery, and drones. One notable drone attack successfully neutralized a Cambodian rocket launcher moments before it could fire. In fact, the military strength of RTAF is underpinned not only by superior platforms but also extensive international training and exposure. For decades, RTAF has been no stranger to international land-centric exercises, such as Hanuman Guardian (with the US), Lightning Forge, Balance Torch, and Pitch Black (with Australia), which cement their readiness for real-world scenarios. Exercise Cobra Gold, which is an annual multinational exercise organized by Thailand, is one of the most important occasions for the Royal Thai Air Force to enhance its capability with US and other forces. Through the exercise, Thailand's F-16 and JAS 39 Gripen pilots sharpen their interoperability skills in realistic combat scenarios. Cambodian soldiers reload the BM-21 multiple rocket launcher in Preah Vihear province on July 24, 2025 after Thailand launched air strikes that have resulted in civilian casualties. — AFP pic In comparison to Thailand, Cambodia has limited participation in multilateral military exercises. It has only focused on joint training and defense cooperation such as the 'Golden Dragon' exercise. These drills typically involve counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief scenarios. In this conflict, Thai F-16s and Gripens flew combat missions together in response to the offensive by MLRS from Cambodia. It is the first time both aircraft operated together in an actual combat environment to form a formidable strike package. Thailand chose not to respond to Cambodia's MLRS attacks with a more powerful system like HIMARS, but instead with state-of-the-art aircrafts, is an excellent demonstration of coordinated air power, reflecting strategic emphasis on precision and escalation control. Another standout capability demonstrated by the Thai Air Force was the use of KGGB (Korean GPS-Guided Bombs). These GPS/INS-guided munitions enabled high-precision strikes on Cambodian positions with minimal collateral damage. Interestingly, there were no reports of GPS jamming or electronic signal disruption in these areas throughout the conflict, nor did these interferences reported in NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen), indicating either a serious lack of such capability or an unwillingness to escalate technologically from Cambodia. The seamless deployment of KGGB highlights two key points: first, the depth of Thai-American and -South Korea defense collaboration, because P(Y) code or M-code of GPS is controlled by US; Secondly, Thailand's integration into global GPS-reliant warfare, an electronic warfare domain where denial tactics could have shifted the balance. Among recent global conflicts, like the brutal Russia-Ukraine war or the tightly managed Israel-Iran and Pakistan-India standoffs, the Thailand–Cambodia clash stood out for how low-tech and controlled it was. It felt like both sides were holding back, especially Thailand. Despite being clearly more capable, Thailand responded with precision and restraint. Why? Possibly because Cambodia is a key ally of China, and dragging in a superpower is the last thing anyone in Asean wants. The region highly values its ability to solve issues in its compound without inviting external interference. On top of that, this was a basic, conventional fight without electronic warfare, satellites, or cyber attacks, hence any escalation seemed unlikely from the start. Many suspect China sees Cambodia as a proxy, but in this case, Beijing remained conspicuously silent, suggesting that even China didn't want this to spiral out of control. Nobody would like to seek conflict, but in geopolitics, clashes are sometimes inevitable. What distinguishes responsible actors is how they manage them. Thailand's response was deliberate and carefully calibrated, but it sent a message! Cambodia's Chinese-made arsenal underperformed in both execution and effect. Whether this was due to inadequate training, poor command integration, or a deliberate decision to withhold capabilities remains unclear. However, superiority lies not in hardware alone, but in how that hardware is wielded. Having weapons is just insufficient, the systems, the training, and the discipline to use them make a difference. In a region where diplomacy still counts, this low-key yet firm clash reminded everyone that power can be shown without turning up the heat. The Thai-Cambodia border may be quiet for now, but it could be temporary. Until the longstanding territorial disputes are formally resolved, the possibility of renewed tension lingers. Cambodia really needs to have deep reflection during this period of time. Should it rethink its military doctrine? Should it strengthen its forces or focus on improving usage of current assets? Perhaps more importantly, can it broaden its defense partnerships beyond its traditional ally, China? These are pressing questions for Phnom Penh that require both strategic clarity and diplomatic finesse, for regional stability. * Phar Kim Beng is Professor of Asean Studies, Director of Institute of Internationalization and Asean Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. Jitkai Chin is Associate Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Petronas. ** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
Malay Mail
15 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Ill-equipped and tired: a night with a Ukrainian air defence unit
KYIV, July 30 — A menacing buzz reverberates through the night sky in eastern Ukraine. Explosions ring out, flashes illuminate sunflower fields below and the smell of gunpowder poisons the air. 'There! Three kilometres away!' shouted one Ukrainian serviceman in the air defence unit equipped with Soviet-era weapons and tasked with intercepting Russian drones, before they home in on Ukrainian towns and cities. The long-range unmanned aerial vehicles originally designed by Iran but improved and launched by Moscow have been devastating Ukraine since the early chapters of the Kremlin's invasion launched in early 2022. Moscow has trumpeted its industrial-scale production of the cheap weapons, with state-television broadcasting what it called the world's largest drone factory. The rare footage showed the assembly of hundreds of jet-black triangle-shaped Gerans—geraniums in Russian. On the night in July that AFP embedded with an air defence unit in Ukraine's eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, Russia launched 344 drones, but its largest-ever barrage comprised of more than 700. 'It's rotten tonight, just like the day before,' said one serviceman in the air defence unit, leaning over a radar. Increasingly sophisticated Gerans are flying at higher altitudes and able to alter course en route, but Vasyl's unit is equipped with old, short-range weapons. 'They fly chaotically and unpredictably. It has become harder to destroy them,' the 49-year-old told AFP. 'We're effective, but I can't promise that it will be like this every week,' he added. 'Nothing we can do' Oleksandr, a fellow serviceman defending airspace near Pavlograd city, was scrutinising a radar where hundreds of red dots were appearing. 'There's nothing we can do. It's not our area,' he said of the incoming drones. His 20-year-old daughter, who lives in Pavlograd, was not answering her phone, he told AFP while lighting a cigarette. 'But I warned her,' added Oleksandr, who like others in this story identified himself with his first name or army nickname in line with military protocol. An explosion boomed, the horizon glowed crimson and dark smoke appeared in the sky moments later. President Volodymyr Zelensky has secured several Patriot batteries from allies since the invasion began and is appealing for funding for 10 more systems. But the sophisticated systems are reserved for fending off Russian missile attacks on high-priority targets and larger cities. Ukraine is instead seeking to roll out cheap interceptor drones to replace units like Vasyl's, and Zelensky has tasked manufacturers with producing up to 1,000 per day. 'People and modern weapons' are what Ukraine needs to defend its air space, Vasyl told AFP. The teams get little sleep—two hours on average, or four on a good night, and perhaps another one between drone waves, Vasyl said, adding that the deprivation takes a physical toll. One serviceman with another air defence unit in the eastern Donetsk region, who goes by Wolf, told AFP he has problems sleeping anyway due to grim memories he has fighting in east Ukraine. Sleep deprivation Belyi who works alongside Wolf was assigned to the unit regiment after he sustained a concussion and a shell blew off part of his hand while he was fighting in eastern Ukraine. Both were miners in eastern Ukraine before Moscow invaded. Russian drones are threatening their families in the city of Kryvyi Rig, in the neighbouring region further west. Neither has been granted leave to visit home in more than two years and they are instead working around the clock, seven days a week. Back near Pavlograd, sunrise reveals dark circles under the soldiers' eyes, but the buzz of a new drone wave emerges from the horizon. The unit's anti-aircraft gun fires one volley of tracer rounds, then jams. The team grabs WWII-era machine guns and fire blindly in the air. Another drone in the Russian arsenal is the Gerbera, once an unarmed decoy used to overwhelm air defence systems that have since been fitted with cameras and are targeting Vasyl's team. 'Only fools are not afraid. Really,' he said. On his phone he showed an image of his two blond-haired children who are now living in the capital Kyiv—also under escalating bombardments. 'I'm here for them,' he told AFP. — AFP
