SoFi Stock Up 36% — May Rise On Crypto, Student Loan Policy Boosts

Forbes

08-07-2025

SoFi Technologies stock is on a roll due to favorable crypto rulings from bank regulator and student loan changes in the Big, Beautiful Bill Act
SoFi logo sign on the facade of an art deco style office building, San Francisco, California, May ... More 27, 2025. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images) Gado via Getty Images Key Facts
Lower federal student-loan caps in the Big Beautiful Bill Act could drive more graduate student borrowers to SoFi and other private-student lenders, according to the Wall Street Journal
SoFi's cryptocurrency services will likely benefit by the end of 2025 from The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's interpretive regulatory letters permitting nationally chartered banks to 'custody crypto assets and execute blockchain payments,' reported AInvest .
SoFi stock has risen 36% in 2025 as of July 7. However, analysts view the shares as nearly 23% overvalued, TipRanks noted.
Shares of San Francisco-based financial services platform operator SoFi Technologies have risen 36% this year.
That is an improvement since the end of April when the stock had risen 22% after 'SoFi exceeded Q1 2025 expectations and raised full-year guidance, driven by record member, product, and fee-based revenue growth,' according to my April Forbes post.
At the time, SoFi faced considerable regulatory uncertainty — specifically related to student loans and cryptocurrency. Now there is much more clarity on these two topics — which has helped send SoFi stock up. Here's how: The Big Beautiful Bill Act reduced how much graduate students can borrow from the federal government which is likely to drive borrowers to SoFi and other private-student lenders.
OCC regulatory letters eliminate much of the regulatory uncertainty related to SoFi's cryptocurrency services — which should stimulate demand and boost revenue.
While declining to comment on the BBBA, SoFi expects to benefit from limits to federal student lending. We will 'absolutely capture that opportunity,' SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said on an April earnings featured in a Bloomberg report .
A sour note in this picture is somewhat gloomy Wall Street analyst 12-month stock price forecasts which suggest SoFi stock is 23% over-valued.
However, those analysts could be wrong and I expect the company to beat expectations and raise guidance when SoFi issues its second quarter report later this month. (Disclosure: I am a SoFi shareholder).
In April, SoFi reported first quarter results that beat expectations and the company raised its guidance for 2025.
For example, SoFi's first quarter adjusted net revenue rose 33% to $772 million — which beat the FactSet consensus by $33 million. Moreover, SoFi's q1 earnings per share of six cents was double the FactSet view, I wrote in Forbes .
SoFi also raised 2025 guidance for key metrics. The company raised by 1% its previous net revenue outlook to $3.273 billion while adding 5.7% to SoFi's 2025 EPS guidance: now $0.275 per share, I noted.
In April, the OCC's looser bank crypto policies had been announce; however, government policies towards federal student loan limits were unresolved. At the time, SoFi anticipated it would 'offer crypto investing by year-end, barring unforeseen circumstances,' Noto told CNBC .
The recently passed BBBA eliminates April's uncertainty regarding changes to federal student loans. How Sofi Will Benefit From Crypto Clarity
The OCC's rulings permitting banks to custody cryptocurrency and make payments on the blockchain enhance two SoFi revenue streams: crypto trading and remittance processing on the blockchain.
When it comes to crypto trading, SoFi has an advantage over platforms such as Coinbase or Kraken. Specifically, with 30% of adults having adopted crypto, SoFi offers users a one-stop shopping service those rivals do not provide.
More specifically, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, and crypto-collateralized lending this year, SoFi can also provide lending, savings, and insurance services to those younger, more tech-savvy SoFi customers, noted AInvest .
The $90 billion market for cross-border payments is dominated by 'high-cost legacy providers like Western Union and MoneyGram,' AInvest reported. In 2024, SoFi launched a blockchain-powered remittance service which offers compelling value to customers.
By enabling users to transfer at any time using stablecoins over the blockchain, SoFi 'eliminates currency conversion fees and reduces processing times from days to minutes,' according to AInvest .
After adding 800,000 new users in the first quarter — many from this remittance service — recurring remittance fees (in the range of 1% to 3% of the transaction value, could supplement SoFi's loan and wealth management businesses.
By 2030, the market for fintech blockain is expected to reach $49 billion — a market on which SoFi is well-positioned to capitalize, according to AInvest . Sofi Student Lending Revenue May Rise On Bbba Student Loan Limits
Since SoFi's original business was student loan refinancing, the BBBA offers the company a significant growth opportunity. For example, new federal loan caps will lower federal borrowing some 28% to $100,000 for graduate students and 11% to $200,000 for medical school, the Journal reported.
SoFi is anticipated to be a leader in making up the difference between the old and new federal student loan caps — most notable for student loan refinancing. 'Refinancing demand should also accelerate with the resumption of debt collection and higher payments,' Citizens Financial Group head of fintech research Devin Ryan told Bloomberg .
'SoFi has terrific market share in student lending, and, with a number of lenders pulling back in recent years, we expect the firm to be a primary beneficiary of increasing demand,' Ryan added.
SoFi stock — 13.7% of which is sold short, noted the Journal — could rise further.
To be sure, the shares face headwinds as reflected in analysts' 12-month price target suggesting the stock is 23% too high. What's more, risks include competition from Block and Revolut in blockchain remittance processign and rising unemployment.
The bullish case depends on SoFi reaching $3.5 billion to $4 billion in 2026 revenue — justifying the company's 67x P/E, noted AIinvest .
Disclosure: I own shares in SoFi Technologies – starting as an angel investor in 2014.