US dollar slumps as Trump's tariff deadline looms
Trading was mostly subdued, with the Japanese currency advancing for a second straight session following results from a weekend upper house election in Japan that had already been priced in. The focus has shifted to how quickly Tokyo can strike a trade deal with Washington as well as on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future at the helm.
In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 0.5% to 146.54 yen , having fallen more than 1% on Monday following the weekend election and a public holiday. The U.S. currency has retreated for two straight sessions against the yen.
With little over a week to go before August 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the administration is more concerned with the quality of trade agreements than their timing.
Asked whether the deadline could be extended for countries engaged in productive talks with Washington, Bessent said President Donald Trump would make that decision.
"Markets are ... looking through that noise (August 1 tariff deadline) until something actually definitive happens," said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX, at Jefferies in New York.
"And a lot of the data has actually been looking okay even with all the tariffs, at least those that have been implemented already."
Uncertainty over the eventual state of tariffs globally has been a huge overhang for the foreign exchange market, leaving currencies trading in a tight range for the most part, even as stocks on Wall Street have scaled fresh highs.
The dollar index, a gauge of its value against a basket of currencies, slipped 0.3% to 97.545 , having weakened around 0.6% on Monday. It hit a two-week low earlier in the session.
The euro edged up 0.2% to $1.1725, with the European Central Bank also in the mix this week for central bank meetings. It is not expected to adjust euro zone interest rates, however. The single currency rose to two-week highs earlier in the global day.
A deal between the European Union, which could face 30% tariffs from August 1, and the United States remains elusive. EU diplomats said on Monday they were exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures given fading prospects for an agreement.
"The dollar's early-month recovery is running out of momentum, the euro is flat-lining ahead of Thursday's placeholder central bank meeting, and the Japanese yen is consolidating gains achieved after the weekend's better-than-feared election results," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto.
"Trading ranges are narrowing against a relatively-quiet data backdrop. Positioning across a range of trading pairs is moving into neutral territory, and gauges of implied volatility are ratcheting lower. "
Also weighing on investors' minds were worries about Federal Reserve independence, given Trump has repeatedly railed against Chair Jerome Powell and urged him to resign because of the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates.
Bessent on Monday took a softer stance, saying that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately, adding that he should see through the end of his term in May if he wants.
"You can criticize the Fed for many of its policy moves over the years. But pushing the Fed chair out because he won't follow White House instructions is a step too far," wrote Kathy Jones, senior fixed income strategist, at Schwab in a research note.
"It will undermine confidence in the central bank at a time when inflation is still too high, and policy is a confusing mix of priorities. If Powell is replaced by someone who is seen as doing the administration's bidding, it would likely lead to a weaker dollar and much higher long-term interest rates."
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