What is really going on inside the confusing Alexander Isak transfer saga?
No matter what else Howe says, it is hardly encouraging that the manager admits he has 'to send him home' from a pre-season friendly 'due to the speculation around him'. That is a strange and conspicuous decision in such circumstances. Some teammates won't even be drawn on his future. There were still other alarm-bell lines from Howe, even as he maintained Isak is 'happy at Newcastle'. Among them were 'I respect a player's career and how short it is'.
The great question isn't over Newcastle's stance but whether Isak will actually agitate to leave. Most have thought that was unlikely due to his personality, but it's not being said with the same confidence it was. At the same time, the transfer window can bring different forces, and unexpected twists. Things can drastically change when there's suddenly money on the table. Isak may have to actually agitate to ensure that. Some wonder whether it would be too late.
Those close to Isak's circle insisted as far back as last year that his future is not 'clear cut', and that this was always going to be 'a big summer'. Newcastle's controversial but almost limitlessly wealthy ownership may mean they have even less need to sell than anyone else, but no squad really needs a player around that doesn't want to be there.
So it really comes down to how much Isak's head has actually been turned.
There is still one huge caveat to all of this talk, and that is the size of any prospective fee. Isak is really worth around £150m, and Newcastle are not even going to consider much less.
While every club would love Isak, there are very few who can afford him outright, and only a handful that have the budget this summer.
Real Madrid don't have the space, and actually need to sell in those positions, as they prioritise midfield. Barcelona have the need, but don't have the budget, as can be viewed by the fact they are going for Marcus Rashford on a loan deal. Paris Saint-Germain are maybe one to watch here, and he would fit the profile of new Champions League winners. The word is they are nevertheless focusing on other areas. Bayern Munich clearly have something close to the budget, as well as the need, since they have already considered deals of around £100m for Florian Wirtz and Luis Diaz. They just haven't been mentioned as a club Isak would be interested in going to.
All of which leaves - much to Newcastle's potential irritation - the kind of Premier League rivals they are seeking to supplant.
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, at least, are barely worth mentioning in this. Chelsea have obviously thought about it given co-owner Behdad Eghbali's passion for player trading, but Isak would involve a considerable adjustment to the wage structure, and there is currently no serious suggestion anything will happen there. Manchester City have already spent £350m since January, and consequently used much of the PSR headroom they had built up. Liverpool would actually have to pay out another £120m to match that figure this year, which points to how a recent reticence to spend has given them such scope this summer.
Everyone is watching what is next there, and no one in football can really understand the dynamics so far.
Liverpool evidently have an interest in Isak, but have denied contact with Newcastle. Other sources insist there has been contact, amid a lot of speculation about 'power plays' and multi-layered strategies. A theory has grown that Liverpool have pursued Newcastle target Hugo Ekitike to try and force the Isak situation, but you probably don't make an offer to Eintracht Frankfurt if that is actually the case. They are visibly, seriously advancing on another deal.
Except, sources close to the negotiations say they haven't advanced that quickly, and Frankfurt have also been frustrated with the pace of it all. All of that is precisely why Howe's decision to leave Isak out of the Celtic match only adds to the intrigue.
Finally, looking on, there is then Arsenal. They were the club that were long seen as Isak's strongest suitor and who the player has previously had an interest in going to.
Arsenal are actively trying to buy a forward. They haven't yet secured Sporting's Viktor Gyokeres. They're supposed to be going big. Mikel Arteta is known to 'love' Isak and see him as ideal.
A sudden switch makes sense… until you come up against the pure logic of the numbers.
Arsenal don't currently have the budget to go for Isak. This is, after all, a club who have been haggling over differences of £5m in add-ons for Gyokeres. Are we really to expect they suddenly jump £70m more?
The greater intrigue is that Arsenal do have the PSR headroom. Many just put this down to the ownership's willingness to spend, and how much funds are released. The Kroenkes do prefer their club to be fully responsible, with no risk in this regard. Other sources would describe that as overt conservatism, and even frugality, when the club has a huge chance to do something historic. Their wage bill has - up until recently - been around £60m less than even Liverpool's, let alone City.
That is known to have led to some frustration. Arteta has also strongly and successfully argued to push the budget out this summer, which is why some well-placed sources think it highly unlikely they will go out any more.
And yet this might really be the difference, between glory now, as well potential riches for the future.
It's hard not to think that Arteta should mimic Sir Alex Ferguson and strongly make the case to the board that this is one of those rare players who can change everything; that this is one you do change plans for. That's all the more pronounced when the champions, Liverpool, might yet get him. It's not just about what you do.
Many at Newcastle will of course be looking at such discussion and be aghast. He's still their player, and looks a long way off going anywhere.
There, however, it is certainly hard not to agree with one thing Howe said. It's difficult 'to give 100% clarity' on this.
The nature of the market means Howe is almost certainly right that Isak stays for the start of the season. But the end of the window? The market would still need to drastically change.
It only makes Saturday's developments more confusing.
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