Philippines vague on U.S. missile deployments, but clear on one thing

Japan Times

02-06-2025

The Philippines has taken a deliberately vague tack about deploying powerful U.S. weapons on its territory that could put nearby Chinese forces at risk — but Manila is clear about one thing: It has already secured the funds to buy its own midrange missiles.
Asked whether Manila is planning to keep or purchase some of the advanced U.S. weapon systems deployed for this year's Balikatan military exercises, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro told The Japan Times that the country would maintain a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' on the matter.
Strategic ambiguity, which is employed by both the U.S. in its policy toward Taiwan and France in its nuclear weapons strategy, is the practice of being intentionally unclear about a policy, strategy or position, creating uncertainty to either gain an advantage or deter potential adversaries without making explicit commitments.
In the case of the Philippines, Teodoro said he would follow such an approach with regard to the advanced Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and Typhon U.S. missile systems. Both have been deployed to the Southeast Asian nation, triggering a backlash from Beijing, which has repeatedly called for them to be removed, arguing that the Typhon, in particular, is a 'strategic' and 'offensive' system.
Manila has said that the deployment of a Typhon-like system, which can fire both Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles and SM-6 air defense missiles, is not meant for offensive purposes.
While Philippine officials have indicated the Typhon would stay in the country indefinitely after being deployed for joint exercises last year, no such statement has been made about whether the NMESIS anti-ship weapon will remain on the island of Batanes, between the Philippines' Luzon island and Taiwan, where it was used in this year's Balikatan exercises.
Imagery released by the U.S. military indicates that the NMESIS system was still there as of Sunday, as a part of separate military exercises.
The U.S. military's Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) is deployed during joint military exercises with Philippine forces on the Philippine island of Batanes on May 25. |
U.S. MARINE CORPS
This suggests that China's repeated calls to remove these systems are unlikely to be heeded anytime soon, as Manila not only trains its soldiers on the Typhon launcher but also plans to acquire its own midrange system.
'The definite thing is that we do need capabilities of such sort, and they are already part of our shopping list,' Teodoro said in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore over the weekend.
Manila, he added, already has the necessary funding to acquire its own midrange capability (MRC).
'We do have the funding because, on a cost basis, it's much cheaper than the rest of the items in our Re-Horizon 3 program,' he said.
Last year, Manila approved a revised military upgrade initiative called Re-Horizon 3 that will reportedly see the country spend up to 2 trillion Philippine pesos ($35 billion) over the next decade. The move, the third and final stage of a plan that started in 2013 in response to Chinese activities in the South China Sea, is focused on acquiring items such as more ships, aircraft, weapons and radar systems.
'We are actively looking for it (the MRC),' the defense secretary said, noting that the purchase of such a modern system would require 'different levels of approval,' especially should Manila opt for the Typhon, which the U.S. has yet to sell to another country.
Teodoro's remarks come as a dispute over the South China Sea between China and the Philippines has turned particularly heated, with the resource-rich waters now the scene of regular ship collisions and rammings.
As new flashpoints, such as Sandy Cay, emerge in the waterway, Beijing has also stepped up its presence by deploying not only its coast guard but also military vessels and aircraft in a show of force that Teodoro likened to a mixed martial arts move to force an opponent to surrender.
'They're trying to gaslight the Philippines and coerce us into recognizing them or making us work to resolve a dispute under their rules, and I think it's just like a submission hold in MMA,' Teodoro said.
While Beijing 'doesn't have a chokehold yet, they're slowly trying to get there,' he added.
In one pointed example, the Chinese Navy conducted 'combat readiness patrols' near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, a rocky islet in the South China Sea controlled by Beijing but claimed by Manila, as defense chiefs from across the globe gathered in Singapore for the Shangri-La conference.
Teodoro said that while Manila still has a range of other tools in its kit, including stepped-up maritime patrols with its multilateral partners, Philippine forces 'have always been stretched thin,' which is why the main focus should be on boosting deterrence as soon as possible.
This not only includes procuring advanced missile systems, but also 'improving the foundational infrastructure for our platforms and our logistics systems, which have long been neglected,' Teodoro said.
The county's modernization push also includes increasing the sophistication of its asymmetric arsenal as well as its unmanned platforms and cybersystems along with enhancing the Philippine forces' maritime and air domain awareness.
But help is already on its way.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (left) shakes hands with Philippines defense chief Gilberto Teodoro before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore on Friday. |
AFP-JIJI
On Saturday, the defense chiefs of 'the Squad' grouping, which brings together Japan, Australia, the U.S. and the Philippines, agreed to expand the scope and frequency of South China Sea maritime patrols with more like-minded partners, while further synchronizing defense investments in the Philippines and boosting its cybersecurity capabilities.
They also agreed to explore planning joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities in the East and South China seas as they ramp up information-sharing in an effort to establish "a common operating picture" in the region.
Teodoro said the grouping has made 'much progress' since it was formed in 2023, signaling its expansion — possibly to include countries such as India and New Zealand — would be something the Philippines welcomes.
'I think the Squad is an open-architecture security grouping based on a common thread,' he said. 'I can't speak for the others, but my feeling is that it is open to those that are aligned with the common goals and those with Philippine goals, as the grouping is centered on Philippine resilience.'
The remarks come after Ely Ratner, a U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs under former President Joe Biden, made waves for suggesting in an essay in Foreign Affairs magazine that regional allies and partners should reconsider transforming the 'informal' U.S.-led minilateral defense initiatives into a collective defense pact.
Asked about the possibility, Teodoro said that while it remained early, such a proposal would be one 'model of what the Squad may evolve into.'
For the time being, though, he said, efforts should focus on strengthening the Squad, making it more interoperable and delivering more concrete results.
'Then let's see where it goes.'