The Trump era, phase two

Politico

11-07-2025

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Zack Stanton and Megan Messerly talk about the new phase of Donald Trump's presidency and what we can tell from the very public fights he picks.
Happy Friday. Zack Stanton here as another whirlwind work week draws to a close. Get in touch.
YOUR FRIDAY LONGREAD: 'The Devil on Mike Lee's Shoulder,' by Samuel Benson for POLITICO Magazine: 'The Utah senator's online persona has further damaged his already frayed relationship with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.'
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Your Friday watch: In a new clip from an interview with Playbook's Dasha Burns for 'The Conversation,' border czar Tom Homan revealed that he is unsure of the status of eight men deported to South Sudan — including their treatment and whether or not they're being detained there. Watch the clip on YouTube
Homan defended the Trump administration's decision to deport migrants to nations including South Sudan and El Salvador — despite those countries' history of human rights abuses, and despite the migrants' lack of connections to those places — saying that the arrangements are crucial to the president's mass deportation agenda. The full episode drops on Sunday. Read more from POLITICO's Myah Ward and Kyle Cheney
In today's Playbook …
— The page turns to a new chapter of Trump's presidency.
— Texas' status as a high-stakes gamble for Republicans deepens.
— How Trump continues to run as an outsider despite being elected president.
DRIVING THE DAY
PHASE TWO BEGINS: The start of any presidency begins with an acknowledgement that the clock is already running. Every new administration enjoys a window of time during which it can pursue one or two signature legislative wins before Washington, as if driven by mainspring, turns its gaze to the coming midterm elections.
What happens in that window are the sort of household-name accomplishments each administration can boast. For Joe Biden, it was Build Back Better, which passed in fall 2021. For first-term Trump, it was the 2017 tax cuts he signed in December of that year. For Barack Obama, it was the Recovery Act and then — because he came into office with such large Democratic majorities in both houses — the Affordable Care Act, which spilled over into 2010. For second-term Trump, it is the One Big, Beautiful Bill.
And that's that. The window has closed. 'The White House won't push for another big legislative package between now and next November,' The Atlantic's Jonathan Lemire, Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker report, citing 'five White House aides and outside advisers.'
The White House vibe shift: 'It really does feel like we're at this inflection point in the administration,' POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly tells me on this morning's Playbook Podcast. 'Especially this week, I feel it in my conversations moreso than I did before — the looming midterm elections just hanging over us and pressing down in a way that it really hasn't because we've just been so focused on this 'big, beautiful bill.''
Subtly but unmistakably, we have entered a new phase of the Trump presidency.
That does not mean they've thrown in the proverbial towel on their policy agenda. We are in the midst of a MAGA makeover of Washington (more on that in a bit), and the president's trade and immigration agenda will be front-and-center in the administration's messaging (more on that, too, shortly).
But it does mean that the midterms are occupying increasing mental bandwidth at 1600 Penn.
Today, the president visits Texas to tour flood-ravaged Kerrville (12:20 p.m.) and meet with the first responders (2:10 p.m.) whose heroism has been a spark of hope in an otherwise grim week of news there. But as Trump visits, the midterms won't be far from his mind — especially as the state is playing an increasingly vital role in his designs to hold a 2027 congressional majority.
In the House: This week, Trump has reportedly upped the pressure on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to further gerrymander the Lone Star State in an attempt to eke out a few more GOP seats and help the party cling to its origami-thin House majority. Abbott, responding to this, has teed up the issue for a central role in a coming special session of the state legislature — even as a number of Republican incumbents privately hate the idea and worry it could backfire.
That push is risky. 'The 2021 map was drawn for incumbent protection in a wave year, which could also be the case next year if historical trends hold up,' writes Puck's Abby Livingston, who knows Texas politics better than just about anyone in D.C. 'To pick up new seats, Republican voters will need to be pulled from safe Republican seats to redden currently Democratic districts.'
The math: 'If Republicans go after three seats this way, the changes can probably be made with little fanfare and concentrate mostly on South Texas, which is trending toward the G.O.P. anyway,' Livingston writes. 'But if they go big — aiming for, say, five seats — the lines could make reelection much more difficult for Republican incumbents in Houston and Dallas.' (As the saying goes: Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.)
And then there's the Senate, where Dems' hopes to retake the chamber seemed like little more than a pipe dream until recent days — and where a spate of news over the last 24 hours has prompted very real questions about just how confident Republicans should feel about their majority.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune tells the National Review's Audrey Fahlberg that he and the president spoke on Wednesday about how Trump can 'be a difference maker' in key Senate campaigns. In the sitdown with NR, Thune made mention of 'some interesting situations, like Texas' — which is perhaps a polite phrase for the position Republicans are in as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn trails primary challenger AG Ken Paxton in polls. Washington Republicans, of course, fear that Paxton may be the uniquely perfect candidate to oust Cornyn in the primary and then lose to a Democrat in the general.
Paxton bombshell: Yesterday, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton, Ken's wife, announced that 'after 38 years of marriage,' she has 'filed for divorce on biblical grounds.' 'I have earnestly pursued reconciliation,' she wrote in a statement. 'But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.' (For his part, AG Paxton made it sound more amicable in his own statement: 'After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives,' he wrote.)
What exactly happened? The senator alleged in her divorce filing that her husband had committed adultery and said they haven't lived together in over a year, per the Texas Tribune. But it sure seems like another shoe may be about to drop, given the speed with which Washington Republicans have moved to condemn Paxton.
'What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,' NRSC comms director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement. 'No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family.' … Senate Leadership Fund executive director Alex Latcham posted simply, 'Ezekiel 16:33,' a reference to a Bible passage about 'harlots' or 'whores,' depending on your translation.
Could this doom Paxton's Senate bid? Perhaps. But if we're talking simply about an affair between consenting adults, the Texas primary electorate of Trump's Republican Party has a very different attitude about these types of issues than the kinder, gentler GOP of the Bush era.
But the GOP's woes don't stop at Texas.
There's growing concern that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) might call it quits, as POLITICO's Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade report. '[T]hree people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions said there is rising concern among fellow Senate Republicans that Ernst will retire rather than run for reelection, giving Republicans another seat to defend next fall.' (That said, if she does bow out, there's a strong Republican waiting in the wings: Rep. Ashley Hinson.)
None of which is to say that Democrats' path to a Senate majority is easy. But a plausible-if-unlikely path exists: If Roy Cooper flips the North Carolina seat getting vacated by Thom Tillis and if Paxton beats Cornyn then loses to a Democrat and if Ernst bows out and Dems flip the seat and then make one other shoot-the-moon pickup (Maine? Ohio?) … it could happen.
And then there's this: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tells NYT's Annie Karni that Trump's megabill has boosted Democratic odds — though, honestly, what else is he going to say? — and offered a preview of the message he'll be hammering into his Senate recruits: 'The three issues we're going to most campaign on: costs, jobs, and health care.'
But for our money, the most insightful quote in that article came not from Schumer, but from Jesse Stinebring, chief executive of Blue Rose Research, who puts a finer point on the longer-term political liability for Republicans, which has been glossed over in some of the coverage of the Medicaid cuts in the reconciliation package.
'What Republicans have forgotten is that the trifecta they have right now is a result of gains they have made with lower-income individuals, many of the same people who are Medicaid recipients,' Stinebring said. 'Their coalition has become much more working-class, and they are still operating under this model where these types of actions wouldn't have political consequences for them — and they absolutely will have consequences for them.'
All of which means that this next phase of the Trump era is going to be vital for Democrats, too: They need to litigate the megabill and hope to make Trump's signature legislative accomplishment a political albatross. Historical trends may be on their side; it's unclear yet if voters will be.
THE MAGA REVOLUTION
THE CONFLICT IS THE POINT: In an era with low trust in institutions, widespread frustration with politics and deep cynicism about Washington, how do you continue to win when you're the party already in power? By continuing to brand yourself as the outsiders — and picking fights that try to underscore that.
More than most politicians, Trump innately grasps a reality that drives our modern moment: Attention means power, and conflict generally means attention. Trump's ongoing MAGA revolution in Washington has concrete policy goals, but it has an overarching political one, too: driving a message that frames their actions time and again as those of outsiders going to war against the status quo.
That's the throughline that connects a seemingly disparate array of stories right now.
VS. federal workers: As soon as today, the State Department will begin firing hundreds of employees, CNN's Jennifer Hansler reports. … Meanwhile, the Justice Department is 'firing and pushing out employees … often with no explanation or warning,' contributing to a climate of fear across the department, per WaPo's Perry Stein. … And the FBI 'has significantly stepped up the use of' polygraph tests, NYT's Adam Goldman reports, including deploying them to ask 'senior employees whether they have said anything negative about' Director Kash Patel. The Times writes that it's part of a 'broader crackdown on news leaks, reflecting, to a degree, Mr. Patel's acute awareness of how he is publicly portrayed.'
VS. undocumented immigrants: Federal immigration agents 'carried out immigration sweeps at two Southern California cannabis farms,' the LA Times reports, 'prompting a heated standoff between authorities and several hundred protesters at a Ventura County site that resulted in several arrests and injuries.' During the raid, federal forces deployed tear gas against the demonstrators, per KTLA. (More of these types of confrontations could come in the months ahead, given the funding bump for immigration enforcement in the megabill.) … The administration also announced new efforts to cut off undocumented immigrants from being able to participate in Head Start, the federally funded preschool program, AP's Annie Ma reports.
VS. medical professionals: 'The Justice Department has issued subpoenas demanding confidential patient information from more than 20 doctors and hospitals that provide gender-related treatments to minors,' report NYT's Azeen Ghorayshi and Glenn Thrush. 'Most of the subpoenas … attempt to pierce powerful federal confidentiality protections for patients and their medical providers.'
VS. states run by Democrats: The DOJ 'announced Thursday that its Civil Rights Division is investigating the state of Minnesota for possible hiring discrimination' for policies aimed at boosting the hiring of underrepresented minority populations, POLITICO's Jacob Wendler reports. (Minnesota's governor is, of course, 2024 Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz.)
VS. anyone connected to Jan. 6 prosecutions: This week, the DOJ fired Patty Hartman, a 17-year veteran of the department and the 'fourth person connected to the agency's work on the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots to be terminated in the past month,' per CBS' Scott MacFarlane. Notably, Hartman is not a prosecutor: she 'worked on the District of Columbia U.S. Attorney's Office public affairs team that distributed news releases about the more than 1,500 Jan. 6 criminal prosecutions.'
THE DOGE DAYS ARE OVER: Less than six months into the Trump era, and the once-feared DOGE crew is now 'shell of its former self, owing to departures, lawsuits, bureaucratic roadblocks and, crucially, the loss of its chainsawer-in-chief: [Elon] Musk,' POLITICO's Sophia Cai and Daniel Lippman report.
Among the departures: Steve Davis, who operationally led DOGE; Nicole Hollander, who led the effort to shrink the government's footprint; Brad Smith, who led the DOGE team at HHS; Chris Stanley, a Musk aide who helped install Starlink satellites on the roof of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building; Katie Miller, DOGE's comms director; Amanda Scales, former chief of staff at OPM; DOGE's chief counsel James Burnham, and Tom Krause, who served as fiscal assistant secretary of the Treasury.
BEST OF THE REST
A FIRST FOR TRUMP: In a momentous shift, Trump will send weapons to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority — a power frequently invoked by Biden but which Trump has not yet employed in his presidency, Reuters' Mike Stone reports. Though a decision on the exact equipment that will be sent has yet to be made, it could include 'defensive Patriot missiles and offensive medium-range rockets.'
ELBOWS UP: The U.S. will impose a 35 percent tariff on Canadian goods starting next month, Trump said yesterday in an announcement that 'came in the midst of active trade negotiations between the two countries,' notes POLITICO's Seb Starcevic. Goods compliant with the USMCA trade deal will be exempt — at least for now, WSJ reports.
In explaining the move, Trump said Canada has failed to adequately stanch the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. In response, Canadian PM Mark Carney said in a statement that Canada 'has made vital progress to stop the scourge of fentanyl in North America,' and reiterated his commitment to work with the U.S. to 'save lives.'
ABOUT THAT 'OBLITERATION': 'Some of Iran's Enriched Uranium Survived Attacks, Israeli Official Says,' by NYT's David Sanger: 'Israel has concluded that some of Iran's underground stockpile of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium survived American and Israeli attacks last month and may be accessible to Iranian nuclear engineers.' But 'any attempts by Iran to recover it would almost certainly be detected — and there would be time to attack the facilities again.'
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cash dash: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) raised $1.1 million and ended the second quarter with $5.9 million cash on hand, Playbook's Adam Wren reports. Young is not up for reelection until 2028.
SEE YOU IN COURT: Mahmoud Khalil, the prominent Palestinian activist and former Columbia grad student, is suing the Trump administration for $20 million in damages, alleging he was 'falsely imprisoned, maliciously prosecuted and smeared as an antisemite as the government sought to deport him over his prominent role in campus protests,' AP's Jake Offenhartz reports.
SHOT: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said of Zohran Mamdani: 'I'm not a voter in New York City, so I have no dog in that fight. And everything that I've read on him, I don't really agree with virtually any of it, politically. So that's just where I'm at as a Democrat. So he's not even a Democrat, honestly.' Watch the clip
Chaser: 'Fetterman and Mamdani used the same ad firm, started by Bernie vets,' Semafor's David Weigel notes.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
TV TONIGHT — PBS' 'Washington Week': Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Ashley Parker, Tarini Parti and Nancy Youssef.
SUNDAY SO FAR …
POLITICO 'The Conversation with Dasha Burns': Tom Homan.
Fox News 'Sunday Morning Futures': Speaker Mike Johnson … Kevin Warsh … Carter Page … retired Gen. Jack Keane … Kevin McCarthy.
NBC 'Meet the Press': DHS Secretary Kristi Noem … Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Panel: Adrienne Elrod, Sahil Kapur, Tyler Pager and Marc Short.
FOX 'Fox News Sunday': Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) … DHS Secretary Kristi Noem … Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Legal panel: Tom Dupree and Andy McCarthy. Panel: Marc Thiessen, Francesca Chambers, Josh Kraushaar and Juan Williams.
NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) … Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.). Panel: George Will, David Weigel, Julie Mason and Julia Manchester.
CBS 'Face the Nation': Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) … Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.).
MSNBC 'The Weekend': Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) … Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.).
CNN 'State of the Union': Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). Panel: David Urban, Faiz Shakir, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) and Kristen Soltis Anderson.
ABC 'This Week': Pete Gaynor and Deanne Criswell. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Sarah Isgur and Neera Tanden.
TALK OF THE TOWN
Elon Musk unfollowed the X accounts of Katie Miller, Mike Lee and Karoline Leavitt.
Nick Adams, a self-described 'alpha male' personality on X, is Trump's pick to serve as ambassador to Malaysia.
'Tiger King' Joe Exotic is seeking a pardon from Trump.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Stan Baker, Who Played a Key Role in Bringing the First Civil Unions to the U.S., Dies at 79,' by WSJ's Chris Kornelis
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — The 'Queer Eye' remake has begun production on its final season — and it's in D.C., Netflix announced. Let us know who you think needs a makeover.
BOOK CLUB — Abby Phillip is releasing her first book, 'A Dream Deferred: Jesse Jackson and the Fight for Black Political Power' ($30.99), on Oct. 28. It examines Jackson, his two presidential campaigns and their impact.
OUT AND ABOUT — NobleReach, a nonprofit that helps to place recent graduates at federal, state and local agencies, held a graduation ceremony for its inaugural class of scholars yesterday at the Meridian International Center. SPOTTED: Brynt Parmeter, Justin Fanelli, Bert Kaufman and Ben Schwartz.
— Center Forward hosted its annual 'Off the Record' reception with House and Senate comms staffers at the Wharf last night SPOTTED: Cori Kramer, Riley Kilburg, Kaily Grabemann, Josh Sorbe, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Marianna Sotomayor, Kristen Hawn, Stacey Daniels, Mason Devers, Mary Ellen McIntire, Dylan Jones, Louie Kahn, Devin Dwyer, Justin Gomez, Niels Lesniewski, Stephen DeLeo, Sam Sweeney, Eric Fejer, Perry Mains, Elizabeth St. Onge, Rosie Wilson and Renata Miller.
MEDIA MOVES — WaPo is adding Tara Copp as a Pentagon correspondent and Noah Robertson to cover congressional national security committees. Copp most recently has been a national security reporter at the AP. Robertson most recently has been a Pentagon correspondent at Defense News.
TRANSITIONS — Evan Wolff is now a partner at Akin and co-head of its cybersecurity, privacy and data protection practice. He previously was a partner at Crowell & Moring. … Sam Mayper is joining M&T Bank as SVP of federal government relations. He previously was VP at the Independent Community Bankers of America. … Nick Weinstein is joining Cygnal as a pollster and principal. He previously was political director at the Republican Attorneys General Association and is a Daniel Cameron and Tom Reed alum.
ENGAGED — Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) proposed to Brooke Singman, a political correspondent and reporter for Fox News Digital, during a picnic in Central Park on June 22. That was followed by afternoon tea at The Plaza and a dinner later at her favorite restaurant, Balthazar. They met the day Trump made his campaign stop at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania, and reconnected in January at Bistrot du Coin: She brought her laptop, thinking it could become an interview opportunity, but instead it turned into their first date. Pic … Another pic
— Ashley Forrester, director of strategic comms for Samsung Electronics America, and David Jones, co-founder of Capitol Counsel, got engaged Wednesday at Lake Como, Italy. They met at a mutual friend's birthday party several years ago. Pic
— Erin Drummy, a policy adviser for the Senate Steering Committee, and Mike Hardy, a software engineer for Systems Planning Analysis, got engaged on July 3. Hardy popped the question in his hometown Warren, New Jersey, after the megabill delayed things by a week. The couple met through mutual friends in D.C. Pic
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Caroline Welles, executive director of the First Ask, and Harrison Hart, an associate at DC Advisory, this week welcomed Hugo Edward Welles-Hart. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) … Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) … Scott Graves … former Education Secretary Miguel Cardona (5-0) … Garrett Graff … Chris Maloney of Black Rock Group … Sandy Marks … Josh Wachs of Wachs Strategies … Emily Benavides … Matt Lahr of Sen. Todd Young's (R-Ind.) office … Nora Connors … Michael Wong of the Bank Policy Institute … KayAnn Schoeneman … Paige Rusher of Seven Letter … Anne Sokolov … Ishmael Abuabara of Rep. Joaquin Castro's (D-Texas) office … Joe Wall … Chris Vaeth … Ali Schmitz of PBS NewsHour … Stephen Hostelley … Jamie Stiehm … Bailey Hansen of the Herald Group … POLITICO's Sophie Read and Faith Mitchell … Katie Sokolov … Tom Pinkh of Sole Strategies … Urmila Venugopalan of the MPA … Page Gardner
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