The Next AI Frontier? The Trades Quietly Ditching Google And Yelp

Forbes

7 hours ago

Workers attach siding to a house at a new home construction site in Trappe, Maryland, on October 28, ... More 2022. - New home sales in the US dipped in September, official data showed on October 26, 2022, as worsening affordability nudges ownership further out of reach for many. Sales soared during the coronavirus pandemic as Americans snapped up homes on the back of bargain mortgage rates, but the sector has cooled with the US Federal Reserve hiking lending rates as it fights to bring down surging inflation. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
While headlines remain dominated by artificial intelligence breakthroughs in software development, financial modeling, and enterprise productivity, another AI revolution is taking shape in a less glamorous—but far more essential—corner of the economy: skilled trades.
Plumbers, HVAC technicians, cleaners, electricians, and general contractors—who collectively support over 10 million jobs in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—are increasingly turning away from legacy lead-generation platforms like Google Ads, Yelp, and Angi. Their frustrations are no longer anecdotal. Across Reddit threads, industry forums, and small business associations, the message is clear: The traditional online advertising ecosystem no longer works for service providers on the ground.
'Yelp's advertising model is broken—high cost per click, low-quality leads, and zero accountability. It feels like we're paying to compete with ourselves.' as written on a popular subreddit thread: Reddit, r/smallbusiness.
This widespread disillusionment is driving demand for a new generation of tools—ones that prioritize automation, transparency, and profitability over pay-to-play exposure—and increasingly, are powered by AI. And venture capital is flowing to meet it. Volca's $5.5 million seed round led by Pathlight Ventures puts a new spin on solving this market challenge, following funding for PipeDreams with $25 million, NiceJob with $3 million, and Netic raising $20 million.
A Market Primed for Unprecedented Growth
The U.S. home services market reached $90.63 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a robust 7.2% CAGR to reach $181.64 billion by 2034, according to Expert Market Research. But that's just the beginning—the broader global home services market is expected to reach $1.03 trillion by 2029, expanding at a CAGR of 10.5%.
U.S. homeowner spending on maintenance and renovation is projected to reach $526 billion by Q1 2026, according to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. The remodeling sector, despite some recent cooling, is still expected to reach $509 billion in 2025. Yet digital adoption in this space remains surprisingly limited—a 2023 Thumbtack survey found that nearly 70% of service providers still rely primarily on word-of-mouth or repeat business rather than digital ads or marketplaces to acquire new customers.
Even more striking is the digital transformation within this space. The online on-demand home services segment alone is projected to explode from its current size to $2.3 trillion by 2034, growing at an unprecedented 19.7% CAGR. This represents a fundamental shift in how Americans access and pay for home services.
This comes as search is becoming a closed loop: Google synthesizes an answer, sometimes even auto-calls a business, and the user never visits a directory—or a contractor's site. Zero‑click behavior isn't new, but AI is accelerating it. For intermediaries that thrived on click-throughs—Yelp included—the squeeze is real; something Yelp acknowledges in its SEC filings.
And as the unfiltered Reddit posts make clear, pros are tired of paying to rent attention.
The Confidence Factor: 77% of Professionals Expect Growth
Recent industry surveys reveal remarkable optimism among trades professionals. According to a November 2024 report by HouseCall Pro, 77% of service professionals expect their business to grow over the next year, with 40% anticipating growth of more than 10%.
This confidence stems from what industry experts call the "indispensable nature" of the home services sector—homes represent the largest asset most people own, and trades professionals provide essential maintenance and improvement services that cannot be outsourced or delayed indefinitely.
"Having a strong referral rewards program has been a game-changer for our business,' said Shafer Heating and Cooling (SH&C) CEO Nathan Shafer. 'Volca's platform makes it incredibly easy to track, manage, and reward those who refer us—turning word-of-mouth into one of our most powerful growth tools.'
The Evolving Competitive Landscape
The broader landscape of home services tech is rapidly diversifying. Here's how different players are approaching the problem:
Unlike lead marketplaces that charge per connection or click—often regardless of conversion—entrants like Volca, ResponsiBid and NiceJob focus on pipeline ownership. Their pitch: help businesses generate, nurture, and close leads from their own customer base instead of relying on expensive, opaque third-party platforms.
Volca's flagship product is an SMS-based referral system that uses artificial intelligence to automatically extract key details from text messages with homeowners, match them to the right business systems within a CRM, aid in automated marketing, and close the loop with secure payments for end to end referral programs. Early adopters have reported up to $70,000 per month in new revenue within six months of implementation, with some customers exceeding $160,000 in total attributed sales. But it's far from alone in this rapidly evolving space.
This shift echoes larger trends in consumer behavior. Trust in online reviews has declined, with a 2024 BrightLocal study finding that 42% of consumers believe they've seen fake reviews on platforms like Yelp and Google. Meanwhile, referral-based trust remains extremely high—over 80% of consumers say they trust recommendations from friends and family more than any form of advertising, according to Nielsen's "Trust in Advertising" global report.
List of companies providing services in this space
AI as an Enabler—Not a Disruption
The application of AI in the trades represents a fundamentally different approach than the automation anxiety plaguing white-collar work. While McKinsey projects that 92 million jobs could be displaced by AI by 2030, the World Economic Forum simultaneously forecasts 170 million new roles emerging. In skilled trades specifically, AI functions as an augmentation tool rather than a replacement technology.
Research from CS Recruiting emphasizes this collaborative future: "Artificial Intelligence is creating a boom of more skilled trades jobs, not less, all while making the environments these folks work in more productive, safe, and efficient. The future of skilled trades is not about humans versus machines, but a collaborative environment where experienced workers leverage AI to enhance their capabilities."
This augmentation approach is already manifesting in practical applications. AI-powered robots and drones can perform site surveying, structural inspection, and precision tasks in construction, while human expertise remains essential for complex problem-solving, customer interaction, and quality control. The manufacturing robotics market supporting skilled trades is predicted to grow at a 9.1% CAGR between 2021 and 2026.
Volca's AI isn't trying to automate service delivery or customer acquisition through abstract scoring systems. Instead, it works in the background to extract insights from CRM data, personalize outreach, and track referrals end-to-end. It's "AI as infrastructure"—empowering time-strapped contractors to focus on the job while the platform quietly grows their business. Not quietly: Early adopters have reported up to $70,000 per month in new revenue within six months of implementation, with some customers exceeding $160,000 in total attributed sales.
Other startups are taking similar approaches. ResponsiBid automates bidding for window cleaning and pressure washing services. Schedulicity uses machine learning to optimize service appointments. And ServiceM8 offers automated invoicing and communication tailored for mobile contractors.
Home Services Al Companies Positioning Matrix, Positioning based on operational scope vs. customer ... More acquisition focus
The Reality Check: AI Adoption Challenges
However, the path to widespread AI adoption in skilled trades faces significant headwinds that market projections may underestimate. Recent research from BCG reveals that 74% of companies struggle to achieve and scale value from AI initiatives, with around 70% of implementation challenges stemming from people- and process-related issues, 20% attributed to technology problems, and only 10% involving AI algorithms.
The construction and home services sectors face particular barriers. Manufacturing, information services, and healthcare companies report an AI adoption rate of about 12%. Conversely, the construction and retail sectors are at the lower end — with only 4% of companies in these areas taking advantage of AI technology. This stark difference suggests that the optimistic projections for AI adoption in trades may be overly ambitious.
A comprehensive survey from Deloitte and Autodesk identified three primary barriers to AI adoption in construction-related industries: A lack of digital skills among employees (cited by 42% of businesses), with this barrier more likely to impact large companies. Additionally, barriers to AI adoption include defining an AI operational model, poor data quality (a concern for 56% of companies), and insufficient employee buy-in.
For small trades businesses operating on thin margins, these challenges are magnified. Many contractors lack the technical infrastructure, dedicated IT support, or time to properly implement and maintain AI systems. The promise of automated referrals and CRM integration may sound appealing, but the reality of onboarding, training staff, and troubleshooting technical issues often proves overwhelming for businesses already stretched thin.
While the success of this approach is far from guaranteed, early adopters report impressive revenue gains. Of course, what's next is establishing just how replicable these results are across a fragmented industry with wildly varying business sizes, tech maturity, and customer bases. Critics argue that referral automation tools, no matter how smart, may struggle to generate sustained volume in markets where personal relationships and community trust have long trumped digital systems. Proponents, for their part, say these new digital tools are simply providing an accelerated means to that same end: satisfied customers sharing their positive experiences. The skyrocketing popularity of platforms made for home services pros like ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, and Jobber, may be an indicator of a sector that is ready and eager to adopt modern tools.
Small Business Technology Adoption: A Sobering Reality
The broader context of small business technology adoption adds another layer of complexity to the AI revolution narrative. While large enterprises may have the resources to experiment with AI tools, small trades businesses operate under different constraints. Despite the increasing adoption of digital technology, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) continue to lag behind larger firms.
This technology gap isn't just about access to capital—it's about operational priorities. A contractor spending 60 hours a week on job sites may not have the bandwidth to evaluate, test, and implement new AI tools, regardless of their potential benefits. The "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mentality remains strong among many trades professionals who have built successful businesses through traditional methods.
However, when it comes to acquiring customers and driving revenue, the vast majority of home services businesses are already actively paying for multiple of the following services to grow: advertising, social media, lead aggregators, reviews, etc. Even more, after labor, marketing ranks the largest expense at a home services business, representing 10-30% of ARR. With this in mind, the case could be made that tools like Volca, which are able to effectively consolidate all of these needs into one platform, have the potential to alleviate tool fatigue, time spent managing tech services, and ultimately, the financial burden of trying to keep up with all the different channels to grow a loyal customer base.
As tech-savvy millennials replace Boomers and Gen X as home services business owners, we can also expect willingness to engage with new technology to shift toward eager adoption.
The challenge is compounded by the fact that 56% of companies cite poor data quality as a major concern when implementing AI systems. Many small trades businesses lack the structured data collection processes necessary to feed AI algorithms effectively. Customer information might be scattered across handwritten notes, basic spreadsheets, and informal text messages—hardly the clean, organized datasets that AI systems require to function optimally.
Market Transformation Drivers
Several macroeconomic factors are accelerating this transformation:
Digital Media Influence: According to Technavio's recent analysis, the increasing influence of digital media is a primary driver of home services market growth, with the global market expected to grow by $6.54 trillion from 2024-2028.
Homeownership Trends: The demand for home services is closely linked to rising homeownership rates, with homeowners increasingly seeking professional services for maintenance, renovation, and improvement projects.
Labor Market Efficiency: AI systems are improving job matching and reducing both unemployment and under-employment by better connecting workers with opportunities that utilize their specific skillsets.
Consumer Behavior Shifts: The convenience economy is driving demand for on-demand services, with consumers increasingly willing to pay premium prices for immediate, high-quality service delivery.
Challenges Ahead
Despite this momentum, the path to widespread AI adoption in the trades faces significant friction. Many business owners remain wary of technology promises after years of poor results from Google Ads, Yelp, and SEO consultants. Others lack the time, technical fluency, or staffing to trial and adopt new systems—especially when word-of-mouth still "works well enough."
Cost remains another concern. While platforms like Volca promise strong ROI, many small businesses operate on thin margins and are risk-averse when it comes to new expenditures. The key differentiator for successful platforms will be demonstrating fast time-to-value, seamless onboarding, and results that speak louder than sales representatives.
The Skills Gap Reality
The optimistic narrative around AI adoption in trades often overlooks a fundamental challenge: the digital skills gap. A lack of digital skills among employees is cited by 42% of businesses as a barrier to AI adoption, and this challenge is particularly acute in trades where workers have traditionally relied on hands-on experience rather than digital tools.
Consider the average HVAC technician or plumber who has built their expertise over decades of practical experience. Asking them to suddenly embrace AI-powered CRM systems, automated messaging platforms, and digital analytics requires not just new tools, but an entirely new way of thinking about their business. The learning curve isn't just technical—it's cultural.
This skills gap creates a potential two-tier system within the trades industry. Larger companies with resources for training and dedicated administrative staff may successfully adopt AI tools and gain competitive advantages. Meanwhile, smaller operators who built their businesses on personal relationships and traditional methods may find themselves increasingly at a disadvantage, despite potentially providing superior service quality.
What Comes Next
The transformation of the trades through AI isn't a flashy disruption story—it's an infrastructure story. Like the electrification of manufacturing or the digitization of accounting, it's about applying technology to make foundational industries more profitable, resilient, and scalable without overcomplicating the core work.
"Our customers aren't trying to build unicorns," said Volca co-founder Brendan Kazanjian. "They're trying to build great businesses to support their families and service their communities. Volca gives them the software to do that on their own terms."
With the U.S. home services market valued at over $657 billion and experiencing rapid expansion, the integration of AI represents both an opportunity and a necessity. The companies that succeed will be those that understand the unique needs of trades professionals: tools that enhance rather than replace human expertise, platforms that provide ownership rather than dependency, and systems that deliver measurable results without requiring advanced technical knowledge.
However, the road to widespread adoption will likely be longer and more challenging than current projections suggest. The gap between enterprise-level AI adoption and the reality of small trades businesses remains significant. Success will depend not just on technological capability, but on addressing the fundamental barriers of skills, resources, and cultural change that define the trades industry.
The companies that ultimately succeed in this space will be those that recognize AI adoption in trades isn't just a technology challenge—it's a human challenge. They'll need to provide not just software, but education, support, and solutions that respect the existing strengths of traditional trades businesses while gradually introducing digital enhancement.
If the last decade of innovation was about optimizing the knowledge worker, the next one might just be about empowering the contractor. AI won't replace plumbers or HVAC technicians—but it might finally help them grow, compete, and thrive on their own terms in an increasingly digital economy.
The quiet revolution in America's trades is just beginning, and its impact may prove far more transformative than the flashier AI applications dominating today's headlines. But the timeline for this transformation may be measured in decades rather than years, and the path forward will require addressing fundamental challenges that go far beyond technology alone.