Germany, Ukraine's second biggest backer, is ready to play a larger role

The Hindu

3 days ago

Since June, the intensity of Russian attacks on Ukrainian territories has increased significantly, leading to a large number of civilian deaths. June 2025 recorded the highest civilian casualty since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. As per numbers by the UN Human Rights Mission in Ukraine, 232 people were killed and 1,343 were wounded.
On 30 June, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travelled to Kyiv to reiterate Germany's military, financial, economic and humanitarian support for Ukraine. 'In Ukraine, it will be decided whether our Europe remains a place where freedom and human dignity hold sway, or becomes a continent on which violence can be used to redraw borders,' said Mr. Wadephul.
This follows visits by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Berlin in May and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius to Kyiv in mid-June. Mr. Pistorius announced a total German military aid worth €9 billion for 2025.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Bundestag on July 9 said that all diplomatic means to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war had been exhausted. 'When a criminal regime openly questions another country's right to exist with military force and sets out to destroy the political order of freedom on the entire European continent, the federal government I lead will do everything in its power to prevent this,' said Mr. Merz.
Patrick Keller, the head of the Centre for Security and Defence at the Berlin-based German Society for Foreign Relations (DGAP), notes that Germany has been at the forefront in supporting Ukraine since 2022. However, he acknowledges that in the light of the increased Russian aggression, these efforts look insufficient.
'We have to continue to increase our efforts. With the change in the German government, there has been a new focus on defence and security policy overall. It is understood that the Ukrainian effort also serves as a deterrent for Europe in the era of an aggressive Russia,' said Mr. Keller.
Niklas Balbon, Research Fellow with the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi), a Berlin-based think tank, noted that while Germany has promised financial aid to Ukraine, the challenge is how soon Ukraine's weapons production can be scaled up.
Trump's flip-flop
Ever since U.S. President Donald Trump's infamous White House meeting with Ukraine's Mr. Zelenskyy in February this year, Europe has been on tenterhooks. The U.S. remains one of the largest members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but Mr. Trump has made it clear that European countries must increase their defence spending. Mr. Trump's views on Russian President Vladimir Putin have also gone from being positive following some 'respectful conversations' earlier this year to outright criticism in the last month.
Mr. Keller notes that one cannot change the fundamental attitude of the current state of affairs with the U.S. government, but can make the most of it.
'In the current situation, Mr. Trump is getting increasingly critical of Mr. Putin and is willing to support Ukraine in innovative ways. Europe has to jump at this opportunity. We really need to get going with increased capacity in Ukraine and helping them to produce weapons on their own. The German defence industry is more than ready to build in Ukraine and help them scale and build weapons-making factories,' said Mr. Keller.
Ukraine does produce close to 40% of the weapons it uses in the war at home, as of mid-2025, and U.S. support covers 30%. There are plans to increase domestic weapons production to 50% within the next six months, as per Mr. Zelenskyy. This is where Germany is expected to help out. In 2024, drones manufactured in Ukraine made up 96% of all unmanned aerial vehicles used in combat. Ukraine is approaching a capacity to make 4 million drones annually by this year.
Mr. Balbon notes that even though Europe would like to be more independent from the U.S., it does not have the capabilities to be more autonomous or produce the weapons needed in Ukraine quickly enough.
'European decision makers are thinking about how to game the U.S. administration to support Ukraine, while also allowing Mr. Trump to sell it as a victory to his voter base. The NATO countries buying weapons from the U.S. to donate to Ukraine is one such way,' said Mr. Balbon.
As per NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Britain, the Netherlands, and Canada are ready to buy weapons from the U.S. to be donated to Ukraine. The weapons include Patriot missile batteries and air defence systems, F-16 fighter jets, Howitzer artillery systems and more. Patriot is the world's most advanced air-defence system.
In May, Mr. Merz had said that there would be no range restrictions for weapons that would be delivered to Ukraine. However, Defence Minister Mr. Pistorius has said that Germany won't be providing Kyiv with the long-range Taurus cruise missiles that can strike targets that are 500 km away.
'If one looks at the Patriot systems, the U.S. has 60 ready, whereas Germany just has 4-6. It is a question of scale and timing, as it takes months to build them. If Ukraine needs these systems now, the most effective way is to buy them from the U.S.,' said Mr. Keller, noting that despite all the challenges posed by the Trump government, Europe cannot give the impression that it wants the U.S. out – it's in no one's interest.
Modern warfare
While Germany has announced billions in aid for helping Ukraine build weapons, experts say that investments have to be made in the right capabilities, keeping in mind the nature of future warfare.
'The warfare of the future will rely a lot on unmanned drones, AI technology, space-based systems and so on, so you would need a smart combination of various factors to succeed,' said Mr. Keller, noting that a large part of defence spending has to go to nimble industries and startups over large defence contractors.
German defence startups such as Helsing, Quantum Systems, Stark Defense have been at the forefront of providing drones to Ukraine alongside large defence players like Rheinmetall.
'It is important to keep in mind that the biggest innovator and driver in drone warfare is Ukraine. NATO countries are learning from this and playing catch-up. German military is also learning how Ukrainians are using drones, so there is a flow of knowledge in both directions,' said Mr. Balbon.
Political challenges
Even before the new government led by the coalition between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) assumed office, Germany had agreed on a €500 billion budget to be spent on civilian, climate, economic and defence needs. This special budget is over and above Germany's annual budget. For sectors like infrastructure and defence spending, Germany also exempted the conservative 'debt brake' that only allowed it to borrow 0.35% of its GDP.
'The lifting of the debt brake allows the German government to balance defence spending with other forms of spending when it comes to lifting the economy, improving domestic infrastructure and so on. In the ruling coalition, the CDU also wants to reform social spending and lower expenditure, as they argue that the German government is spending too much money. For Social Democrats, that's not in their interest. This is the key tension,' said Mr. Balbon.
'The increased defence spending isn't just key for Germany, but also largely for Europe, as it is a deterrence against Russia in the mid-term. The capabilities that are being acquired with this money, in theory and practice, can be sent to Ukraine as well,' said Mr. Keller.
But it does come with some political backlash from the far right and far left parties within Germany. According to Mr. Balbon, the far left parties are opposed to military spending in general, as they don't want Germany to invest in armed forces. 'The far right (namely, Alternative for Germany or AfD) are more interested and aligned ideologically with Russia. But there's a paradox – they want Germany to stop supporting Ukraine, but they also want a stronger German military whilst negating the very reason there is a need for larger German defence spending - namely, Russian aggression,' said Mr. Balbon.
'Given German history, there's an inherent criticism of militarisation and spending on military purposes as opposed to spending on social benefits, childcare, rent and so on. It will be important for defence planners and the industry representatives to get this mix right,' said Mr. Keller.
Neighbours perception
Given Germany's history, especially in the Second World War, it is generally wary of taking any leadership position within Europe. When it comes to Ukraine, Germany has been the second-largest supporter, after the US, in terms of weapons and aid. Germany's increased spending isn't scaring its neighbours but is being welcomed, noted Mr. Keller.
'Historically difficult neighbours, such as the Baltic countries, Poland, and the Czech Republic, feel that Germany is finally living up to its responsibility. It has prompted other wealthy EU countries, such as France, to increase their own defence spending,' said Mr. Keller.
Mr. Balbon concurs. 'The predominant fear in Europe and Germany is that at some point in the future, Russia will attack the Baltic countries. It's not so much a fear of massive on-ground invasion, but that Russia will try out some smaller level attack to see how NATO responds – whether it will trigger Article 5 or which members will come to help,' said Mr. Balbon.
Article 5 is a cornerstone of NATO, which states that an armed attack against any one NATO member is an attack against all. Meaning if any NATO member is attacked, other members are obligated to assist by 'such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force'.
At the recent NATO Summit in The Hague on June 24-25, all 32 member countries agreed to increase their defence spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Germany now has a permanent brigade (to have 5,000 troops by 2027) in Lithuania, which is one of the three Baltic countries bordering Russia. Estonia and Latvia are also expected to get a European multinational battlegroup presence.
Mr. Keller notes that there are no guarantees that all NATO members would fulfil the 5% target, given past record when many countries failed to fulfil the 2% target.
'Domestic political pressure and economic reasons may cause individual countries to lag behind. That should not happen, and it is the responsibility of wealthy countries to lead by example. This is why it is important for Germany to fulfil its obligations. There is a shared perception among the NATO members that they are stronger united,' said Mr. Keller.
(Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)