Donald Trump leveraging peacekeeping in tariff 'deals' across Asia

Australia Broadcast Center

5 days ago

Just days after imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, United States President Donald Trump has increased it by another 25 per cent.
The 50 per cent tariff is set to take effect in three weeks, and comes as Mr Trump pushes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
He has accused India of profiting from Russian oil and ignoring civilian deaths in Ukraine.
The announcement of further tariffs on India was the latest indication that Mr Trump has leveraged peacekeeping in trade deals.
"Trump is frustrated with Putin for not ending the war in Ukraine. Now India is facing this backlash," Saira Bano, assistant professor of politics at Thompson Rivers University in Canada, told the ABC.
In response, India has said it will take all necessary steps to protect its national interests.
India's Foreign Ministry has said the country was being unfairly singled out over its purchase of Russian oil.
Hussain Nadim, international relations lecturer at George Washington University, said India's high tariffs were the "result of India running a multi-alignment foreign policy at the global stage, benefiting both from the US and Russia."
He said not only Russian oil deals, but India's reluctance to buy American defence equipment was part of the reason why India faces higher tariffs compared to peers in the region.
"The Trump administration wants India to align with Western interests on core geopolitical issues," Dr Nadim said.
But some analysts warn this tactic may have the opposite effect.
"It seems that this is going to push India towards Russia and China," Dr Bano said.
In the face of uncertainty from Mr Trump's policies, she expected states would adapt and "increase cooperation with each other, rather than relying on the United States."
Meanwhile, with Thailand, Cambodia and Pakistan receiving reduced rates in Donald Trump's latest tariff negotiations, it appears there was a pattern of "good deals" among those who promote his image as a "peacemaker".
Following April's Pahalgam attack, which saw 26 people killed in Indian-administered Kashmir, a military escalation broke out between Pakistan and India.
A ceasefire was agreed to after four days of fighting.
India has repeatedly denied American involvement in the ceasefire.
Despite this, Mr Trump has said multiple times that he brokered peace between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
"Pakistan's military regime recognises that the best way to appease President Trump is by giving him what he wants," Dr Nadim said.
In June, Pakistan said it would nominate the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering peace with India.
"Much of this stems from the Pakistani regime's belief that they can play on Trump's narcissism to curry itself favours. And so far, the strategy is working," Dr Nadim said.
Pakistan initially faced tariffs of 29 per cent.
Ahead of the August 1 deadline, the two countries landed a deal that dropped Pakistan's tariff rate to 19 per cent and increased US investment in the country.
As ceasefire talks were held in Malaysia between Cambodia and Thailand, after the worst fighting between the rival nations in a decade, two tables of diplomats sat in the wings: China and the US.
"Trump's tariff threats likely added indirect pressure on both Cambodia and Thailand to de-escalate quickly," Joanne Lin, senior fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, told the ABC.
A widening border war risked having a severe economic impact.
According to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of political science and international relations at Chulalongkorn University, Mr Trump's reciprocal tariffs were "the last push" that secured a ceasefire.
Washington had initially threatened tariffs of 36 per cent on Thailand and 49 per cent on Cambodia.
Following the ceasefire agreement, both countries saw their "reciprocal tariffs" reduced to 19 per cent.
Indo-Pacific security analyst Hunter Marston said both sides welcomed an active role by the United States, to keep Washington engaged in the region "to balance Beijing's dominant influence."
However, Cambodia went one step further.
Like Pakistan, following a ceasefire agreement, it vowed to nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
According to Professor Pongsudhirak, the move shows Cambodia "knows the game, and is playing the game well."
The nomination could also suggest a way of downplaying relationships with another great power: China.
"By publicly elevating Trump's role in the ceasefire, Cambodia is using the opportunity to recalibrate its image … after years of being viewed as overly aligned with China," Ms Lin said.
"It's probably less about Trump's actual involvement and more about Cambodia's effort to show it has options beyond Beijing."
Nearby, Myanmar and Laos face some of the world's highest tariffs at 40 per cent.
Since 2021, Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war following a military coup that ousted a democratically elected government.
While members of ASEAN have repeatedly pushed for peace, US intervention has been largely absent.
"For those of us from Myanmar who have long been treated as collateral in great-power games, this strategy is all too familiar. Trump's 'peacemaking' is no more than coercive diplomacy disguised as statesmanship," said Burmese observer and PhD candidate, Phyo Win Latt.
Local media have reported that Myanmar's military government was pleased to receive Mr Trump's tariff letter.
Htwe Htwe Thein, an expert on Myanmar and associate professor in International Business at Curtin University, said: "The Myanmar military is an international outcast. Nobody has given them a seat in high-level government-to-government communications. Even a letter saying 'you have a tariff' has delighted them [the junta]."
As Mr Trump promises peace across the globe, a lack of engagement from the US inside Myanmar is puzzling to Dr Thein.
"It makes sense for Trump to take interest, even if it's motivated by trade leverage, or rare earths and geopolitical competition."
Dr Thein said many of Myanmar's pro-democracy groups control land containing rare earths currently being sold to China.
However, the strategy behind the Trump administration was a short-term approach, according to other experts.
"Much of the government is being run on a day-to-day basis from one crisis to the next," Dr Nadim said.
"With that operating mindset, President Trump is functioning at a very base level, securing deals as they come and using all leverage America has to get the best deals, be it in Asia or elsewhere."