Shayne O'Cass' tips, race-by-race analysis for 2025 Bob Charley AO Stakes Day at Royal Randwick

News.com.au

a day ago

Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses Saturday's 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
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CHANGE MY ADDRESS (5) is a great granddaughter of Doomben 10,000 and Coolmore Classic winner, Flitter, who won on a Heavy 10 one day at Gosford. In fact, there are some conspicuous wet trackers close up in the pedigree which accounts for her own easy and super impressive Heavy 10 win at the midweeks. WOLLZEILE (3) stretched the winner of the Woodlands to a neck first-up. Can only improve again you would think. MATIMA (2) kept to the task honourably when splitting two good horses here on May 24.
Bet: CHANGE MY ADDRESS (5) to win
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Hayai Lodge resident CONVERGENT (10) gives away a lot of race experience to the rest of the field but he might hold more natural talent and scope than nearly all of them. That really was a fantastic debut win on the Kensington track on Anzac Day. He trialled at Randwick on May 30 and went really well. Eager to see what he can do here. OUR UPTOWN GIRL (14) and ALLEGRO MISS (15) are among the many chances.
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GOOD BANTER (3) has won twice in 16 starts, both were on Heavy 9s as it happens, and one was the Adrian Knox here where she beat Autumn Angel et al. As for more recent times, her two runs this time have both has 'next time' written all over them. This is that next time. The number of MISS KIM KAR (4) read so well that she simply cannot be left out. That said, this is a better quality Benchmark 78 than she won last start in my opinion and she's got 3kg more to carry.
Bet: GOOD BANTER (3) to win
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VINOLASS (4), a $20,000 Inglis Classic Yearling, has won $68,000 in quick time thanks to her three wins and a second from five outings. The fact that she started $5 in her first TAB Highway (on February 24) says a bit about her. Great fresh and the trial was a ripper. Speaking of trials, you would be hard pressed to find a better one than either of OFF THE PRESS's (13) two. He's raced in two Highways and was fourth in both, one of them was a massive run from last to get within a length of Lisztomania here.
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Just for some context, I really fancied AUTOMNE TREE (6) as a Queensland carnival, even Derby horse, this winter but here is at Randwick on Saturday instead of Eagle Farm. As a minor fan of the son of The Autumn Sun, I can see him peaking, big time, now that he gets to 2000m off decent runs at 1400m, 1600m and 1800m in the build up. Probably could cut and paste a fair bit of all that give the similarities between Automne Tree and HURSTVILLE ZAGREB (1).
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THUNDERLIPS (4) raced in a Champagne and Sires' up in Brisbane when a two-year-old in 2023. Skip ahead a year and he was a fringe Big Dance horse; he could make the 2025 renewal with a bit of luck and good placement. OH DIAMOND LIL (6) is part-owned by Arthur Inglis who shared in Pranker's June Stakes win on this card way back in 1989. Fast and in-form, she's been dealt a winning draw. BLAZING HARRY (7) has some ground to make up on Lil but can do.
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I was very keen indeed on Italian Derby runner-up ROYAL SUPREMACY (8) when he made his Australian debut in the Scone Cup. He was $21 to $14 by the way. Long story short, he paid a very big price for the wide draw and had no room late so that 14 of 14 is in no way reflective of the run or his prospects going forward. QUIETNESS (14) is worth plenty as a broodmare (her third dam is Cherokee Rose) but her overseas form, not to mention her trials, could see her adding a few Down Under wins to her tally which is five from 11 with five placing; nice work.
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CONTEMPORARY (3), the granddaughter of Mnemosyne, has got to be one of the unluckiest horses in Sydney. She is almost totally reliant on outside factors like tempo, track boas, clear running, timing, good rides and all of that. She was one of the runs of the race of the beaten brigade in the Ortensia at Scone. Back to Randwick where her numbers are superb. Ditto that last bit for BRUDENELL (1) who had been drawing good alleys until now. IN FLIGHT (4) is so consistent, so fit and so adept in all ground that she has to go in.
Bet: CONTEMPORARY (3) to win, Daily Double 1st leg 3, 2nd Leg 3
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FLEETWOOD (17) is a James Cummings trained son of his 2018 Black Opal winner, Encryption. This four-year-old has won five from 15 and placed four times; he was stakes placed in a Creswick and fourth in the Warra behind Headwall and Dragonstone. Massive is the only work to describe his Ortensia run and he loves Randwick. ASTERO (8) who gets conditions to suit while Testator Silens could go around at a silly price here. Gosh he was good late last start.
Bet: FLEETWOOD (17) to win, box First 4 Nos. 2, 5, 7, 8, 17, 19
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They say no one places them better than Joe Pride and when you think of it, he does have a lot of horses that win multiple races from not all that many starts. Enter COSMONOVA (3), who is five from 12 at present. You would like to see it Slow rather than Heavy, so much so that Heavy would be a 'deal breaker' for me and I would switch very quickly to the stablemate STORM THE RAMPARTS (4). TANGLEWOOD (1) is potentially good enough to carry this big weight and still win.