SA not ready for fallout if Israel-Iran ceasefire fails, warns UJ professor

The Citizen

a day ago

As the ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds, the world watches with bated breath to see what will happen next between the two regional powers.
To gain insight into the situation, Caxton Local Media spoke to Dr Suzy Graham, professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Johannesburg.
Discussing the ceasefire, Graham explained that although it is still early days, the truce holds real potential, though it remains inherently fragile.
'Its longevity hinges on disciplined diplomacy, credible inspections, and political will from all actors. If any of these break down, especially due to hardliners or indirect aggression via proxies, the truce could unravel quickly,' she said.
For now, however, the signs are cautiously optimistic.
A ceasefire on edge: What's holding it together?
Graham believes the ceasefire was primarily driven by a rapid cycle of escalation and daring diplomacy aimed at avoiding further catastrophic conflict. Although the ceasefire appears to be working, she warned that initial breaches from either side could lead to its deterioration.
She described the thought of a third world war as unthinkable.
'Despite social media speculation, the probability of a full-scale World War III remains low, but not zero,' Graham said.
South Africa's position: Legal, vocal, and diplomatic
Speaking about South Africa's stance on the Israel-Iran conflict and how it aligns with the country's broader foreign policy, Graham said South Africa will almost always call for dialogue in any conflict situation.
'The South African government has been vocal in strongly condemning the recent military strikes on Iran, describing the attacks as violations of international law. It has urged all parties, Iran, Israel, and the USA, to engage in UN-led dialogue, emphasising diplomacy, restraint, and nuclear inspection,' she explained.
Regarding the potential impact on South Africa if the conflict reignites and becomes a wider regional crisis, Graham said the country would likely continue championing international law, human rights, and nuclear non-proliferation.
She noted that South Africa could strengthen its moral leadership among Global South and Muslim-majority countries.
'At the same time, the country could face intense backlash from Israel and Western allies, particularly the USA, Germany, and the UK, especially if Pretoria doubles down on its International Court of Justice genocide case or calls for sanctions.
'South Africa could see reduced goodwill from Western investors or governments, especially if tensions rise over its international legal campaigns or alignment with Iran.'
'In the immediate term, South Africa would likely call for a ceasefire, condemn aggression, and activate international and legal channels. In the short term, it might push for UN and BRICS statements and engage the African Union and Global South partners.
'In the mid-term, it would need to manage economic fallout, reinforce public diplomacy, and maintain BRICS plus solidarity. In the longer term, South Africa could use the crisis to push for UN Security Council reform, nuclear disarmament, and multipolar global governance.'
Graham emphasised that if South Africa is drawn into the conflict, its role would be principled, vocal, and legalistic, not military.
'It may be drawn in politically, but not militarily,' she said.
'The country's focus would remain on shaping the normative global order, not engaging in hard power projection.'
What escalation could mean for South Africa
Although South Africa would not be militarily involved, Graham said a wider Middle East conflict would hit its economy hard, particularly through rising fuel prices, increased trade costs, and inflation.
'An escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could seriously disrupt global oil flows, and South Africa, as an energy-importing nation, would feel the effects quickly and deeply.
'The country's inflation rate, currency, fiscal stability, and household livelihoods would all come under pressure.'
When asked if South Africa is prepared for possible knock-on effects of war, such as cyberattacks or disruptions in trade, Graham said the country is not fully ready for the complex and interconnected consequences of a major regional war involving Iran and Israel.
'While it has some institutional frameworks and economic policy tools, South Africa lacks a coordinated national resilience strategy, particularly for cyber threats and maritime trade disruptions.
'A greater focus on strategic planning, inter-agency coordination, and public-private resilience building is urgently needed.'
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